Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47685-0 — What Science Is and How It Really Works James C. Zimring Index More Information Index Abrahamic Religions, 74, 364–5 Australopithecus africanus, 335–6 absence, logical impossibility of authority, 135–6 demonstrating, 170–1 non-scientific, 324, 326 absolute truths, 14–15 questioning, 137 Adams, John Quincy, 93 religion and, 134–5 Adler, Alfred, 73, 75–6 scientific, 328–34 affirming the consequent, 47–52, 81, 101 societal, 316–27 retroduction and, 367 autism Against Method (Feyerabend), 291, 331–2, signs of, 217 357–8 unclear causes of, 212–13 AIDS epidemic, 311–13 vaccination as a potential cause of, 1, Alteration of Environmental Protection 21–2, 212–14,217,230–4 Agency data (EPA), 324–5 automatic writing, 105 alternative facts, 361, 377–8 auxiliary statements, 57 alternative medicine, 126–7 availability heuristic, 33, 247 ambiguity, 249–61 American jurisprudence, 141–3 background assumptions, 90–1, 98 American presidential election (2016), 33 background beliefs, 82, 85 Anaximander of Miletus, 318–19, 329 common sense and, 86–8 anecdotal evidence, 246–7 influence of, 289–90 anthropology of science, 3, 12, 357 observation and, 175–8 anti-intellectualism movement, 361–2 web of belief and, 88 apophenia, 164 background circumstances, 28 Aristarchus of Samos, 315 background information, 53, 242 Aristotle, 36, 38, 44, 131–2 background thinking, 282 artificial “ball and cage” valve, 89 Bacon, Francis, 19, 316 artificial intelligence, 284 Balthazar (Durrell), 155 Asimov, Isaac, 66 base rate blindness, 195 association, 217–18, 245 base rate fallacy, 33, 244–5 atomic association, 283 base rate neglect, 192–5, 262 causal, 148, 210–11 Bassi, Agostino, 109 confounders and, 227–8 Bayesian thinking, 303–7 errors of, 184 belief constructs, 98, 110–15, 135–6 evidence and, 260–1 data and, 154 false, 250 natural world and, 115, 132 illusion of, 201, 203–4 reinforcing, 210–11 observation of, 21–2, 208–12 The Believing Brain (Shermer), 209 Association of Sananda and Samat Kumara, benzene, discovery of structure of, 283 107 Bernstein, D. M, 172 assumptions, 83 bias astrology, 368–72 cognitive, 117–29 astrophysics, 372–3 compensating for, 246–9, 354–5 AT&T bell labs, 336 confirmation bias, 272–3, 290–1 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47685-0 — What Science Is and How It Really Works James C. Zimring Index More Information control for, 229–34 cluster analysis in demarcation of science, 8–9 decreased repetition bias, 258 clustering illusion, 199–201 double-blinded studies and, 227 cognitive errors, 127–9 inadvertent, 266 coherence, 97–9. See also observation bias, 261–8, 275, 290–1, 372 Hypothetico-Deductivism psychological, 258 deductive, 128–9 publication bias, 80–1, 255–8 logical, 96 reporting bias, 255–8 maintaining and re-establishing, 172, societal, 307–8 276–8 in study design, 229 web of belief and, 99–102 Bible Code, 244 coincidences, 241–3 Big Bang theory, 336 cold fusion, 333 big data, 70 cold readings, 265–6 biology, 140, 338, 345 common sense Blair, Tony, 211–12 background beliefs and, 86–8 Blondlot, Prosper-René, 268–73, 300–1, 303–4 deductively invalid arguments and, 124 blood transfusion, 176–7 Commonwealth v. Walker, 181 Boudry, Maarten, 360 Comroe, Julius, Jr., 286–7 breast cancer screening, 194 conditional probability, 251–2 Bush, George W., 324–6 confirmation bias, 272–3, 290–1. See also Buxton Limeworks, 335–6 special pleading conflicts of interest, 354–5 categorical classifications, 35 confounders, 217–18 categorization, 347–52 association and, 227–8 causality, 214–17 compensating for, 246–9 appearance of, 219–20 control for, 229–34 assessment of, 220–3, 225–9 retrospective studies and, 226 coincidence vs, 210–11 conspiracy theories, 98 correlation vs, 21–2, 212–17 constructed reality, 159–74 general practice of seeking, 214–15 controlled trials, 260, 262 inability to observe, 21–2 controls, 84–5 philosophy and, 219 for auxiliary hypothesis, 86 reasoning of, 221 for confounders, 229–34 retroduction and, 45–6, 50–1, 148 experimental control, 222–3 unobserved causes, 22–3 negative control, 85 certainty positive control, 85 lack of certain knowledge through Convicting the Innocent: Where Criminal induction, 36 Prosecutions Go Wrong (Garrett), quantifying uncertainty, 254 180–1 religion and, 40–1, 75 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 315 scientific process, uncertainty of, 15, corporate interests, 324 20–1, 228–9, 255–60 corporate research, 301 utility of uncertain conclusions, 42–3 correlation, 217–18 Chabris, Christopher, 166 causal relationships and, 212–14 change blindness, 168 causality and, 214–17 chemistry, 140, 283, 338, 341 lack of causality and, 215 childbed fever, 308–9 