Contemporary Security INDIA’S Challenges Edited by Michael Kugelman INDIa’s Contemporary SECURITY CHALLENGES Essays by: Bethany Danyluk Michael Kugelman Dinshaw Mistry Arun Prakash P.V. Ramana Siddharth Srivastava Nandini Sundar Andrew C. Winner Edited by: Michael Kugelman ©2011 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C. www.wilsoncenter.org Available from : Asia Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 www.wilsoncenter.org ISBN 1-933549-79-3 The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, es- tablished by Congress in 1968 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., is a living national memorial to President Wilson. The Center’s mis- sion is to commemorate the ideals and concerns of Woodrow Wilson by providing a link between the worlds of ideas and policy, while fostering research, study, discussion, and collaboration among a broad spectrum of individuals concerned with policy and scholarship in national and international affairs. Supported by public and private funds, the Center is a nonpartisan institution engaged in the study of national and world affairs. It establishes and maintains a neutral forum for free, open, and informed dialogue. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publi- cations and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advi- sory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. The Center is the publisher of The Wilson Quarterly and home of Woodrow Wilson Center Press, dialogue radio and television, and the monthly news-letter “Centerpoint.” For more information about the Center’s activities and publications, please visit us on the web at www.wilsoncenter.org. Lee H. Hamilton, President and Director Board of Trustees Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair Sander R. Gerber, Vice Chair Public members: Melody Barnes, designated appointee from within the Federal Government; Hon. James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; Hillary R. Clinton, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; G. Wayne Clough, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Arne Duncan, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; David Ferriero, Archivist of the United States; James Leach, Chairman, National Endowment for the Humanities; Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Private Citizen Members: Charles E. Cobb, Jr.; Robin Cook; Charles L. Glazer; Carlos M. Gutierrez; Susan Hutchinson; Barry S. Jackson; Ignacio E. Sanchez Contents Looking In, Looking Out: Surveying India’s 5 Internal and External Security Challenges Michael Kugelman India’s Maoist Insurgency: Evolution, Current 29 Trends, and Responses P.V. Ramana At War With Oneself: Constructing Naxalism 46 as India’s Biggest Security Threat Nandini Sundar India’s Strategic and Political Environment 69 Siddharth Srivastava The Rationale and Implications of India’s Growing 77 Maritime Power Arun Prakash The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement and its 89 Proliferation, Energy, and Environmental Implications Dinshaw Mistry The United States, India, the Indian Ocean, and 99 Maritime Elements of Security Cooperation Andrew C. Winner | 1 | Perceptions and Expectations of the India-U.S. 119 Defense Relationship Bethany Danyluk Recent Asia Program Publications 132 | 2 | Glossary AFRICOM U.S. Africa Command AOR Area of responsibility BJP Bharatiya Janata Party CENTCOM U.S. Central Command CISMOA Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement CPI Communist Party of India CPI (ML) Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) CRPF Central Reserve Police Force DAE Department of Atomic Energy DPP Defense Procurement Policy FIR First Information Report FMCT Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty GDP Gross domestic product GW Gigawatt HADR Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief IAF Indian Air Force IONS Indian Ocean Naval Symposium IOR Indian Ocean Region Kg Kilogram LSA Logistics Support Agreement LWR Light-water reactor MCC Maoist Communist Center MCCI Maoist Communist Center of India MEA Ministry of External Affairs MHA Ministry of Home Affairs | 3 | MMRCA Indian Air Force medium multi-role combat aircraft MOD Ministry of Defense MOU Memorandum of Understanding MW Megawatt NPT Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group PACOM U.S. Pacific Command PDFI People’s Democratic Front of India PHWR Pressured heavy-water reactor PWG People’s War Group QDR Quadrennial Defense Review RDF Revolutionary Democratic Front Rs. Rupees SATP South Asia Terrorism Portal SEZ Special Economic Zone SPO Special Police Officer SRE Security-related expenditure TUF Tactical United Front UNDP United Nations Development Program UP Uttar Pradesh UPA United Progressive