rediscovering value SRI LANKA | EQUITY FOCUS September 2012 C T SMITH STOCKBROKERS Synopsis : Economic Snapshot 2 . The Sri Lankan economy grew 8.3% in 2011 followed by a strong 8.0% growth in 2010 . The general price level has remained in single digits since late 2009 despite accounting for a high level of inflation during mid 2008 . Which was supported by the improvements in domestic supply by enhanced food production in the conflict affected areas and owing to the cautious monetary and fiscal policy stances adopted during 2009 – 1H2011 . However, the external sector suffered from 3Q2011 onwards amidst unstable economic conditions emanating from the sluggish global economic recovery . This was further intensified by the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone and the significant upsurge in international oil prices and pressures on flows to the capital account . During the latter part of 2011, the Central Bank (CBSL) undertook sterilized intervention in the forex market . The CBSL also maintained a fixed exchange rate policy during 2H2011 whilst maintaining stable interest rates . Consequently the ministry of finance introduced a 3% overnight devaluation to the LKR in November 2011 during its FY2012 budget reading . This policy action was followed by the CBSL’s tight monetary policy actions during February and April 2012 which further introduced . Quantitative restrictions on commercial bank disbursements . And more currency flexibility . With the authorities allowing interest rates and exchange rates to be determined by the market forces we believe, . The interest rates have reached near peak levels . The LKR is also expected to remain stable in the near term Synopsis : Stock Market Snapshot 3 . Despite accounting for ~25% of the Sri Lankan economy, the stock market is not necessarily a clear representation of the economy since . Certain sectors (Financial Services & Real Estate and Tourism) have a disproportionately high weightage in the market vs. the economy . Since 2000, foreign portfolio investment has contributed approximately 25% of total market turnover . Foreign investors have been net buyers since 1Q2012 . The earnings of the Diversified Holdings and Beverage, Food & Tobacco sectors are broadly represented in the market . The Manufacturing and Banks, Finance & Insurance sectors are trading at a discount to the market subsequent to sharp earnings growth over the past 12 months . Highly geared companies with capex plans in the pipeline will be affected by the rising interest rate environment . Corporates with forex borrowings are exposed to the forex risk Table of Contents 4 Economic Overview 5 Interest Rates 6 Balance of Payments 8 Exchange Rates 10 Medium Term Economic Growth Indicators 11 Fiscal Policy 12 Inflation 14 Stock Market Overview 16 Key Events 17 Composition of the Economy vs. the Market 18 Foreign Investor Participation 19 Sectoral Earnings Analysis 20 Analysis of the Top 30 Investible Companies vs. the Market 22 Treasury Bills vs. ASPI 24 Market Gearing Analysis 25 Regional Market Comparison 26 Summary Performance of the Market in the Past 12 Months 27 Summary Performance of the Market in the Past 8 Years 28 Top 20 Stocks – by Turnover 29 Stock Picks 30 Acronyms 43 5 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Interest Rates: Key Event Timeline 6 End of 26 year The CBSL adopts a soft monetary In order to continue the same growth The Currency depreciates long internal policy to stimulate investment and momentum, the CBSL adopts a fixed Finance over 15% during the conflict economic growth, however due to exchange rate policy amidst duty Ministry first 8 months to the impact of the global financial reductions on vehicle imports and increases ~Rs.131.00 levels. crisis and slower credit growth, the electronic goods. To facilitate growth, the duties on Trade deficit reduces economy records a mild real growth CBSL sterilized its intervention in the forex vehicle to US$663mn in June of only 3.5% in FY2009 market by increasing CBSL’s net domestic imports in 2012, the lowest assets (i.e. money printing) during 2H2011. April 2012 since February 2011. The interest rates remained stable 20% temporarily. The BOT deficit expands to an all time high of US$10bn for FY2011. Economy grows 8.3% in FY2011 15% 12 Month 10% Treasury Bill Yield 5% 4-Jul-08 4-Jan-09 4-Jul-09 4-Jan-10 4-Jul-10 4-Jan-11 4-Jul-11 4-Jan-12 4-Jul-12 Government infrastructure During 2H2010, demand for The Minister of The CBSL tightens monetary policy The CBSL further projects were funded by credit grows above 15%, Finance, for the first time after five years to tightens the government LCBs till end resulting in an overall devalues the address the higher BOT deficit. A monetary policy in 1H2010, CBSL eases its economic growth of 8.0% in currency by 3% credit cap is placed on LCB lending April 2012, whilst policy rates in July and FY2010 (the highest real in his November to curb import financing. CBSL increasing its policy August 2010 to induce economic growth rate since 2011 budget revises its GDP growth down to rate corridor by private sector investment 1979) reading 7.2% from 8% 50bps to 2%. Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, CTS Research REDISCOVERING VALUE | Sri Lanka Equity Focus | September 2012 Interest Rates… 7 . The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has tightened its monetary policy stance during 1H2012 Private Sector Demand for Credit (Rs Bn) amidst rising currency pressure, on account of a sharp rise in demand for import credit; 2,600 Actual Forecast however further tightening is not expected due to reducing import demand pressure 2,400 . Following CBSL’s tight monetary policy, aggregate demand for credit eased off during 2,200 2Q2012, resulting in a trade deficit of US$663mn in June 2012, the lowest monthly deficit 2,000 since February 2011 1,800 1,600 . Benchmark T-bill yields have trended up sharply due to reduced market liquidity since 2H2011; we expect T-bill yields to rise a further 20+ bps in the short term 1,400 1,200 . However, we expect yields to trend down in 2013E amidst stability returning to the currency 1,000 (through improved BOP), and liquidity improving in the money market on account of lower Nov-08 Jul-09 Mar-10 Nov-10 Jul-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 demand for credit during 2H2012E Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sep Nov Jul Aug Jan Apr Feb Apr Policy Rates / Ratios Before '08 ‘08 '09 '09 '09 '09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 '11 '11 '12 '12 Repurchase Rate (%) 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.25 10.25 9.00 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.25 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.75 Reverse Repurchase Rate (%) 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.75 11.75 11.75 11.50 11.00 10.50 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.50 9.00 9.75 Penal Rate (%) 19.00 19.00 19.00 17.00 16.50 14.75 13.00 - - - - - - - - - - Statutory Reserve Ratio (%) 10.00 9.25 7.75 7.75 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka REDISCOVERING VALUE | Sri Lanka Equity Focus | September 2012 Balance of Payments 8 Exports : US$9.8bn in 2012E (-6% YoY, 17% of GDP) BOP US$5.0bn in 1H2012 (-2% YoY) Balance of Trade Trade . Garments exports (~ 42% of total exports, -1% YoY) highly dependent on demand from key Deficit : buyers, the EU and the US (acc. for ~51% and ~39% of segmental earnings), and cotton prices due –US$10.1bn in Account to pass-through costs; expectation of lower demand and cotton prices 2012E (+4% YoY, . Tea exports subdued (-14% YoY, ~13% of total exports) given lower productivity and decline in 17% of GDP); demand from Middle East (acc. for 46% of tea export revenue) -US$4.7bn in 1H2012 (+12% YoY) . Despite efforts by GOSL for higher growth in non-garment value added segment - rubber, petroleum products exports etc. (-7% YoY, ~36% of total exports), earnings under pressure due to Despite successes in sluggish global economy curtailing high import growth (due to excise duty hikes, Imports : US$20.0bn in 2012E (-1% YoY, 34% of GDP) currency weakness US$9.7bn in 1H2012 (+4% YoY) and higher interest . Import expenditure growth reduced via duty hikes (mainly for consumer goods, ~17% of rates) and imports),currency depreciation, and credit curtailment measures anticipated higher foreign inflows into . Investment goods (~26% of imports) growth to be driven by state-funded infrastructure projects, the capital and though fiscal deficit concerns may temporarily curtail public expenditure services accounts, . Potential upside to import expenditure to be largely due to a higher oil import bill (+11% YoY, the magnitude of ~26% of total imports, ~50% of BOT deficit), given its high vulnerability to volatility in crude oil the BOT deficit, prices as entire petroleum requirement of Sri Lanka is imported ~17% of GDP, . Anticipated growth in the oil import bill, amidst higher volumes to support increased usage of remains a key thermal power vs. hydro power in the near term due to prevailing drought conditions (current concern usage of thermal est. at 88% vs. 50% in 2011), and supply disruptions to coal power Capital & . ~40% of petroleum imports used for thermal power generation Services Account See Next Page REDISCOVERING VALUE | Sri Lanka Equity Focus | September 2012 Balance of Payments… 9 BOP See Previous Page Gross Worker Remittances : US$5.9bn in 2012E (+16% YoY, 10% of GDP) US$2.9bn in 1H2012 (+17% YoY) Trade .