Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995, E-ISSN 2285-3952 CLIMATE CHANGES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON OLTENIA PLAIN – CARACAL MICROREGION Diana VÂNĂTORU (RĂDULESCU), Ion DONA University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Bucharest, 59 Marasti, District 1, 011464, Bucharest, Romania, E-mail: [email protected], E-mail: [email protected] Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract In our country, the territory with increased risk from droughts, with a tendency to aridity and desertification even includes large areas of southern Oltenia region; we may consider this to be the most exposed to desertification in Romania. In this context, we analyzed the evolution of agriculture in micro area Caracal (in the towns belonging to that micro-area) in the past decade, drawing out the dependence of production on climatic phenomenon. For conditions in Caracal micro area, the Seleaninov indices were calculated and these were correlated with the economic and financial information for the micro region. Our results have revealed that the maize crop is exposed to losses, and the least exposed is the sunflower. Wheat performed relatively better than maize, as demonstrated by the reduction in the period of maize acreage and a slight increase in areas planted with winter wheat. The main conclusion drawn from research undertaken in Caracal micro region is that agriculture is increasingly volatile to climate change variations from one production year to another, with direct implications on the financial results of farmers. Key words: climate changes, production, Seleaninov indexes INTRODUCTION spread over an area of approx. 7 million ha of agricultural land (48%) and those subject to In Romania, the effects of climate change excess moisture in wet years (about 4 million have had and will have a significant impact on ha). Drought becomes the limiting factor the development of natural conditions, affecting crops on the largest areas, extent and agriculture and biodiversity are the most intensity of this type of risk demising annual vulnerable areas to climate change, given the fluid reduction of agricultural production of at dependence on climatic conditions and the least 30-50% [8]. negative ecological, economic and social Territories with increased risk from droughts, changes affecting the sustainable development with a tendency to aridity and desertification of a region. even include large areas of southern Oltenia The weather can have both a direct influence, considering that this region is most exposed to reflected in agriculture losses, and year these phenomena in Romania. Of thermal indirect impact on the economic growth risks affecting agricultural crops in Oltenia noticed in case of high dependency on the Plain, those with serious effects on production farming sector [5]. are the maximum temperatures above the Our country has a growing vulnerability in critical threshold of 32°C. The amount of days intensity and frequency of climate extremes of heat, the deficit widened from the air and (drought, floods, heat, frost, pests and ground water, causes major production losses diseases, etc.), producing significant losses in and calamity for spring crops, which in July all sectors, especially in agriculture. Thus, it is and August, when the frequency is high risk considered of the approximately 14.7 million of these phenomena lies in the critical ha of agricultural land (of which 9.4 million vegetation phase of flowering. In Oltenia hectares of arable land) soils affected by long Plain, heat has a high frequency (over 30% of periods of drought and consecutive years are the year), the highest in the whole country 313 Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995, E-ISSN 2285-3952 with Teleorman Plain and Danube Valley accumulation of plant evolution (duration and towards Giurgiu. completion of phonological phases) in Climate change effects on agricultural crops conjunction with agricultural practice, i.e. in the southern part of Romania depend on cultivation technology applied differently local conditions of each site and the severity depending on the specific agropedoclimatic of changes in climate [4]. So that the climate conditions. characteristics can be used effectively to During the growing season, field crops determine the productive capacity of the land, requirement have differentiated climatic it must be "true" for the location to which it conditions, with highs in the critical phases of relates. To meet this goal it is necessary to crop-specific consumption. determine not only the climate as a whole, but Agrometeorological parameters evolving also the microclimate (Caracal) each portion optimum necessary to carry out properly the of territory in the region (Oltenia) [10]. physiological processes of plant growth and In this context, we believe that the study area development are considered risk/stress factors (micro area of Caracal), increased tendency with adverse effects on crop growth status and scorching heat and aridity of the climate are ultimately on agricultural productions. phenomena that need to be considered and Agropedoclimatic risk types defined using efforts and financial investments should be agro meteorological and agro climatic indices intensified in order to create a favorable show that the heat or fluid risk / stress can be fitoclimat, a competitive agriculture and a classified according to the basic criteria used sustainable development [9]. in the analysis and evaluation of effects on For this, present research consider annual each agricultural species [6] [7]. The decline turnover of climatic factors that determine of the species cultivated productive potential crop yields significant variations from year to is directly proportional to the intensity, year and aims to knowing the impact of frequency, sequence and duration of action of climatic variability on yield. disturbances – agro meteorological factors. Winter wheat has a growing season that fall MATERIALS AND METHODS generally between 230 and 250 days, it depends on the variety grown, but especially In the agro meteorological research, impact the growing climatic conditions. Status of studies in agriculture are based on weather vegetation varies throughout the agricultural data / climate and agro meteorological south, and from one year to another, due to stations with agro meteorological software the different agropedoclimatic conditions. In and climatology archive ( archive NIMH ), as May-June winter wheat goes through the well as specialized measurements, phenology, period of maximum sensitivity - "critical and biometric production, made on standard period" to environmental conditions - platforms both in the agro-meteorological temperature and precipitation, positive or weather stations and software, as well as negative deviations from the optimal values production fields located near the weather are more harmful to plants as they vary in one station. direction or the other (positive or negative) to Fluctuation analysis of agro climatic resources the optimum (Table 1). through dynamic evolution of agro meteorological/agro climatic factors Table 1. Requirements for air temperature (degrees constitutes the basic criterion to quantify Celsius) for wheat in the critical period agricultural drought impact on the vegetation, Month Air temperature crop productivity [3]. This method of Lethal Minimum Optimal Maximum characterization and evaluation of the May > 35 8-10 16-20 30-35 influence of climate variability on the June > 35 8-10 16-22 30-35 species/varieties grown include monitoring of Source: Berbecel and colab. meteorological / climatic factors through the 314 Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, 2013 PRINT ISSN 2284-7995, E-ISSN 2285-3952 In this critical period, the drought associated are correlated with each other directly, in with low atmospheric humidity and high which case it is not necessary to use only maximum temperatures (heat days) causes some of them. severe reduction in yields of wheat [1]. Table 4. Thermal limits for wheat, maize and sunflower Humidity is the second major important factor Crop Thermal limits (degrees) to winter wheat. Organic range favorable for Minimum annual average Absolute Optimal wheat, from the point of view of precipitation For fructification For min. for annual recorded, is between 370 and 875 mm. Latest and harvesting green survival average experimental results from our country the beans mass considers as optimal for the entire growing Winter -6 6 -10 -20 11 season of wheat, the amount of about 600 mm wheat by rainfall [10] (Table 2). variety Table 2.The optimum of precipitation (l /sq m) in Maize -7 6 0 12 winter wheat / reference thresholds Sunflower 8 6 -2 10 IX X XI- IV V VI VII VIII IX- Source: Teaci III VIII 40,0 60,0 200,0 50,0 80,0 80,0 50,0 40,0 600 Of these we selected Seleaninov index that Source: Teaci measures variations of phenomena in different periods of the year, taking into account the Maize Regarding maize crop requests to phenomena normally seasonal fluctuations temperature, it is assumed that maize is a (temperature and precipitation): plant with high requirements to temperature. Temperature requirements of maize in the precipitation "critical period" that corresponds to the SHR 0.1x average temperature months