Washington University in St. Louis Washington University Open Scholarship Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations Arts & Sciences Summer 8-15-2018 Preventing Extinction of At-Risk Plant Species in a Complex World Holly Lee Bernardo Washington University in St. Louis Follow this and additional works at: https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/art_sci_etds Part of the Biodiversity Commons, Climate Commons, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, and the Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons Recommended Citation Bernardo, Holly Lee, "Preventing Extinction of At-Risk Plant Species in a Complex World" (2018). Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1609. https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/art_sci_etds/1609 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Arts & Sciences at Washington University Open Scholarship. It has been accepted for inclusion in Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Washington University Open Scholarship. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN ST. LOUIS Division of Biology & Biomedical Science Evolution, Ecology & Population Biology Dissertation Examination Committee: Scott A. Mangan, Chair Tiffany M. Knight, Co-Chair Matthew Albrecht Jonathan Myers Rachel Penczykowski Adam Smith Preventing Extinction of At-Risk Plant Species in a Complex World by Holly Lee Bernardo A dissertation presented to The Graduate School of Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 2018 St. Louis, Missouri © 2018, Holly Lee Bernardo Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. v Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... vi Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1: Introduction to the Dissertation ..................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Chapter Overview ............................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Population Modeling Framework .................................................................................... 6 1.4 Literature Cited ................................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 2: Increased drought frequency alters the optimal management strategy of an endangered plant ...................................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Abstract .......................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Methods .......................................................................................................................... 16 2.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 22 2.5 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 26 2.6 Literature Cited .............................................................................................................. 30 2.7 Tables and Figures ......................................................................................................... 35 Chapter 3: Count population viability analysis finds that interacting local and regional threats affect the viability of a rare plant ...................................................................................... 47 3.1 Abstract .......................................................................................................................... 48 3.2 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 50 3.3 Methods .......................................................................................................................... 52 3.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 61 3.5 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 62 3.6 Literature Cited .............................................................................................................. 67 3.7 Tables and Figures ......................................................................................................... 72 Chapter 4: Using long term population monitoring data to prioritize conservation action among rare plant species in the Western Great Lakes region ....................................................... 79 4.1 Abstract .......................................................................................................................... 80 4.2 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 81 4.3 Methods .......................................................................................................................... 83 ii 4.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 90 4.5 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 91 4.6 Literature Cited .............................................................................................................. 99 4.7 Tables and Figures ....................................................................................................... 102 Chapter 5: Covarying threats and non-additive effects among threats lead to conflicting priorities in rare plant conservation ............................................................................................ 113 5.1 Abstract ........................................................................................................................ 114 5.2 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 116 5.3 Methods ........................................................................................................................ 119 5.4 Results .......................................................................................................................... 130 5.5 Discussion .................................................................................................................... 132 5.6 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................ 139 5.7 Tables and Figures ....................................................................................................... 144 Chapter 6: Conclusion................................................................................................................. 153 6.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 154 6.2 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................ 158 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................. 159 Appendix B ................................................................................................................................. 168 Appendix C ................................................................................................................................. 172 Appendix D ................................................................................................................................. 233 Appendix E ................................................................................................................................. 247 iii List of Figures Figure 2.1: Life cycle diagram for Astragalus bibullatus ..............................................................40 Figure 2.2: Vital rate values with 95% confidence intervals. A) Survival probabilities. B) Growth and stasis probabilities. C) Fecundity vital rates. D) Population growth rates (). .........................................................................................................41 Figure 2.3: Heat map of simulation results of the probability of extinction. .................................44 Figure 2.4: Heat map of simulation results of the median time to extinction. ...............................45 Figure 2.5: Heat map of simulation results of the final population size. .......................................46