Contents Chapter 3 Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................ 3 3.1 Exposure and Analysis of State Development Trends ................................................................. 5 3.1.1. Growth ..................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.2. Population ................................................................................................................................ 5 3.1.3 Social Vulnerability................................................................................................................ 24 3.1.4. Land Use and Development Trends .................................................................................... 27 3.1.5. Exposure of Built Environment/Cultural Resources ......................................................... 35 3.2. Hazard Identification ................................................................................................................... 48 3.2a. Potential Climate Change Impacts on the 22 Identified Hazards in Kansas ........................ 63 3.3. Hazard Profiles and State Risk Assessment .............................................................................. 65 3.3.1. Agricultural Infestation ........................................................................................................ 68 3.3.2. Civil Disorder ........................................................................................................................ 87 3.3.3. Dam and Levee Failure ......................................................................................................... 93 3.3.4. Drought ................................................................................................................................ 152 3.3.5. Earthquake .......................................................................................................................... 176 3.3.6. Expansive Soils .................................................................................................................... 203 3.3.7. Extreme Temperatures ....................................................................................................... 207 3.3.8. Flood ..................................................................................................................................... 226 3.3.9. Hailstorm ............................................................................................................................. 296 3.3.10. Hazardous Materials ......................................................................................................... 318 3.3.11. Land Subsidence ............................................................................................................... 342 3.3.12. Landslide ............................................................................................................................. 358 3.3.13. Lightning ............................................................................................................................ 364 3.3.14. Major Disease Outbreak .................................................................................................. 380 3.3.15. Radiological ....................................................................................................................... 397 3.3.16. Soil Erosion and Dust ....................................................................................................... 403 3.3.17. Terrorism/Agri-Terrorism ................................................................................................ 409 3.3.18. Tornado ............................................................................................................................... 417 3.3.19. Utility/Infrastructure Failure ........................................................................................... 453 3.3.20. Wildfire .............................................................................................................................. 470 3.3.21. Windstorm ........................................................................................................................... 486 Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan Final 3-1 2018 3.3.22. Winter Storm ..................................................................................................................... 509 3.4. Integration of Local Plans: Vulnerability and Loss Estimates ............................................. 534 3.4.1. Overview and Analysis of Local Plan Vulnerability Assessments .................................. 534 3.4.2. Overview and Analysis of Local Plan Potential Loss Estimates ..................................... 548 3.5. State Owned and Operated Facilities: Vulnerability and Loss Estimates ............................. 556 3.5.1. Agricultural Infestation ....................................................................................................... 564 3.5.2. Civil Disorder ....................................................................................................................... 564 3.5.3. Dam and Levee Failure ......................................................................................................... 566 3.5.4. Drought ................................................................................................................................. 568 3.5.5. Earthquake ........................................................................................................................... 568 3.5.6. Expansive Soils .................................................................................................................... 572 3.5.7. Extreme Temperatures ....................................................................................................... 572 3.5.8. Flood ...................................................................................................................................... 572 3.5.9. Hailstorm .............................................................................................................................. 574 3.5.10. Hazardous Materials .......................................................................................................... 575 3.5.11. Land Subsidence ................................................................................................................ 578 3.5.12. Landslide ............................................................................................................................. 580 3.5.13. Lightning ............................................................................................................................ 582 3.5.14. Major Disease Outbreak ................................................................................................... 583 3.5.15. Radiological ........................................................................................................................ 583 3.5.16. Soil Erosion and Dust ........................................................................................................ 585 3.5.17. Terrorism/Agri-terrorism ................................................................................................. 585 3.5.18. Tornado ............................................................................................................................... 585 3.5.19. Utility/Infrastructure Failure ............................................................................................ 586 3.5.20 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................ 586 3.5.21. Windstorm .......................................................................................................................... 587 3.5.22. Winter Storm ...................................................................................................................... 588 3.6. References .................................................................................................................................... 590 Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan Final 3-2 2018 Chapter 3 Risk Assessment The foundation of the Kansas Hazard Mitigation Plan is the statewide risk assessment. In order to define effective mitigation actions to make Kansas more resilient to the impacts of future disasters, it is necessary to understand the hazards that threaten the state and how they disrupt Kansas communities. It is also necessary to understand how the communities are vulnerable to the impacts of the identified hazards and the scope or extent of that vulnerability. This chapter details the risk assessment process conducted by the Kansas Hazard Mitigation Team (KHMT). Its purpose is to provide, on a statewide basis, an understanding of the risks posed by the hazards that threaten Kansas. This allows the KHMT to focus its planning efforts on the hazards that pose the most risk to the people of Kansas, their property, and their communities. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) defines risk assessment terminology as follows: Hazard – a hazard is an act or phenomenon that has the potential to produce harm or other undesirable consequences to a person or thing. Vulnerability – Vulnerability is susceptibility to physical injury, harm, damage or economic loss. It depends on an asset’s construction, contents and economic value of its functions.