Wesleyan University The Honors College How the Political Red Lines Disappeared: A Modern History of American Democratic Norm Decline by Peter Wallace Dunphy Class of 2018 A thesis submitted to the faculty of Wesleyan University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Arts with Departmental Honors in Government and American Studies Middletown, Connecticut April, 2018 1 “Well, when the president does it, that means that it is not illegal.” - Richard Nixon 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Hillary Clinton once said it takes a village to raise a child. I think it took closer to a metropolis to write this thesis. I would be remiss if I did not first thank Professor Logan Dancey for serving as my thesis advisor. The most rewarding part of writing a thesis was cultivating an intellectual relationship with Professor Dancey. Thank you for providing me with academic, professional, and emotional encouragement throughout this year-long process. If anyone high up in the Government Department is reading this, I hope this serves as a strong recommendation to give Professor Dancey tenure. Throughout the year, I also had the immense pleasure of working with the Congressional Politics and Elections Lab to workshop theses and independent research. This group of fantastic scholars, Emma Solomon, Carly King, Tess Counts, and Sam Prescott, both provided incredible feedback while also serving as a fantastic way to spend every Tuesday night. Appreciation beyond words must be given to Frank Tucci, who has continued to support me throughout this entire endeavor, no matter how annoying it must have been to hear me talk about democratic norms for an entire year. My housemates Aaron Stagoff-Belfort, Austin Dhillon, Eduardo Centeno, and Luke Davoren have made me realize how terrible life would be if I were not living with my best friends. If any of you end up reading this, I’ll admit it here: I was the one who ate the English Muffins. Aaron Sege, Jasmine Masters, Trixie Mattel, Shangela Wadley, Katya Zamolodchikova, and Molly Witten have been fantastic sources of intellectual and personal backing throughout. It’s hard to smile and laugh at times while writing a thesis, but everyone described in this paragraph has helped me do that. Many people initiated important lines of questioning and provided valuable insights that helped advance the core intellectual arguments of this thesis. The ideas that are constructed in this work would not have been possible without classes I have taken with Asha Rangappa, Sonali Chakravarti, Erika Franklin Fowler, Justin Peck, and Laura Grappo. Those at the Brennan Center for Justice provided key commentary at the early stages of development. Thank you to Fred Dews and Bill Galston at Brookings for allowing me to geek out with you and for providing me with a clutch mug for midnight Espwesso breaks. Finally, I must thank my parents with the deepest gratitude for providing me with help and guidance throughout all my ventures, especially this one. You guys rock. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE – INTRODUCTION .............................................................. 6 How the Political Red Lines Disappeared ............................................................ 10 Importance and Relevancy of Thesis ................................................................... 12 Overview of How the Political Red Lines Disappeared ........................................ 14 CHAPTER TWO – NORM ACCOUNTABILITY THEORY ............................ 18 Formal Institutions and Informal Norms ............................................................... 22 The Consequences of the Informality of Norms .................................................. 29 A New Model ....................................................................................................... 31 Norm Adjustment ................................................................................................ 37 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 40 CHAPTER THREE – LOOSENING THE REINS OF OBLIGATION ............. 42 The Anti-Democratic Voter .................................................................................. 43 The Shaky Democrat in Polarized Times ............................................................. 45 The Door’s Unlocked ........................................................................................... 51 Empowered Insurgents ....................................................................................... 55 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 61 CHAPTER FOUR – APPROPRIATING DEMOCRACY................................ 64 Gridlock ............................................................................................................... 70 Norms and Gridlock ............................................................................................ 72 “We Can’t Wait” and Justifications of Governing Norm Violations ...................... 75 Slim Majorities and More Recalculation of Incentives.......................................... 80 Effects of Governing Norm Erosion on Policy and Governance ........................... 82 Inability to Formalize ........................................................................................... 85 Dawn of a New Political Culture .......................................................................... 86 CHAPTER FIVE – ELITE COMPLICITY AND ELECTORAL VICTORY: THE ASCENSION OF DONALD TRUMP ............................................................. 91 The Trump Campaign Begins .............................................................................. 93 Justifications for Breaking Norms of Decency and Decorum .............................. 96 Trump Breaks Through the Republican Field ...................................................... 99 The “Pivot” and Governing ................................................................................ 106 Republican Complicity and James Comey ........................................................ 109 Retiring Republicans and Democrats Take an Active Response ....................... 117 4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 120 CHAPTER SIX - CONCLUSION ................................................................ 123 The French Counterfactual ................................................................................ 127 The Trumpian Renaissance? ............................................................................. 132 A More Democratic Union ................................................................................. 134 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................... 140 APPENDIX .................................................................................................. 153 Methodology Framework for James Comey Media Analysis ............................. 153 5 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 1.1 - Public Support for Confirmation of the Past Six Supreme Court Nominees ...................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3.1 - Americans' Average Trust in Institutions and Political Parties Over Time...................................................................................................... 59 Figure 4.1 - Senate Action on Cloture Motions by Congresses ................... 66 Figure 5.1 - Vote Share by the Eventual Winning Candidate ..................... 102 Figure 5.2 - Frequency of Argument Type by News Outlet ........................ 116 6 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION Antonin Scalia was a polarizing figure in life, to put it mildly. Famous for penning long-winded dissents flowered with colorful language, Scalia’s decisions were a reliably great read. In the 2003 case Lawrence v. Texas, for instance, the Supreme Court ruled a Texas anti-sodomy law unconstitutional. In his dissent, Scalia wrote that the Court’s decision striking down the sodomy law was the “product of a law-profession culture, that has largely signed on to the so-called homosexual agenda.”1 As it would happen, Antonin Scalia proved just as polarizing in death. On the morning of February 15, 2016, news broke that Justice Scalia died in his sleep while on a hunting trip in west Texas. Scalia’s death added another gust into the vortex of partisan antagonism accumulating in the build-up to the 2016 presidential election. With nine months left until the election and close to a year left formally in office, President Obama resolved to nominate a justice to the high bench. In a statement shortly after the news broke, Obama pledged “I plan to fulfill my constitutional responsibilities to nominate a successor in due time. There will be plenty of time for me to do so and for the Senate to fulfill its responsibility to give that person a fair hearing and a timely vote.”2 This nominee, announced on March 16, 2016, was D.C. Circuit Appeals Judge Merrick Garland.3 1 Lawrence v. Texas, 539 U.S. 558 (2003). 2 Daniel Politi, “Obama: I Plan to Fulfill My Constitutional Responsibilities to Nominate Scalia’s Successor,” Slate, February 13, 2016. 3 Juliet Eilperin and Mike DeBonis, “President Obama nominates Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court,” The Washington Post, March 16, 2016. 7 Appointing a Supreme Court justice, however, meant that the president would have to lead Garland