No. 01 Aug 03 A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence – Threats Fort Leavenworth, Kansas 66027 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 2 A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century Table of Contents Preface ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 7 Scope of Problem .........................................................................................................................................8 Purpose................................................................................................................................................................9 Approach to the Topic ...........................................................................................................................10 Chapter 1 Nature and History of Terror ..................................................................... 11 Section I: What is Terrorism ............................................................................................................11 Section II: Historical Overview of Terrorism.......................................................................20 Chapter 2 Terrorist Behaviors, Motivations, and Characteristics..................... 28 Section I: Terrorist Behavior............................................................................................................28 Section II: Impact of Terrorist Goals & Motivations on Planning........................33 Section III: Terrorist Characteristics .........................................................................................37 Chapter 3 Terrorist Group Organization.................................................................... 39 Section I: Terrorist Group Structure..........................................................................................39 Section II: Categories of Terrorist Organizations .............................................................44 Section III: Knowledge Exchange and Proliferation Between Organizations .................................................................................................................................................................................47 Chapter 4 Terrorism and U.S. Forces........................................................................... 49 Section I: Potential Adversaries and Their Motivations ...............................................51 Section II: Considerations in Targeting U.S. Forces........................................................53 Section III: Categorizing Terrorist Groups by Capability..........................................57 Chapter 5 The Terrorist Threat to U.S. Forces......................................................... 63 Section I: Categories of U.S. Forces .............................................................................................63 Section II: Terrorist Threat to Deployed Forces...............................................................64 Section III: Terrorist Threat to Deployable Forces..........................................................71 Section IV: Terrorist Threat to Non-Deployable Forces ..............................................78 Chapter 6 Evolution and Future of Terrorism .......................................................... 85 Section I: The Evolution of Terrorism .......................................................................................85 Section II: Future Trends in Terrorism....................................................................................91 Section III: The Future of Conflict ...............................................................................................98 Appendix A Terrorist Threat to Combatant Commands .................................... 107 General............................................................................................................................................................107 U.S. Northern Command ...................................................................................................................108 U.S. Southern Command ...................................................................................................................109 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 3 U.S. European Command ................................................................................................................110 U.S. Central Command .......................................................................................................................113 U.S. Pacific Command .........................................................................................................................114 Appendix B Terrorist Planning Cycle......................................................................... 117 Phase I: Broad Target Selection ...................................................................................................117 Phase II: Intelligence Gathering and Surveillance..........................................................118 Phase III: Specific Target Selection ...........................................................................................119 Phase IV: Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning..............................................................119 Phase V: Rehearsals...............................................................................................................................120 Phase VI: Actions on the Objective ............................................................................................120 Phase VII: Escape and Exploitation ..........................................................................................121 Appendix C Terrorist Operations and Tactics ........................................................ 123 Terrorist Operations .............................................................................................................................123 Tactics and Techniques .......................................................................................................................127 International Incidents – 1997........................................................................................................130 Appendix D Firearms........................................................................................................ 133 Handguns.......................................................................................................................................................135 Submachine Guns....................................................................................................................................139 Assault Rifles ..............................................................................................................................................142 Sniper Rifles ................................................................................................................................................145 Shotguns.........................................................................................................................................................148 Appendix E Improvised Explosive Devices ............................................................... 151 General............................................................................................................................................................151 Explosive Charges...................................................................................................................................152 Common Trigger Devices ..................................................................................................................154 Types of IEDs .............................................................................................................................................157 Commercial Product Modification .............................................................................................160 Covert Firearms .......................................................................................................................................160 Evacuation Distance Tables .............................................................................................................161 Appendix F Conventional Military Munitions......................................................... 163 General............................................................................................................................................................163 Fragmentation Grenades ...................................................................................................................163 Rocket Propelled Grenade................................................................................................................165 Air Defense Weapons............................................................................................................................166 Bombs and Artillery ..............................................................................................................................167