mistaken correlation of unrelated things, clairvoyance, 241–2, 262–4, 266, 268 245–6 closed systems, 71 uncanny, 245–6 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47685-0 — What Science Is and How It Really Works James C. Zimring Index More Information creationism, 322, 364–5 disease CRISPR/CAS9, 344 diagnostic tests for, 192–5 DNA sequences and, 70–1 dark matter, 22–3, 115–16, 376–7 efforts to cure, 343–4 deducible consequences of, 118 foul vapors and, 310, 349–50 existence of, 116 genetic cause of, 222 Newtonian mechanics and, 117–18 heart disease and hormone replacement, Dart, Raymond, 335–6 225–6 Darwin, Charles, 140, 319–21, 366 divine sources of explanation, 40–1, 115, 189, data, 160, 331 206 belief constructs and, 154 DNA, 70–1, 140, 236 big data, 70 doctoral training programs, 281 cherry picking, 242 dogmatism, 333–4 circular reasoning when using data to double-blinded studies, 227, 229, 370–1 support theory, 374 The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness data based upon individual experience, 31 Rules Our Lives (Mlodinow), data dredging, 245–6 192, 294 deductive link to theory, 366 Duesberg, Peter, 311–13, 315 effect of theory on observation and data, Duhem, Pierre, 76–7, 82 178 Duhem-Quine problem, 76–7 expert opinion on, 317 “Dungeons and Dragons” and suicide, negative data, 80–1 189–90 pattern recognition and, 157–8 Durrell, Lawrence, 155 special position data holds in science, 141–6 Earth, centered v. Sun centered solar system, Declaration of Independence, U.S., 40 rotation of, 132–4, 176, 220 decreased repetition bias, 258 Eddington, Arthur, 277–8 deduction, 36–42 education of scientists, 2 as constituent of method of thinking, 61 Einstein, Albert, 72, 75–6, 151–2, 369–70, dark matter, deducible consequences of, 374–5 118 Popper on, 291 deductive coherence, 128–9 Theory of relativity, 72–3, 95, 118, 375 deductively invalid arguments and electronic voice phenomena (EVP), 165 common sense, 124 epistemology, 20–1, 354 formal, 38 Epperson v. Arkansas, 321–2 general use of, 353–4 “Equidistant Letter Sequences in the Book of HD and, 51–6, 99 Genesis” (Witztum, Rips and heuristics and, 125–7 Rosenberg), 243–4 induction and, 36, 38, 42 errors knowledge problem and, 39 of association, 184, 186, 201, 203–4, normal human thinking and, 43 206 predictions from, 111–12 benefits of cognitive errors, 127–9 rejection of theory using, 86 compensating for, 353–8 requirement for deducible outcomes, effort to mitigate human error, 242 115–21 estimating, 249–61 role in the web of belief, 111–12 Human errors, 242 scientific method and, 43 individual and societal, 302 Demauro, Patricia, 196–8 from instrumentation, 184 Dennett, Daniel, 151 multiple sampling error, 245–6 determinism, 219 in observation, 266 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47685-0 — What Science Is and How It Really Works James C. Zimring Index More Information in pattern recognition, 265 moving goal post, 256 scientific society and, 302–5, 313–16 “No True Scotsman,” 44.10, 242 type I errors, 147, 255, 257 regression to mean fallacy, 202–6 type II errors, 255 sharpshooting fallacy, 291–8, 357–8 escalation of commitment, 303–4 special pleading, 242, 276 ESP. See extrasensory perception falsification, 71–6 ethics, 145–6, 234–5, 237–8 FDA. See Food and Drug Administration Euclid, 41–2 Festinger, Leon, 105–6 everyday life Feyerabend, Paul, 291, 331–2, 357–8 HD thinking in, 52–3, 56–60 fidelity of human memory, 169–73, 184 human thinking in, 52 Firestein, Stuart, 9–15 lottery fallacy in, 190–2 Fisher, R. A., 253–5, 299–309 evidence on smoking, 299–301, 303–4 anecdotal, 246–7 Fleischmann, Martin, 333 association and, 260–1 Fleming, Alexander, 282–4 auxiliary hypotheses and, 79–80 Flick, Ludwick, 175–6 confirming, 66–71 Flying Spaghetti Monster, 115 hypotheses and, 66 follow-up scientists, 297–8, 305 philosophical literature on, 67 Food and Drug Administration (FDA), 235, 262 rejecting, 76, 303 fortune tellers, 262–3 evolution, 1, 321–2, 363–8 fossil record, 364, 366 EVP. See electronic voice phenomena foul vapors causing disease, 108–15 experience-based Fracastoro, Girolamo, 328 knowledge, 179–80 Frederick, Shane, 125 predictions, 28–9, 31 Freud, Sigmund, 73 thinking, 45 fringe beliefs, 327–8, 333 experimentation, 130–1, 134–5, 257, 355 fundamental premises, 41–2 experimental control, 223 fundamental truths, 20, 155 interventional experiments, 54 redundancy in experimental systems, Galen of Pergamon, 275–6 223–5 Galileo Galilei, 134–5, 183, 291, 294, 304–5, repeat, 139–40 315, 332–3, 357–8 seminal experiments, 288 Galle, Johann Gottfried, 92–3 experimenter-expectancy effect, 273 Gallon, Francis, 202 expert opinion, 317 gambler’s fallacy, 251 extension neglect, 188–90 Garrett, Brandon,