Proceedings of the 11th United States-Japan Natural Resources Panel for Earthquake Research, Napa Valley, California, November 16–18, 2016 Edited By Shane Detweiler and Fred Pollitz Open-File Report 2017–1133 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior RYAN K. ZINKE, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey William H. Werkheiser, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2017 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit https://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747). For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit https://store.usgs.gov. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. 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ISSN 2331-1258 (online) Contents Resolution of the Eleventh Joint Meeting of the United States-Japan Panel on Earthquake Research (UJNR), November 2016 ............................................................................................................................... 1 Areas of Cooperation ................................................................................................................................. 1 Next Meeting .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Agenda 2016 UJNR Meeting, Napa Valley, California: Oral and Poster Sessions (Presenter in Bold) .......... 3 Session 1: National Policies, Strategies Programs, Networks, and Ongoing/Upcoming Projects .................. 8 Update on the Earthquake Hazards Program ............................................................................................. 8 Overview of the Earthquake Hazards Program ...................................................................................... 8 Earthquake Monitoring and Reporting ................................................................................................... 8 Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment ............................................................................................. 9 Applied Research ................................................................................................................................. 10 External Research Partnerships .......................................................................................................... 11 Communication, Outreach and Science Collaboration ......................................................................... 11 Japanese Earthquake Researches for Seismic and Tsunami Disaster Resilience ................................... 13 The Path Towards Public Earthquake Early Warning for the Western United States ............................... 14 Toward Incorporation of Real-time GNSS Data in the West Coast Earthquake Early Warning System ... 15 References Cited ................................................................................................................................. 16 The 2014 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model ................................................................. 17 Recent Advances in Earthquake Response and Research at the USGS NEIC ....................................... 19 Session 2: The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence ............................................................................. 21 The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake - Overview of the Seismic Activity and New Guidelines for the Seismic Forecast Information after Big Earthquakes ............................................................................................. 21 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 21 Distribution of Hypocenters and Mechanisms of the Earthquakes ....................................................... 21 Analysis of Source Process and Source Scanning Algorithm .............................................................. 22 Earthquake Information Issued by JMA ............................................................................................... 22 New Guidelines for the Seismic Forecast Information after Big Earthquakes ...................................... 22 Strong Ground Motion of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Observed in the Midst of Severely Damaged Area .......................................................................................................................................................... 25 References Cited ................................................................................................................................. 25 Seismicity and Structure Responses Following the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake ................................... 27 Acknowledgment.................................................................................................................................. 28 Fault Model of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Inferred from Hypocenter Distribution and Strong-motion Records ............................................................................................................................................. 29 References Cited ................................................................................................................................. 29 Acknowledgment.................................................................................................................................. 29 Detailed Ground Surface Displacement and Fault Ruptures of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence Revealed by SAR and GNSS Data ......................................................................................... 31 Preface ................................................................................................................................................ 31 Data and Method ................................................................................................................................. 31 Ground Displacement and Fault Model ................................................................................................ 31 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................ 32 Small Displacement Surface Linear Ruptures of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence Detected by ALOS-2 SAR Interferometry ..................................................................................................................... 33 References Cited ................................................................................................................................. 34 iii Earthquake Early Warning for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Performance Evaluation of the Current System and the Next-Generation Methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency ..................................... 35 Session 3: Earthquake Hazards Studies, Recurrence, and Mapping .......................................................... 37 A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast ............................................................ 37 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 37 Operational Aftershock Forecasting for the United States and Globally ................................................... 38 References Cited ................................................................................................................................. 39 Incorporating ground motions from 3-D earthquake simulations into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model ....................................................................................................................................................... 41 Reference Cited ................................................................................................................................... 42 Supercycles and Synchronization Signatures in Synthetic Seismic Sequences ....................................... 43 References Cited ................................................................................................................................. 44 Possibility of Large Seismic Slip on Creeping Fault Segments and Deeper Creeping Fault Extensions .. 45 References Cited ................................................................................................................................. 46 Correlations Between Fault Zone and