ENERGY SLIDESHOW Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Updated: September 9, 2021 ENERGY PRICES Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy Brent &WTI WTI & Crude Brent Oil Crude Oil Dollars per barrel Brent (Sep 3 = $73.02) WTI (Sep 3 = $69.15) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 9/3/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration. HenryHenry HubHub Natural & Marcellus Gas Natural Gas Dollars per million Henry Hub (Sep 3 = $4.49) Marcellus (Sep 3 = $3.57) British thermal units 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 9/3/21. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal. RetailRegular Gasoline Gasoline & Diesel& Highway Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD Gasoline Diesel 1 $3.07 $3.33 1A $3.09 $3.29 1B $3.22 $3.48 1C $2.96 $3.24 2 $3.05 $3.28 3 $2.83 $3.10 4 $3.65 $3.65 5 $3.93 $4.02 U.S. $3.18 $3.37 NOTES: Prices are for 9/9/21. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GLOBAL PETROLEUM Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy WorldWorld Oil SupplyOil Supply & Demand & Demand Million barrels per day 104 Q2 102 2021 100 96.5 98 96 94 World 92 consumption 94.8 90 88 World 86 production 84 82 80 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. WorldImplied Oil Change Supply in & World Demand Oil Stocks Million barrels per day 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. OPECOPEC Oil Production Crude Oil Production & Rig Count Million barrels per day 33.0 32.0 31.0 30.0 Aug 29.0 26.78 28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.0 22.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. OECDOECD Commercial Commercial Inventories Oil Inventories Million barrels 3,300 3,200 3,100 Aug 2830 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2010-2014 average 2,600 2,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. OECDWorld Commercial Oil Production Inventories Outages Million barrels per day 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Aug 2.5 2.45 2.0 1.5 OPEC 1.0 Non-OPEC 0.70 0.5 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. NATIONAL OUTLOOK Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy U.S. OilU.S. Production Oil & Gas Production& Rig Count U.S. crude oil production U.S. natural gas production Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day 14 120 13 110 12 100 11 90 10 9 80 8 70 7 60 6 50 5 40 4 30 3 2 20 1 10 0 0 1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017 NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. U.S.U.S. Oil Oil Production Production & &Rig Rig Count Count U.S. crude oil production U.S. oil rig count Million barrels per day Number of active rigs 17 1,700 15 1,500 Jun 1,300 13 11.0 1,100 11 900 9 700 Aug 7 410 500 5 300 3 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 9/8/21. Rig count Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration. GasolineU.S. OilDemand & Gas Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 340 Support activities 300 for oil and gas operations 260 220 Jul 206.5 180 Oil and gas extraction Aug 140 139.0 100 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. CrudeCommercial Oil & Product Crude Oil Inventories Inventories Million barrels 2015-2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 600 550 500 450 400 Jun Jul Aug 448 439 425 350 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/1/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineNatural Demand Gas Inventories Trillion cubic feet 2015 - 2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 4.5 Aug 4.0 Jul 2.87 Jun 2.73 3.5 2.58 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/2/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineGasoline Demand Inventories Trillion cubic feet 2015 - 2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 270 260 250 240 230 220 Jun Aug Jul 232 227 210 229 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/1/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineDistillate Demand Inventories Trillion cubic feet 2015 - 2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 190 180 170 160 Jul 150 Jun 139 138 140 130 Aug 120 137 110 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/1/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineVehicle Demand Miles Traveled Billion miles traveled 290 Jun 273 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide. SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration. GasolineGasoline Demand Consumption Million barrels per day 2015-2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 10.2 Jun Jul 9.8 9.27 9.54 9.4 Aug 9.0 9.48 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks are based on averages of weekly data. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. REGIONAL ACTIVITY Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy TexasTexas Oil Production Oil & Gas Production& Rig Count Texas crude oil production Texas natural gas production Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day 6.0 40 5.5 35 5.0 4.5 30 4.0 3.5 25 3.0 20 2.5 2.0 15 1.5 1.0 10 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. TexasTexas Oil Oil Production Production & &Rig Rig Count Count Texas crude oil production Texas rig count Million barrels per day Number of active rigs 9.5 1000 8.5 900 7.5 800 700 6.5 600 5.5 Jun 4.79 500 4.5 400 Aug 3.5 232 300 2.5 200 1.5 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration. TexasTexas Mining Oil &Sector Gas EmploymentEmployment Number of jobs (thousands) 210 190 170 Support activities 150 for mining 130 Oil and gas extraction Jun 110 102.6 90 70 61.3 50 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TexasDrilled Mining but SectorUncompleted Employment Wells Number of wells 6,000 U.S. basins excluding Permian Basin 5,000 4,000 Jul 3668 3,000 Permian Basin 2289 2,000 1,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. TexasWell Mining Completions Sector Employment by Basin Number of wells 700 600 500 400 Permian Basin 300 Appalachia Eagle Ford 200 Niobrara Haynesville 100 Anadarko Bakken 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.