THE WAR LOBBY: IRAQ AND THE PURSUIT OF U.S. PRIMACY by EDWARD C. DUGGAN A DISSERTATION Presented to the Department of Political Science and the Graduate School of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 2011 DISSERTATION APPROVAL PAGE Student: Edward C. Duggan Title: The War Lobby: Iraq and the Pursuit of U.S. Primacy This dissertation has been accepted and approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy degree in the Department of Political Science by: Jane Kellet Cramer Chairperson/Advisor Lars S. Skålnes Member Daniel J. Tichenor Member Val Burris Outside Member and Kimberly Andrews Espy Vice President for Research & Innovation/Dean of the Graduate School Original approval signatures are on file with the University of Oregon Graduate School. Degree awarded September 2011 ii © 2011 EDWARD C. DUGGAN iii DISSERTATION ABSTRACT Edward C. Duggan Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science September 2011 Title: The War Lobby: Iraq and the Pursuit of U.S. Primacy Approved: _______________________________________________ Dr. Jane K. Cramer In my dissertation I argue that the invasion of Iraq was a part of a larger project by Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to reestablish the unconstrained use of U.S. military power after the defeat of Vietnam. The study presents the best evidence against the alternative explanations that the invasion of Iraq was the result of an overreaction to 9/11, the threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction, a plan to spread democracy in the Middle East, a desire to protect Israel or a plan to profit from Iraqi oil. The study also challenges the leading explanation among academics that emphasizes the role of the neoconservatives in the decision to invade. These academics argue that neoconservatives, such as Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle, successfully persuaded the American President, George W. Bush, and his Vice President, Dick Cheney, of the necessity to eliminate Saddam Hussein by winning an internal policy battle over realists, such as Secretary of State Colin Powell. With their narrow focus on neoconservatives and realists, scholars have largely overlooked a third group of hawkish policy makers, the primacists. This latter group, centered on Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and Vice President Cheney, had a long iv standing goal of strengthening the U.S. military and presidential powers in order to pursue U.S. primacy. This goal manifests itself in the invasion of Iraq, a country in the heart of the geopolitically important, oil-rich region of the Persian Gulf. I demonstrate that it was the primacists, not the neoconservatives, who persuaded the President to go to war with Iraq. Through historical process tracing, especially through a close look at the careers of the major policy actors involved and their public statements as well as declassified documents, I provide strong evidence that these leaders wanted to pursue regime change in Iraq upon taking office. The invasion of Iraq would extend the War on Terror, providing an opportunity to pursue their long-held policy of strengthening the power of the presidency and transforming the military into a high-tech and well-funded force. v CURRICULUM VITAE NAME OF AUTHOR: Edward C. Duggan GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE SCHOOLS ATTENDED: University of Oregon, Eugene University of California, Santa Cruz DEGREES AWARDED: Doctor of Philosophy, Political Science, 2011, University of Oregon Master of Arts, Political Science, 2008, University of Oregon Bachelor of Arts, Political Science, 1995, University of California Santa Cruz AREAS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: International Relations U.S. Foreign Policy, Security and War Studies, International Political Economy, Peace and Conflict Studies, Environmental Politics, the Middle East, and Oil Politics. U.S. Politics Presidential Politics, Electoral Politics, Congressional Politics, Special Interests, and the Military-Industrial Complex. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Instructor, University of Oregon 2011 (Winter), PS 101 Modern World Governments 2010 (Summer), PS 399 Politics of the Persian Gulf Teaching Assistant, University of Oregon 2003-2010, Lower Division: PS 101 Modern World Governments, PS 104 Problems in U.S. Politics, PS 205 Intro to International Relations. 