Statistical Series (ST) 2004-98 Alberta’s Reserves 2003 and Supply/Demand Outlook 2004-2013 Alberta Energy and Utilities Board ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following EUB staff contributed to this report. Principal Authors: Reserves―Andy Burrowes, Rick Marsh, Nehru Ramdin, Curtis Evans; Supply/Demand and Economics― Marie-Anne Kirsch, LeMoine Philp, Michael Fujda, Joanne Stenson, Keith Sadler, Greig Sankey; Editors: Cal Hill, Farhood Rahnama; Data: Debbie Giles, Gordon Kimber; Judy Van Horne; Production: Liz Johnson, Ona Stonkus, Anne Moran, Jackie Bourgaize, Usha Dosaj, Rob de Grace, Phil Hendy; Communications Advisor: Darin Barter. Coordinator: Farhood Rahnama. For inquiries regarding reserves, contact Andy Burrowes at (403) 297-8566. For inquiries regarding supply/demand, contact Farhood Rahnama at (403) 297-2386. ALBERTA ENERGY AND UTILITIES BOARD Statistical Series (ST) 2004-98: Alberta’s Reserves 2003 and Supply/Demand Outlook 2004-2013 May 2004, Revised June 2004 ISSN 1499-1179 The CD containing the detailed data tables is available for $500 from EUB Information Services (telephone: 403-297-8190). CD-ROM ISSN 1499-1187 Published by Alberta Energy and Utilities Board 640 – 5 Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 3G4 Telephone: (403) 297-8311 Fax: (403) 297-7040 Web site: <www.eub.gov.ab.ca> Contents Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Figures Alberta’s oil reserves and production........................................................................................... 3 Alberta’s total oil supply .............................................................................................................. 4 Marketable conventional gas production and demand ................................................................. 6 1 Energy Prices and Economic Performance...................................................................................1-1 1.1 Global Oil Market............................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Energy Prices ...................................................................................................................1-2 1.3 Canadian Economic Performance....................................................................................1-5 1.4 Alberta Economic Outlook ..............................................................................................1-7 Table 1.1 Major Canadian economic indicators, 2004-2013 ...........................................................1-7 Figures 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago ..................................................................................................1-3 1.2 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead .........................................................................1-3 1.3 Average price of natural gas at plant gate........................................................................1-4 1.4 Canadian economic indicators, 2003 ...............................................................................1-6 1.5 Alberta GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation rates ...............................................1-8 2 Crude Bitumen..............................................................................................................................2-1 2.1 Reserves of Crude Bitumen .............................................................................................2-1 2.1.1 Provincial Summary .............................................................................................2-1 2.1.2 Initial in-Place Volumes of Crude Bitumen .........................................................2-3 2.1.3 Surface-Mineable Crude Bitumen Reserves.........................................................2-5 2.1.4 In Situ Crude Bitumen Reserves ..........................................................................2-6 2.1.5 Ultimate Potential of Crude Bitumen ...................................................................2-7 2.2 Supply of and Demand for Crude Bitumen .....................................................................2-9 2.2.1 Crude Bitumen Production...................................................................................2-9 2.2.1.1 Mined Crude Bitumen ...........................................................................2-10 2.2.1.2 In Situ Crude Bitumen...........................................................................2-11 2.2.2 Synthetic Crude Oil Production..........................................................................2-12 2.2.3 Pipelines .............................................................................................................2-13 2.2.4 Demand for Synthetic Crude Oil and Nonupgraded Bitumen............................2-14 Tables 2.1 In-place volumes and established reserves of crude bitumen .........................................2-2 2.2 Change in established crude bitumen reserves ...............................................................2-2 2.3 Initial in-place volumes of crude bitumen .......................................................................2-4 2.4 Mineable crude bitumen reserves in areas under active development as of December 31, 2003 .................................................................................................2-6 2.5 In situ crude bitumen reserves in areas under active development as of December 31, 2003 .................................................................................................2-8 2.6 Alberta SCO and nonupgraded bitumen pipelines.........................................................2-14 2.7 Export pipelines .............................................................................................................2-15 Figures 2.1 Alberta’s three oil sands areas .........................................................................................2-1 2.2 Comparison of Alberta’s crude oil and crude bitumen reserves......................................2-3 2.3 Crude bitumen resource and reserve categories...............................................................2-6 (continued) EUB Statistical Series (ST) 2004-98: Alberta’s Reserves 2003 and Supply/Demand Outlook / Contents • i 2.4 Alberta crude bitumen production .................................................................................2-11 2.5 Alberta synthetic crude oil production...........................................................................2-13 2.6 Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO.........................................2-16 3 Crude Oil.......................................................................................................................................3-1 3.1 Reserves of Crude Oil......................................................................................................3-1 3.1.1 Provincial Summary .............................................................................................3-1 3.1.2 Reserves Growth ..................................................................................................3-1 3.1.3 Oil Pool Size.........................................................................................................3-2 3.1.4 Pools with Largest Reserve Changes ...................................................................3-4 3.1.5 Distribution by Recovery Type and Geological Formation .................................3-5 3.1.6 Ultimate Potential.................................................................................................3-8 3.2 Supply of and Demand for Crude Oil............................................................................3-10 3.2.1 Crude Oil Supply................................................................................................3-10 3.2.2 Crude Oil Demand..............................................................................................3-14 3.2.3 Crude Oil and Equivalent Supply.......................................................................3-15 Tables 3.1 Reserve change highlights ..............................................................................................3-1 3.2 Breakdown of changes in crude oil initial established reserves ......................................3-2 3.3 Distribution of oil reserves by pool size ..........................................................................3-4 3.4 Major oil reserve changes, 2003 ......................................................................................3-6 3.5 Conventional crude oil reserves by recovery mechanism as of December 31, 2003.......3-7 Figures 3.1 Remaining established reserves of crude oil....................................................................3-2 3.2 Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves.........................................................3-3 3.3 Annual changes to waterflood reserves ...........................................................................3-3 3.4 Oil pool size by discovery year........................................................................................3-4 3.5 Initial established crude oil reserves based on various recovery mechanisms.................3-5 3.6 Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil .........................................3-7 3.7 Alberta’s remaining established oil reserves versus cumulative production ...................3-8 3.8 Growth in initial established reserves of crude oil...........................................................3-9