Alliance | 4 | Looking In, Looking Out: Surveying India’s Internal and External Security Challenges MICHAEL KUGEL M AN ndia is the world’s largest democracy, and one of its fastest-growing economies. The country is celebrated for its educated professional Iclass, its urban-based prosperity, and its Bollywood-fueled cultural influence abroad. Commentators wax effusive about its extraordinary “growth story” and rising global clout. A 2010 joint study by the U.S. National Intelligence Council and the European Union declared it the world’s third-most powerful nation.1 India, to borrow a government slo- gan first coined in 2003, is indeed “shining.” This cheery narrative, however, masks a parallel reality about India. While parts of the country bask in the glow of new-found affluence, others continue to toil in the gloom of abject poverty. This other side of India is also riven by violence and unrest, which increasingly targets the government. Meanwhile, even as India takes on the trappings of a global power, it remains deeply concerned about security developments beyond its borders. Lurking beneath India’s recent triumphs are internal and ex- ternal security challenges that may well intensify in the years ahead. CHALLENGES FROM WITHIN India’s billion-strong population is not only both prosperous and poor, but also marvelously diverse. It is comprised of a rich mosaic of ethnici- ties, cultures, and religions. Yet while these groups largely coexist peace- fully, periods of violent activity often break out. As the Economist notes, “Outside the cosseted places where rich Indians and foreigners gather, Indians have long been used to conflict and terror.”2 Michael Kugelman is program associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. | 5 | Michael Kugelman Homegrown Violence This violence features a dizzying array of perpetrators and victims. Low- caste dalits, despite reductions in caste prejudice, continue to be terror- ized; the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management registered 27,000 “caste-crimes” against dalits in 2007. Right-wing political parties such as the Shiv Sena (and its more violent offshoots) periodically spon- sor attacks on migrant workers, and have driven terrified laborers from the western state of Maharashtra. Nearby, in the southwestern states of Kerala and Karnataka, and in the eastern state of Orissa, Hindu national- ists target Christian minorities. Meanwhile, in the northeast, more than 10,000 people have died from separatist violence over the last decade. Finally, Islamic extremists, led by an outfit called Indian Mujahideen, have unleashed attacks in Indian cities nationwide. Over a period of several months in 2008, violence exploded. The Indian Mujahideen sparked a summer bombing frenzy, killing about 140 people across Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, and New Delhi. In September, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh admitted to major deficiencies in intelligence-gathering, and announced the hiring of additional policemen and the installation of more closed-circuit secu- rity cameras. Yet just a few weeks later, a series of bombs detonated in Assam state, a hotbed of separatist militancy, killing nearly 80 people. Meanwhile, a spasm of anti-Christian violence—triggered by the slaying of a charismatic Hindu preacher in late August—continued unabated. Orissa suffered the brunt of the attacks, with thousands of homes de- stroyed and hundreds of churches damaged. In one particularly egre- gious incident, as reported by the New York Times, a “Hindu mob” forced a Catholic priest and nun out of their home, stripped them, paraded them around the streets, and raped the nun.3 In another case notable for its brutality, “radical Hindus” entered a Pentecostal church in Mumbai, assaulted worshippers, and then stripped and beat the church preacher “senseless” before “leaving him unconscious in the street.”4 As this conflict raged across the nation, Indians reacted with alarm. Many faulted New Delhi for its uneven response, and accused the gov- ernment of inaction in the face of anti-Christian aggression. Some feared a threat to India’s long traditions of pluralism and secularism, and others spoke of an increasingly radicalized society. One commentator warned | 6 | Looking In, Looking Out: Surveying India’s Internal and External Security Challenges that “unless something is done to quell rising Hindu fundamentalism,” the Bajrang Dal—a virulently hard-line Hindu nationalist group—could become “India’s Taliban.”5 Indians also underscored a striking characteristic of the violence: its homegrown nature. With the exception of Assam’s separatist strife (which officials believed was orchestrated by Bangladesh-based mili- tants), those