2003-2010, Upper Division: PS 326 U.S. Foreign Policy, PS 340 International Political Economy, PS 349 Mass Media and American vi Politics, PS 399 Genocide in the Modern Age, PS 440 Causes and Prevention of War. Teaching English as a Second Language Abroad 2000–2001, Raytheon Company, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia 1997–1999, Private Contractor for Sumitomo, Kinden, Japan 2002–2003, Seaside High School and Cyprus Continuation School, Seaside, CA 1996–1997, Cantwell Sacred Heart of Mary, Montebello CA 1993–1994, Hillside School, La Canada CA 1989–1993(summers), La Canada School District, CA GRANTS, AWARDS, AND HONORS: 2003-2011, Graduate Teaching Fellowship, University of Oregon March 2010, University of Oregon Department of Political Science Travel Award to present a paper at the WPSA Conference in San Francisco February 2009 University of Oregon Department of Political Science Travel Award to present a paper at the ISA Conference, in New York PUBLICATIONS: Jane K. Cramer and Edward C. Duggan, In Pursuit of Primacy: Why the United States Invaded Iraq, Chapter in Why Did the U.S. Invade Iraq Editors Jane K. Cramer and A. Trevor Thrall, August 2011, Routledge Press Edward C. Duggan and Steve Rothman, “Peak Oil: Will We see it Coming?” Op- Ed, Eugene Register Guard , February 3, 2008, p. B3. vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am especially grateful for my committee chair Jane K. Cramer who helped me develop my ideas and read through countless versions of my argument. I also would like to thank the members of my committee Daniel Tichenor, Lars Skalnes, and Val Burris. Each of the members of my committee had valuable suggestions that helped to move the project along. I also would like to thank the graduate students who read many of the chapters in my dissertation especially Leif Hoffmann and Brent Commerer. I am also very grateful to my father Jack Duggan, my mother Kate Duggan,Vanessa Mousaivizadeh and Moshe Rachmuth for their emotional support. I also would like to thank the professional and gentle touch of my two editors who are not related but have the same last name, Mary Sharon Moore and Colleen Moore viii I would like to dedicate this book to my wife Ellen who made it possible for me to earn my Ph.D. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. WHY IRAQ? THE WAR LOBBY .......................................................................... 1 Questions Asked: Why They Arise........................................................................ 1 Arguments Advanced: Answers Offered ............................................................... 5 Methods: Piecing Together the Discoveries of the Blind Men and the Elephant ..................................................................................................... 8 Plan of the Study .................................................................................................... 10 II. THE CHENEY AND RUMSFELD CONSENSUS IN THE LITERATURE ........ 11 The Blind Men and the Elephant: Understanding All the Parts of the Agenda for U.S. Primacy ............................................................................. 11 Sending a Signal with Shock and Awe: Iraq as an Effective, Unilateral Demonstration of American Military Force ......................................... 12 The Economic Invasion of Iraq: Shrinking the U.S. Government while Expanding the Role of Private Businesses in Foreign and Domestic Policy ......... 14 Contract Nation: Creation of a Private Army in Iraq and on the Home Front ................................................................................................ 14 A Bush Administration of the Corporations, by the Corporations, and for the Corporations .................................................................................. 15 Presidential Supremacy over Foreign Policy: Using the War to Strengthen Presidential Power ........................................................................... 16 A New Way of War in Iraq: Transforming the Military into a Well-Funded, High-Tech Force that Can Act with Devastating Force Anywhere on the Globe, with Lower Casualties ................................................................................ 16 A War for Oil: U.S. Regional Hegemony over the Persian Gulf ........................... 17 x Chapter Page Ensuring Access: An Invasion to Protect the Flow of Oil from the Persian Gulf ..................................................................................................... 18 Peak Oil: The Fear of a Permanent Decline in World Oil Production ............. 19 Oil for Profits: The Greed of the Oil Companies Drives the U.S. to Open Up Access to Iraq ............................................................................... 19 Smoking Guns and Mushroom Clouds: Selling Saddam as an Imminent Threat ..................................................................................... 20 Bringing Bush Back into the Equation: Frequent Foreign Policy Victories plus the Perception of Threat Ensures Electoral Success ............................................................................................. 21 Conclusion: A Comprehensive Agenda for U.S. Hegemony .......................... 23 III. THE PLAN FOR U.S.