THE USE OF HUMAN BEHAVIOUR TO INFORM EGRESS MODELING IN STADIUMS DANIELLE AUCOIN A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCE GRADUATE PROGRAM IN CIVIL ENGINEERING YORK UNIVERSITY TORONTO, ONTARIO APRIL 2019 © Danielle Aucoin, 2019 Abstract With growing concerns of public safety in infrastructure where large crowds gather, designing for egress under normal and emergency conditions is pertinent to ensuring efficient and safe conditions in stadia. There is a need for a large database of publicly available pedestrian movement profiles through experiments and the evaluation of relevant case studies. This thesis outlines novel human behaviour data collection at two stadia. Subsequent egress model validation using the MassMotion Advanced Crowd Simulation Software (MassMotion) was performed and measured total egress times. Although demographics and anthropometry in the stands slightly influenced the egress times, the stadium architecture was the governing factor which impeded pedestrian flow under non-emergency conditions. Analysis of a stadium fire case study allowed for evaluation of this conclusion during an evacuation which revealed that behavioural aspects of both occupant and staff may begin to dominate the egress simulation in an emergency context. ii Acknowledgements I would first like to thank my supervisor Dr. John Gales for introducing me to this field, being a great mentor, and making this research venture possible. I would also like to thank those in my research team for being supportive colleagues during my time at York University, including Bronwyn Chorlton, Ranim Dahli, Lauren Folk, and Ben Nicoletta. Those who have provided significant contributions to data collection efforts are thanked and include Chloe Jeanneret, Natalie Mazur, Kate Montgomery, Josh Woods, Kiara Gonzales, and Hailey Todd. These individuals assisted in testing filming equipment and were stationed to monitor and control various cameras during experimental trials. A special thanks to research assistants Katie Chin, Ashna Jagadisan, Julia Ferri, Kaleigh Mackay and Tegan Hyndman for their contributions in data analysis and tabulation. This endeavor was made possible by the Arup UK Fire Group, Arup North Americas Group, the NSERC collaborative research and development program, and the NSERC discovery program. Thank you for the specific guidance and oversight on the project of Dr. Michael Kinsey, Graeme Mouat, Tim Roberts, and William Wong. Elisabetta Carattin is also thanked for her guidance on infrastructure accessibility and inclusivity. Lastly, thank you to Lachlan Miles and Tim Young who provided valuable insight and input into pedestrian modeling techniques and strategies. iii Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ ix Statement of Co-Authorship and Scholarly Outputs.................................................................... xi 1.0 Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Stadium Evacuations .....................................................................................................1 1.2 Human Behaviour During Egress ..................................................................................2 1.2.1 Human Behaviour in the Context of Engineering ..................................................... 2 1.2.2 Variability in Human Behaviour .............................................................................. 4 1.3 Stadium Egress Modeling Tools ....................................................................................5 1.4 Research Motivation .....................................................................................................6 1.4.1 Limited Existing Data and Case Studies ................................................................... 8 1.4.2 Financial Implications .............................................................................................. 9 1.4.3 Human Safety in Stadia .......................................................................................... 10 1.5 Research Focus and Scope .......................................................................................... 11 1.6 Research Objectives .................................................................................................... 12 1.7 Thesis Outline ............................................................................................................. 13 2.0 Chapter 2: Background and Literary Review ................................................................. 15 2.1 Human Behaviour Research ........................................................................................ 15 2.1.1 Dynamic Individual and Group Behaviours ............................................................ 16 2.1.2 Queuing Behaviours............................................................................................... 20 2.1.3 Walking Speeds ..................................................................................................... 22 2.2 Relevant Egress Standards and Guidelines .................................................................. 23 2.2.1 International Egress Standards ............................................................................... 23 2.2.2 Canadian Egress Standards .................................................................................... 26 2.3 MassMotion Egress Modeling Software ...................................................................... 27 2.3.1 Default Agent Speeds ............................................................................................ 28 iv 2.3.2 Social Forces Framework: Agent Movement and Decision Making........................ 28 2.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 30 3.0 Chapter 3: Stadium Egress Performance Under Normal Conditions ............................... 31 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 31 3.2 Experimental Methodology ......................................................................................... 32 3.2.1 Experimental Overview ......................................................................................... 32 3.2.2 Stadium Architectural Layout ................................................................................ 33 3.2.3 Filming Equipment ................................................................................................ 34 3.3 Main Filming Trial One .............................................................................................. 34 3.3.1 Trial One Overview ............................................................................................... 34 3.3.2 Trial One Filming Set-Up ...................................................................................... 36 3.4 Main Filming Trial Two .............................................................................................. 37 3.4.1 Trial Two Overview ............................................................................................... 37 3.4.2 Trial Two Filming Set-Up ...................................................................................... 39 3.5 Experimental Data Analysis ........................................................................................ 40 3.6 Trial One and Trial Two Experimental Results ............................................................ 41 3.6.1 Gate Utilization...................................................................................................... 41 3.6.2 Total Egress Times ................................................................................................ 42 3.6.3 Demographics of Trials .......................................................................................... 45 3.6.4 Facial Observations ................................................................................................ 46 3.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 47 4.0 Chapter 4: Stadium Model Development, Data Validation, and Applications ................. 48 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 48 4.2 Stadium Model Development ...................................................................................... 48 4.2.1 Agent Profiles Development .................................................................................. 50 4.2.2 Agent Pre-Movement Times Development............................................................. 51 4.3 Validation Simulations ...............................................................................................