Infrastructure journal - Research & Analysis - Infrastructure Journal: Global PPP/PFI Outl... Page 1 of 14 Muhabbat Mahmudova 21 September 2011 Global PPP/PFI Outlook H2 2011: Volumes up despite low activity Over the first eight months of 2011, an array of interesting projects and related developments were recorded in the global public-private partnerships (PPP) market. Admittedly, there was also a mixture of disappointing economic data, a number of policy and regulation announcements across several jurisdictions, sovereign-debt problems in Europe and a US downgrade – all of which shaped the global economic climate in general and affected the performance of PPP market as we approach the end of the current calendar year. The current scenario, a harbinger for the remaining months in 2011, is that debt is scarce and expensive with regional disparities, the secondary market has come under pressure and M&A activity has suffered. Furthermore, the uncertainty over future liquidity in the debt markets will persist for some time yet as governments introduce financial regulations tailored to their macro prudential concerns. Different regions do not operate in a homogenous market, and each country within the region prioritises and supports PPP infrastructure in a different way and through different policy priorities. However, despite geographic location, successful PPP projects will have to be better tuned to changing market conditions; assets should be structured to a workable format that investors can take on. Hard economic reality made it a necessity for many governments to fund investments in social infrastructure and transport, and the need to involve the private sector has become more acute. Following the financial crisis and public spending cuts that followed - the private sector’s expertise and capital would be needed to meet the scale of financing required. Despite government spending cuts, the PPPs model of procurement is not going to wane. Quite the contrary, there is now increased support for PPPs to boost productivity, competitiveness and economic activity. The financing volume in the first half of this year shows that commercial debt for infrastructure assets especially for PPPs is available. In addition, PPPs are also enjoying a greater level of financing from governments and international development banks. The challenges for the success of PPPs for some governments, new to PPP-structured infrastructure, will be to prioritise time and efforts to devise the right environment for the model and foster a better understanding of PPPs. Indeed creating PPP strategy and devising PPP projects is more complex than the traditional government procurement, which for many countries was the only way in the past to build infrastructure. For some more mature PPP markets, at present the lessons need to be learned from past experiences and from failures of PPP programmes – mainly on how to structure PPPs to ensure cost-effectiveness, simplicity, efficiency and timely delivery. Below, IJ analysts scrutinise the market activity in the first half of this year in depth, and examine the future outlook for the asset class. Global Headline Figures & Overview H1 2011 The global PPP market in the first half of this year totalled US$31.4 billion in capital investments; up 5.8 per cent over the corresponding period last year on an annualised basis. However, fewer PPP projects reached financial close. The number of project finance deals that reached financial close in H1 2011 fell 25.6 per cent to 61 transactions – down from 82 transactions in H110. The downward trend in PPP transactions making it to financial close has been witnessed in the market in each first half year period(s) since 2008. Interestingly, the current first half year differs from the previous periods in a way that the fall in the deal count did not result in the fall in the market volume. Investment volumes seem to have stabilised and the amount of investment capital increased, albeit to a reduced number of deals in the global PPP market. Overall, fewer countries financed PPP projects – only 13 countries were active in closing deals in H1 2011, down from 19 countries in the corresponding period last year. Across the globe, only India, Australia and Canada saw an increase in their deal counts in comparison to the previous year. In Europe, the ongoing debt crisis and growing fiscal consolidation in the UK, Spain, France, Germany, Ireland, and Portugal resulted in reduction of the active pipeline and projects ready and able to progress to financial close. Deal count fell across all the sectors – by 31 per cent in Transport, by 18.4 per cent in Social infrastructure, as well as Water and Telecoms. A further break-up of available data reveals Social infrastructure dominated the PPP market with 40 projects, followed by Transport with 18 projects, and Water – only three projects. Volume of investment tells a different story as more money has been