Kenneth J. Arrow A Cautious Case for Socialism The discussion of any important social cannot be partly understood; historical study, question must involve an inextricable mixture sociological inquiry, intellectual debate, and of fact and value. The fundamental impulse to the many dimensions of the political process change and especially to great change is a are all ways in which we do communicate perception of present wrong and a vision of values. But my own values are the starting potential right. The initial impulse must still point, though not the terminus. In the oft- be checked for feasibility; we live in a world of quoted words of the sage Hillel, "If I am not limits, and what we desire may not be for myself, then who is for me?" to which he attainable or it may be attainable only at the immediately added, "and if I am not for expense of other high values. There is an others, then who am I?" ancient warning, "Be careful what you dream This methodological preface is by way of of when young; your dreams may come true!" apology for the extent to which this paper is With the painter Braque, then, I can say, "I an intellectual autobiography. Notice the like the rule that corrects the emotion." But adjective, "intellectual." Anyone who knows that presupposes a strong emotion to begin me will not be surprised; I have always with; and it is there I would like to begin. preferred the contemplative to the active life. I Values and emotions are best apprehended prefer the freedom to see matters from several personally, and I will speak of my own viewpoints, to appreciate ironies, and indeed attitudes and their development. This does to change my opinion as I learn something not mean that my values are all that matter, new. To be politically active means to even to me. I hold that others are free and surrender this freedom. I say nothing against autonomous human beings, each capable of activism for others. It is only through the developing his or her own value system of committed that necessary changes come. But equal worth and respect to my own. But by each to his own path. that very token, the values of others must The great issues of socialism and capitalism always retain an element of mystery. The became alive to me, as to so many others, in equal but different emotionally based ax- the Great Depression. My own family was iological drives of others can never be fully severely affected. A precocious high-school communicated. This is not to say that they boy, brought up with excellent newspapers and a family very interested in world events, could hardly help reflecting on the system and its failures. They seemed obvious enough. The This essay was delivered as a lecture at the third Lionel long queues of unemployed at the soup Trilling Seminar of the academic year 1977-78, on April kitchens shown in the newspapers and the 13, at Columbia University and appears here with newsreels, the waves of bank failures and the permission. personal tragedies of the depositors, the 472 gasping struggles of relatives who tried to run there was no unemployment, at a time when small businesses, and the ominous connection the advanced capitalist economies were between unemployment and the rise of spiraling downward or at best stagnating. Nazism were convincing evidence that the The New York Times was the source of this current economic system was a disaster. The favorable information, much more to be idea, sometimes bruited about then, that believed than the Communist party unemployment was the fault of the pamphlets passed out on the streets. To be unemployed—that they were lazy or incom- sure, the Hearst newspapers were telling us petent or whatnot—struck me as laughable. I about famine and repression in the Ukraine; regret to say that this concept has been revived but who would believe them? My family was by some of my fellow economists. hardly radical; indeed, they changed from I was impressed not only by the personal Republicans to New Deal Democrats only tragedies of unemployment but also the under the influence of poverty. But the Hearst clearly anomalous coexistence of desperate newspapers were not respectable; my un- needs with keeping idle the resources, men, willingness to trust them as against the Times and machines, which could meet those needs. had perfectly respectable middle-class I was of course economically illiterate, though justification. considering the standard pre-Keynesian I have spoken so far as if efficiency were the textbook economics this may have been an main value. Indeed, it was true that the advantage. One day I remember working out apparent sheer irrationality of the workings of to my temporary satisfaction an explanation capitalism was a basic condemnation. But as I why the capitalist system could not achieve observed, read, and reflected, the capitalist full employment; it was in effect a Keynesian drive for profits seemed to become a major explanation except that there was no invest- source of evil. Clearly, the individualistic ment at all. I realized, however, that it was a profit drive had something to do with the little too powerful, since there could never uncoordinated inefficiency of capitalism. But, have been any prosperity. more, the drive for profits had other manifestations. The Nye committee, a con- gressional investigating committee, was W hat gave bite and impetus to these engaged in a major investigation of the reflections on the rottenness of the times was munitions industry; its influence over the presence of an alternative possibility. It governments in creating the fears that has become a truism that a scientific theory, improved its sales seemed to be well however incapable of explaining the facts, will documented. The economic explanations of never be displaced except by another theory. imperialism were virtually standard. Charles It is even more true that a social system, Beard and other historians had accustomed political or economic, however bad its us all through their books to seeking an consequences, will be replaced only if there is economic explanation of all political actions. a vision of a better system. The idea of The Constitution represented a certain set of socialism was easily available. One read about economic interests, the Civil War a conflict, it even in textbooks and newspapers, as well sometimes called "irrepressible," of different as in the that major source of education, the profit-seeking groups. Most serious of all, public library. Here we did seem to have a World War I, a tragic living memory, was resolution of our difficulties. Surely, a clearly caused, at least in great measure, by rationally organized, centrally coordinated competition among the capitalist interests of economic system could avoid the instability of the different powers. the capitalist economy and the terrible human It was in this area of political-economic and material costs of unemployment. interactions that Marxist doctrine was most Further, there was such an economy. The appealing. I was never a Marxist in any literal Soviet Union was building and expanding, sense, unlike a great many of my fellow 473 students at the City College, in New York. vital in my attitude toward socialism. The two Irving Kristol has written an evocative article were and are intimately linked in my mind. on the intensity of intellectual life among the Being killed is, after all, a rather extreme form anti-Stalinist Marxists who foregathered in of deprivation of freedom, and in a typical Alcove One and listed the many eminent modern war, the killer is subject to as much social scientists and literary critics who compulsion as the killed. I tended therefore to emerged from this training. It would appear a a rather pacifist position. This position, to be Marxist background is an essential prere- sure, began increasingly to separate me from a quisite for the development of a neoconser- revolutionary socialist position. vative thinker. On the value of freedom, I don't think I ever I could not follow Marxist doctrine very thought it through; it was just a value that literally for a number of reasons. The labor was taken for granted. Obviously, an theory of value was a stumbling block even American education inculcates such a value before I studied economics with any strongly. However, I was naive or conscien- seriousness; there were too many obvious tious enough to take it very seriously and to be phenomena that it ignored. Nevertheless, the shocked at examples of its denial. Discrimi- insight Marxist theory gave into history and nation against blacks—denial of their particularly as to political events was striking: political rights, segregation in housing and the state as the executive committee of the employment—was the most blatant case do- bourgeoisie, the class interpretation of mestically; remember that lynching still political and social conflicts, and the inter- existed. Imperial control of the United States, pretation of war and imperialism as the as in the Philippines, and, much more conflict of competing national capitalist extensively, by Great Britain in India and interests were illuminating and powerful. It Africa, served to demonstrate that political appeared more profound than the alternative freedom had narrow limits under capitalism. versions of the economic interpretation of The freedom of workers seemed to me history; they seemed to be mere muckraking, much restricted. Strike-breaking by fairly the behavior of venal individuals. Marxism direct and brutal methods, as well as more put the system rather than the individual into subtle forms of economic pressure, was a the foreground. common event. Even apart from overt What I drew from this thinking was an conflict, the regular operation of the factory argument for system change.