Syria—A Decade of Lost Chances Repression and Revolution from Damascus Spring to Arab Spring By Carsten Wieland Syria—A Decade of Lost Chances Repression and Revolution from Damascus Spring to Arab Spring © 2012 By Carsten Wieland Cune Press, Seattle 2012 Hardback ISBN 978-1-61457-001-1 $34.95 Paperback ISBN 978-1-61457-002-8 $19.95 eBook ISBN 978-1-61457-003-5 $4.95 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Wieland, Carsten. Syria--a decade of lost chances : repression and revolution from Damascus Spring to Arab Spring / by Carsten Wieland. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-61457-001-1 (hardback : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1- 61457-002-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-61457-003-5 (ebook) 1. Syria--Politics and government--2000- 2. Syria- -Social conditions--1971- 3. Political persecution--Syria- -History--21st century. 4. Protest movements--Syria- -History--21st century. 5. Assad, Bashar, 1965- I. Title. DS98.6.W528 2012 956.9104’2--dc23 Photo Credits for Cover: Picture-Alliance Syria Cross Road Select titles in the Syria Cross Road Series: Steel & Silk: Men and Women Who Shaped Syria 1900 - 2000 - by Sami Moubayed A Pen of Damascus Steel: The Political Cartoons of an Arab Master - by Ali Farzat The Road from Damascus: A Journey Through Syria - by Scott C. Davis Syria - Ballots or Bullets? Democracy, Islamism, and Secularism in the Levant - by Carsten Wieland www.cunepress.com | www.cunepress.net Contents Foreword 10 1 Hariqa: The Fire Spreads 16 2 Regime Reflexes & Reactions 28 3 A Decade of Lost Chances 45 4 Bashar & Breaches in the Leadership 61 5 The Pillars of the Ancient Regime 79 Pro-Palestinian Rhetoric 80 Pan-Arab Rhetoric 84 Secularism 85 Religious Minorities 85 Domestic Security 92 Social Balance 93 Hopes for Modernization (Bread & Circuses) 95 Bashar 99 Chaos in Iraq 102 6 The Negative Balance 103 Political Disillusionment 103 Corruption 118 The Economic Time Bomb 118 Human Rights Violations 134 7 Opposition, Islam & the Regime 143 The Secularists 144 The Kidnapping of Civil Society 154 Resignation 156 The Islamists 160 The New Islamic Alternative 167 Playing with the Islamic Fire 176 The Cage Breaks Open 181 Fragmentation & Congregation during the Arab Spring 185 8 Syria’s Policy Paradox 194 Lebanon 195 Israel 198 Turkey 201 Iran 203 Iraq 204 Saudi Arabia 206 The United States 207 International Factors & 3 Waves of Suppression 208 Phases of Bashar’s Rule 209 9 Che not Usama: Syrian Society & Western Ideals 211 10 Excursus: Secularism in Syria 217 11 The Bankruptcy of Baathism 223 12 Syria: A Rogue State? 243 The Palestinian Issue 244 The Golan and Lebanon 250 The Nuclear File 262 13 After Arab Spring: Shifting Discourses & Alliances 265 14 Syrian Scenarios 287 One: Regime Survival with Bashar al-Asad 289 Two: Regime Survival without Asad 291 Three: National Reconciliation & Gradual Transition with Asad 291 Four: Chaos and Civil War 292 Five: Regime Change & Democratization 294 Resources 301 Endnotes 301 Appendix 318 Bibliography 319 Index 328 Author Bio 336 .