available – H1 2011 was characterised by the overall improvement in the banks’ lending ability, which signals stronger confidence of lenders in PPP infrastructure and in some markets (Australia, Canada) better economics for investments in comparison to H1 2010 but also H1 2009. Thus fewer number of Social infrastructure deals attracted a total of US$12 billion, of which US$10 billion was debt. Additionally, 60 per cent of the money went to finance four multi-billion defence and hospital projects in France, Canada and Australia. Transport PPP projects attracted US$17.7 billion, of which US$12.6 billion was commercial debt allocated to 18 projects in the first half of this year, in comparison to H1 2010 when bank lending totalled US$9.5 billion but spread across 26 projects. Water & Sewage sector continued to slide as little private investment capital was available to this sector in the form of PPPs and the number of deals dipped to three deals this half year. However, the pipeline for water PPP has been growing steadily in several countries and we expect a few deals to progress to financial close next year, notably: • Peru’s: US$165 million La Chira Wastewater, and US$155 million Aguas de Lima Sur II • US$1 billion Monterrey VI Water Transfer PPP, Mexico • US$1.4 billion Isabela Dams PPP, Philippines • US$250 million Mugarraq Wastewater PPP, Bahrain • Umm al-Hayman Wastewater Expansion PPP, Kuwait • US$430 million Ashod Desalination PPP, Israel • Erongo Desalination PPP, Namibia • US$300 million Neva Water PPP, Russia • Evan-Thomas Water and Wastewater PPP, Canada • US$382 million Mundaring Water Treatment PPP, Australia Chart 1 http://www.ijonline.com/Articles/72560 3/20/2012 Infrastructure journal - Research & Analysis - Infrastructure Journal: Global PPP/PFI Outl... Page 2 of 14 (http://www.ijonline.com/cmsv2/Images/Uploaded/263-17-44-13-75_crp_LG.jpeg) © Infrastructure Journal 2011 Overall, as deal activity fell across all sectors, and some countries, the monthly deal activity in H1 2011 shows a sharp downsizing of the global PPP market. The months of April and May had a meagre deal flow. Private financing of PPP infrastructure goes predominantly to Greenfield projects. In H1 2011, from the total 61 transactions, 57 projects counted for new-built PPP assets, the bulk of investments concentrated on these projects - around US$29 billion. Secondary market activity was negligible in the first half of this year – a total of US$1.7 billion in 2 projects - unlike the equivalent period last year when the volume of refinancing reached US$3 billion spread over 10 transactions. Table 1 (Source: Infrastructure Journal) Western Europe remains the largest region for PPP investments, where almost 46 per cent of the total global investment capital was focused in H111. However, the region saw a sharp dip in investments and the number of deals in comparison to the equivalent period last year. This half year, multi-billion dollar projects made up the lion’s share of the PF investments in the global PPP market. The top 10 projects worth US$22.7 billion made up 72 per cent of the market, compared to 58 per cent market share in the first half 2010 when the total of 9 multi-billion projects attracted US$17.3 billion in investments. Largest PPP transactions in Transport, Social Infrastructure and Water sectors are listed in the tables below. Table 2 (http://www.ijonline.com/cmsv2/Images/Uploaded/263-17-59-57-202_crp_LG.jpeg) Table 3 http://www.ijonline.com/Articles/72560 3/20/2012 Infrastructure journal - Research & Analysis - Infrastructure Journal: Global PPP/PFI Outl... Page 3 of 14 (http://www.ijonline.com/cmsv2/Images/Uploaded/263-18-1-38-361_crp_LG.jpeg) Table 4 (http://www.ijonline.com/cmsv2/Images/Uploaded/263-18-1-56-736_crp_LG.jpeg) (Source: Infrastructure Journal 2011) Financing Trends European debt crisis has seen little sign of abating since the start of 2011 and continues to deepen market pessimism about prospects for infrastructure investments in the region. Higher political and regulatory risks are now a reality across European markets where governments seem to be running out of solutions to bring down national debt levels and resolve the Eurozone crisis. Many investors have spoken of waning trust in governments’ ability to meet their commitments to PPP infrastructure in the short-term in 2011 as well as next year. The banking community, especially in Europe, now operates in a heightened political and regulatory risk environment where banks’ appetite for new lending has become more blunted. For many European banks there are now fears about solvency of sovereigns, which may translate into potential liquidity problems. Despite this, none of the top banks seem to be reducing their lending to PPP projects. In H1 2011, overall lending to PPP projects increased across the top lending banks in comparison to full year figures in the years 2009 and 2010; a marked improvement in relative terms.