Committee on Climate Change Research to update the evidence base for indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England Charles Ffoulkes, Harriet Illman, Ben Hockridge, Lucy Wilson and Sarah Wynn Final Report 12 April 2019 ADAS GENERAL NOTES Project No: 1030117-1 (05) Title: Research to update the evidence base for indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England In response to CCC Tender Reference Number BF/0918. Research specification: To update indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England. Client: Adaptation Committee of the Committee on Climate Change Date: 12 April 2019 Office: ADAS Oxford, 11D Park House, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxford, OX14 4RS Status: Final Report Citation: ADAS (2019) Research to update the evidence base for indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England. Report to the Committee on Climate Change. This document has been approved by: Lead Author: Charles Ffoulkes Position: Principal Consultant, Sustainable Food and Farming, ADAS Date: 12 April 2019 Technical Reviewer: Lucy Wilson Position: Associate Director, Environmental Informatics, ADAS Date: 12 April 2019 Quality Reviewer: Sarah Wynn Position: Managing Director, Sustainable Food and Farming, ADAS Date: 12 April 2019 RSK ADAS Ltd (ADAS) has prepared this report for the sole use of the client, showing reasonable skill and care, for the intended purposes as stated in the agreement under which this work was completed. The report may not be relied upon by any other party without the express agreement of the client and ADAS. No other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this report. Where any data supplied by the client or from other sources have been used, it has been assumed that the information is correct. No responsibility can be accepted by ADAS for inaccuracies in the data supplied by any other party. The conclusions and recommendations in this report are based on the assumption that all relevant information has been supplied by those bodies from whom it was requested. No part of this report may be copied or duplicated without the express permission of ADAS and the party for whom it was prepared. Where field investigations have been carried out, these have been restricted to a level of detail required to achieve the stated objectives of the work. This work has been undertaken in accordance with the quality management system of RSK ADAS Ltd. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The ADAS Project Team Prepared by: Charles Ffoulkes, Principal Consultant Harriet Illman, Senior Consultant Ben Hockridge, GIS and Remote Sensing Consultant Reviewed by: Lucy Wilson, Associate Director, Environmental Informatics at ADAS Sarah Wynn, Managing Director, Sustainable Food and Farming at ADAS The Committee on Climate Change Project manager: Brendan Freeman (AC Natural Environment lead) AC of the CCC: Kathryn Brown, AC Head of Adaptation David Style (AC Water, Business lead) Andrew Russell (AC Flooding lead) Gemma Holmes (AC Built Environment, Health and Infrastructure lead) Data and information providers We would like to thank a number of organisations that contributed data, information or support for the analysis provided in this report: Adaptation Committee (AC); Association of British Insurers (ABI); Asthma UK; BMC Public Health; Business Continuity Institute (BCI); Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH); Cranfield University; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra); European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC); Environment Agency (EA); Federation of Small Businesses (FSB); Food Standards Agency (FSA); Forestry Commission (FC); Highways England (HE); Home Office; Living Roofs; Met Office; National Flood Forum (NFF); Natural England (NE); Network Rail; National Health Service (NHS); Office for National Statistics (ONS); Ofwat; Ordnance Survey (OS); Oxford Brookes University; Public Health England (PHE); Rural Payments Agency (RPA); Statista; and Wine Great Britain (WineGB). Expert Review Group We would also like to thank a number of individuals that reviewed the draft report and provided feedback on the indicators relevant to their sectors: Ece Ozdemiroglu (AC/Eftec); Emer OConnell (PHE); Georgina Mace (University College London); Judith Stuart (Defra); Kim Dowsett (EA); Lisa Constable (Network Rail); Lisa Winfield (EA); Mark Broadmeadow (FC); Mike Morecroft (NE); Olly Watts (RSPB); Richard Dawson (AC/Newcastle University); Rob Gazzard (FC); and Simon Duffield (NE). Report to the Committee on Climate Change i Research to update the evidence base for indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England © ADAS (2019) | 1030117-1 (05) CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research purpose .............................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Approach ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.4 Scope and interpretation of climate ................................................................................. 2 2 UPDATED INDICATORS ................................................................................................ 3 2.1 Rate of development of properties in areas at risk of flooding .................................... 3 2.2 Area of impermeable surfacing in urban areas .............................................................. 8 2.3 Area of urban greenspace .............................................................................................. 12 2.4 Incidents and delays to rail and strategic road network ............................................. 14 2.5 Total annual spend on resilience measures by all water companies ....................... 22 2.6 Water consumption per capita ....................................................................................... 27 2.7 Water leakage ................................................................................................................... 28 2.8 Percentage of properties with water meters ................................................................ 31 2.9 Total water demand from key sectors ........................................................................... 34 2.10 Total water demand against current and future water scarcity ................................. 39 2.11 Number of hot days and/or warm days per year ......................................................... 41 2.12 Impacts of wildfire............................................................................................................. 44 2.13 Incidents of harmful algal blooms .................................................................................. 49 2.14 Change in habitats in favourable condition .................................................................. 52 2.15 Agricultural land / forest converted to development .................................................... 55 2.16 Change in agricultural area projected to become climatically unsuitable ................ 58 2.17 Number of flood warnings issued .................................................................................. 60 2.18 People with chronic respiratory conditions ................................................................... 64 2.19 Weather-related insurance claims ................................................................................. 69 2.20 Number of wine producing vineyards ............................................................................ 74 3 UPDATED EVIDENCE BASES..................................................................................... 78 3.1 Number of care facilities that experience overheating ............................................... 78 3.2 Number of homes with property-level flood protection ............................................... 83 3.3 Particulate or other pollution episodes linked to severe weather ............................. 85 3.4 Climate-sensitive pathogens and vectors ..................................................................... 88 3.5 Exotic fruit crops grown ................................................................................................... 93 Report to the Committee on Climate Change ii Research to update the evidence base for indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England © ADAS (2019) | 1030117-1 (05) 3.6 Agricultural or timber losses from climate-sensitive pests or pathogens ................. 94 3.7 Changes in soil health ................................................................................................... 106 3.8 Number of farms implementing water efficiency measures ..................................... 110 3.9 Displacement due to flood events ............................................................................... 115 3.10 Mental health impacts of flooding ................................................................................ 118 3.11 Heat-related deaths per year ........................................................................................ 120 3.12 Work or school days lost as a result of severe weather ........................................... 125 3.13 Businesses with weather-related business continuity plans .................................... 127 3.14 Sales of