Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Analysis: Trends & Pedigree Analysing 5 races from day 1 of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival from an alternative viewpoint Guide by Narrowing The Field www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 15th March – 1.30 Cheltenham Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle so that we can apply them to this year’s entries. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends 1 14/15 had at least 2 previous hurdle wins 2 13/15 had either won a bumper or had previously run on the flat 3 13/15 were either making their track debut or had previously won at the track 4 13/15 recorded a top 3 finish on their hurdling debut 5 13/15 recorded a top 3 finish on their NH debut 6 13/15 won last time out (last NH start) 7 13/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 8 13/15 recorded an RPR of at least 140 on 1 of their last 3 starts 9 13/15 were aged 5 or 6 10 12/15 ran within past 45 days 11 12/15 had between 2 & 4 previous hurdle runs 12 12/15 were (IRE) OR (GB) bred 13 12/15 ran to an RPR of at least 137 Last Time Out 14 11/15 made their hurdle debut at a Grade 1 track 15 11/15 had a 100% W-P hurdle S/R 2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle to this year’s entrants. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tot ALTIOR Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y 14/15 CHARBEL Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 13/15 BELLSHILL Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 12/15 BUVEUR D'AIR Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 12/15 TOMBSTONE N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 12/15 MISTER MIYAGI Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N Y Y N Y Y 10/15 NORTH HILL HARVEY N N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 10/15 SUPASUNDAE N Y N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y 10/15 WILLIAM H BONNEY Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N N Y 10/15 HOLLY BUSH HENRY Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N N Y Y N N 9/15 MIN Y N Y N N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N 9/15 PENGLAI PAVILION Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y N N N N 9/15 PETIT MOUCHOIR N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N N N 9/15 SILVER CONCORDE N Y Y Y Y N Y N N N Y Y N Y N 8/15 Trend Follower(s) – ALTIOR Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and applies them to this year’s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s pedigree. DP 14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP 12/15 had 14 points or more in their DP DI 12/14 had a DI of 1.50 or below 11/14 had a DI of 1.13 or below CD 12/14 had a CD of 0.34 or below 10/14 had a CD of 0.10 or below DPA (7/15) - DQ - 3 / 20+ - 4 / PATB - 0 2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race – Snug Fit HOLLY BUSH HENRY 3-0-19-4-0 20+ 26 0.93 0.08 TOMBSTONE 1-1-8-2-0 / 12 1.00 0.08 NORTH HILL HARVEY 2-0-16-4-0 20+ 22 0.83 0.00 PENGLAI PAVILION 3-2-15-8-0 20+ 28 0.81 0.00 ALTIOR 2-3-8-6-1 DQ 20 0.82 -0.05 CHARBEL 4-2-17-5-4 DQ 32 0.83 -0.09 WILLIAM H BONNEY 3-0-4-5-2 / 14 0.56 -0.21 MIN 1-0-11-6-0 / 18 0.57 -0.22 MISTER MIYAGI 1-0-5-0-2 / 8 0.78 -0.25 Can’t be discounted SUPASUNDAE 5-2-15-4-0 20+ 26 1.26 0.31 BELLSHILL 4-0-10-4-0 / 18 1.00 0.22 Not ideal PETIT MOUCHOIR 0-1-3-0-0 / 4 1.67 0.25 Wide of the mark BUVEUR D AIR 3-4-7-2-0 / 16 1.91 0.50 SILVER CONCORDE 1-6-6-1-0 / 14 2.50 0.50 2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Pace analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle – Horse RS Running Style ALTIOR CP/HU CP/HU BELLSHILL CP/FR CP/FR BUVEUR D AIR HU/CP HU/CP CHARBEL CP CP HOLLY BUSH HENRY HU/CP HU/CP MIN CP CP MISTER MIYAGI HU HU NORTH HILL HARVEY HU/CP HU/CP PENGLAI PAVILION CP CP PETIT MOUCHOIR HU/CP HU/CP SILVER CONCORDE CP/HU CP/HU SUPASUNDAE CP/HU CP/HU TOMBSTONE HU/CP HU/CP WILLIAM H BONNEY HU/CP HU/CP HU CP FR ALTIOR BELLSHILL BUVEUR D AIR MISTER MIYAGI CHARBEL HOLLY BUSH HENRY NORTH HILL HARVEY MIN PETIT MOUCHOIR PENGLAI PAVILION SILVER CONCORDE SUPASUNDAE TOMBSTONE WILLIAM H BONNEY This may be up to BELLSHILL to pull the field along although it would also be no surprise to see MIN be right in the firing line as well. Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race – Running Style fr-3 / cp-6 / hu-6 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trial Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 16) ALTIOR -15/16 CHARBEL – 14/16 TOMBSTONE – 13/16 BELLSHILL -12/16 BUVEUR D’AIR – 12/16 Conclusion/Selection(s) ALTIOR (N Henderson) – The course and distance winner has done precious little wrong over hurdle to date and there is a real chance that this larger field will bring about even more improvement from him. He’ll be right at home on the drying ground, De Boinville gets on fantastically with him (5/5), the form of his last race has worked out superbly and there is a real chance he could shake-up the hot fav Min. TOMBSTONE (G Elliott) – I rate this horse highly and I think he’s been undone the last twice in Ireland by small field/tactical affairs. He’ll get cover in a true gallop here and that will suit him much better and he’ll be able to put his G1 form to good use in this contest. Arkle Chase (Grade 1) 15th March – 2.10 Cheltenham Arkle Chase: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase so that we can apply them to this year’s entries. Arkle Chase Trends 1 14/15 no more than 18 previous NH starts 2 14/15 were rated 142+ over hurdles 3 13/15 had a 75%+ W-P chase S/R 4 13/15 1st or 2nd last time out 5 13/15 had previously recorded a top 2 finish at G1 or G2 level 6 13/15 aged 5, 6 or 7 7 13/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 8 13/15 had 3, 4 or 5 starts in current season 9 13/15 finished 1st or 2nd on their Chase debut 10 13/15 ran within past 66 days 11 12/15 finished in the top 2 on all chase starts to date 12 11/15 ran at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level last time out 13 11/15 had 3, 4 or 5 previous chase starts 2016 Arkle Chase Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase to this year’s entrants. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Tot DOUVAN Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13/13 VANITEUX Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13/13 SIZING JOHN Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 11/13 FOX NORTON Y Y N N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y 9/13 ASO Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y 8/13 BALTIMORE ROCK Y N Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y N N 8/13 THE GAME CHANGER N Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y N N 7/13 Trend Follower(s) – DOUVAN | VANITEUX Arkle Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase and applies them to this year’s entries.