Newport Adult Services: Market Position Statement SOCIAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT NEWPORT ADULT SERVICES MARKET POSITION STATEMENT 2014 – 2019 1 Newport Adult Services: Market Position Statement 1. INTRODUCTION This document is aimed at existing and potential providers of adult social care. It represents rt of a dialogue between the Council, people who use services, carers, providers and others, about the vision for the future of local social care markets. We are committed to stimulating a diverse, active market where innovation and energy is encouraged and rewarded and where poor practice is actively discouraged. This is an important role for the Council, and a key part of shaping what kind of place Newport is, namely a place where people with care and support needs, their families and carers, are included and involved in community, economic and social life. This Market Position Statement (MPS) is designed to be a document containing intelligence, information and analysis of benefit to existing and potential providers of adult social care and support in Newport. It aims to describe current and potential future demand and supply; the funding that we will have available as commissioners; potential demand from people funding their own services; and begins to describe how we would like to work with the social care market going forward. Providers of adult social care can learn about the council’s intentions as a purchaser of services, and our vision for how services might respond to the personalisation / citizen direction of adult social care and support. Voluntary and community organisations can learn about future opportunities and what would enable you to build on your knowledge of local needs in order to develop new activities and services. People interested in local business development and social enterprise can read about new opportunities in the market and tell us what would help them to come into social care markets and offer innovative services. Social care providers and organisations not currently active in Newport could find opportunities to use your strengths and skills to benefit local people and develop your business Importantly, this Market Position Statement seeks to balance three priorities: • Stimulate the market to provide a wide choice of innovative flexible services, meeting the Personalisation / Citizen Directed agenda and increasing service user satisfaction. • Engaging with local, regional and national providers to promote the local economy. • Delivering efficiencies whilst improving quality. KEY MESSAGES Demand for services is increasing People need more from the services they receive People are living longer There are fewer resources to provide meet service user needs 2 Newport Adult Services: Market Position Statement 2. DEMAND FOR SERVICES Using information from Daffodil Needs Projection System, we have summarised some of the key messages relating to the current and likely future of community support needs of adults in Newport. The population projections for Newport over the next five years are in line with the rest of Wales; it is anticipated that the number of people aged over 65 will increase over the next 5 year, with more people expected to live longer. In 2013 Newport’s total population aged 18+ was 114,160 (Census 2011). This figure is expected to rise to 119,760 by 2020 (5%). a) Learning Disability The number of people estimated to have a learning disability (aged 18+) in 2012 was 2568. This figure is predicted to slightly rise over the next 5 years by around 3% For the age group 18-24, it is predicted that people with a learning disability will reduce from 382 in 2012 to 338 in 2020 (11%) It is predicted that there will be an increase in the numbers of people with learning difficulties aged 25-44 and those over 55. Newport Adults aged 18+ with a learning disability, predicted to display challenging behaviour remains the same. It is estimated that in 2014, there are 1074 adults aged 18+ with a learning disability and who have an autistic spectrum disorder. This figure is predicted to increase by just under 3% over the next 5 years. b) Disabled People The number of people aged 35+ who have received treatment for a stroke in 2013 was 2,635. This figure is expected to increase by 9% over the next 5 years. There are an estimated 58 people aged 18-64 with a severe visual impairment. This figure is expected to increase by 3% over the next 5 years. 753 people are estimated to have a moderate or severe visual impairment in the 65-74 age group which is estimated to increase by 4% over the next 5 years.1,443 people aged 75 and above are estimated to have a moderate or severe visual impairment. This figure is estimated to rise by 12% over the next 5 years. The number of people, aged 18+, predicted to have moderate to severe hearing impairment in 2013 was 13,854. This figure is expected to increase by 9% over the next 5 years. The number of people, aged 18+, predicted to have a profound hearing impairment in 2013 was 304. This figure is expected to increase by 11% over the next 5 years. The number of people aged 65 and over unable to manage at least one mobility activity on their own in 2013 was 4,542. This figure is expected to increase by11% over the next 5 years. Unable to manage at least one activity in this context includes ‘going out of doors and walking down the road, getting up and down stairs, getting around the house on a level area, getting to the toilet, getting in and out of bed.’ The number of people aged 65-69 unable to manage at least one activity is expected to fall by 10% over the next 5 years. The expected increase for people aged 70+ is just under 15% over the next 5 years. c) Adult Mental Health The number of people (aged 16+) estimated to have any mental health problem in 2013 was 19,125. This figure is expected to increase by 4% over the next 5 years. 3 Newport Adult Services: Market Position Statement It is estimated that there are 35 people with early onset dementia aged 30-64. This figure is expected to increase by over 11% over the next 5 years. It is estimated that that 12,994 people aged 16-59 currently misuse drugs. This figure is expected to increase by 5% over the next 5 years. It is estimated that 31,225 people aged 16+ currently binge drink. This figure is expected to increase by just over 3% over the next 5 years. d) Carers There are 16,212 people providing unpaid care in Newport, representing 14% of Newport’s total population aged 18+ (Census 2011). As at 2013, 9,248 carers in Newport provide 1-19 hours of unpaid care per week and 2,500 carers in Newport provide 20–49 hours of unpaid care per week. As at 2013, 4,464 carers in Newport provide 50+ hours of unpaid care per week. Across all age groups. The number of carers aged 65 and over is predicted to rise by 7% over the next 5 years. e) Older People and Older Mental Health (65+) There are an estimated 1,707 people aged 65+ with dementia. This figure is predicted to rise by 13% over the next 5 years. The number of people aged 65 and over who will receive treatment for a stroke is predicted to rise by 10% over the next 5 years. The number of people aged 65 and over receiving community based services is predicted to rise by 12% over the next 5 years. (Community Based Services refers to homecare, day services, respite, meals on wheels, direct payments, equipment and adaptations and supported accommodation). The number of people aged 65 and over receiving residential based services is predicted to rise by 14% over the next 5 years. KEY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS The number of people with a Learning Disability in Newport is expected to increase by 3% The number of older people with a severe visual impairment is predicted to increase The number of people predicted to have a profound hearing impairment is predicted to increase The number of people expected to be unable to manage at least one mobility activity is expected to increase, particularly for people aged 70+. The number of people who misuse drugs and binge drink is expected to increase The number of people aged 16+ estimated to have any mental health problem is expected to increase The number of carers aged 65 and over is predicted to rise The number of older people receiving a community based or residential service is expected to significantly increase. The demand for services to older people will increase as the shape of the local and national population changes as a result of advances in medical science meaning more people are living longer. There is predicted to be an increase in chronic conditions based not only on an increasing older population but also on life style choices This rise in demand will not be matched by Government funding meaning a new approach is needed to how social care and support is delivered. 4 Newport Adult Services: Market Position Statement 3. CURRENT AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS (POLICY CONTEXT) The key strategic messages from local and national strategies that underpin this Market Position Statement are: Following consultation with the public, staff, stakeholders and Scrutiny Committee’s improvement objectives in Newport one of the key objectives for Newport is to be a caring city. This includes: • Improving independent living for older people - The council will work with the health service and other partners to develop and deliver preventative models of care and support within the community.