ADAPTING THE ENERGY SECTOR TO CLIMATE CHANGE The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency: AFGHANISTAN GERMANY PAKISTAN ALBANIA GHANA PALAU ALGERIA GREECE PANAMA ANGOLA GRENADA PAPUA NEW GUINEA ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA GUATEMALA PARAGUAY ARGENTINA GUYANA PERU ARMENIA HAITI PHILIPPINES AUSTRALIA HOLY SEE POLAND AUSTRIA HONDURAS PORTUGAL AZERBAIJAN HUNGARY QATAR BAHAMAS ICELAND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BAHRAIN INDIA BANGLADESH INDONESIA ROMANIA BARBADOS IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION BELARUS IRAQ RWANDA BELGIUM IRELAND SAINT LUCIA BELIZE ISRAEL SAINT VINCENT AND BENIN ITALY THE GRENADINES BOLIVIA, PLURINATIONAL JAMAICA SAN MARINO STATE OF JAPAN SAUDI ARABIA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA JORDAN SENEGAL BOTSWANA KAZAKHSTAN SERBIA BRAZIL KENYA SEYCHELLES BRUNEI DARUSSALAM KOREA, REPUBLIC OF SIERRA LEONE BULGARIA KUWAIT SINGAPORE BURKINA FASO KYRGYZSTAN SLOVAKIA BURUNDI LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC SLOVENIA CAMBODIA REPUBLIC SOUTH AFRICA CAMEROON LATVIA SPAIN CANADA LEBANON SRI LANKA CENTRAL AFRICAN LESOTHO SUDAN REPUBLIC LIBERIA CHAD LIBYA SWEDEN CHILE LIECHTENSTEIN SWITZERLAND CHINA LITHUANIA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC COLOMBIA LUXEMBOURG TAJIKISTAN CONGO MADAGASCAR THAILAND COSTA RICA MALAWI TOGO CÔTE D’IVOIRE MALAYSIA TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO CROATIA MALI TUNISIA CUBA MALTA TURKEY CYPRUS MARSHALL ISLANDS TURKMENISTAN CZECH REPUBLIC MAURITANIA UGANDA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC MAURITIUS UKRAINE OF THE CONGO MEXICO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DENMARK MONACO UNITED KINGDOM OF DJIBOUTI MONGOLIA GREAT BRITAIN AND DOMINICA MONTENEGRO NORTHERN IRELAND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOROCCO UNITED REPUBLIC ECUADOR MOZAMBIQUE OF TANZANIA EGYPT MYANMAR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA EL SALVADOR NAMIBIA ERITREA NEPAL URUGUAY ESTONIA NETHERLANDS UZBEKISTAN ESWATINI NEW ZEALAND VANUATU ETHIOPIA NICARAGUA VENEZUELA, BOLIVARIAN FIJI NIGER REPUBLIC OF FINLAND NIGERIA VIET NAM FRANCE NORTH MACEDONIA YEMEN GABON NORWAY ZAMBIA GEORGIA OMAN ZIMBABWE The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’. The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency: AFGHANISTAN GERMANY PAKISTAN ALBANIA GHANA PALAU ALGERIA GREECE PANAMA ANGOLA GRENADA PAPUA NEW GUINEA ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA GUATEMALA PARAGUAY ARGENTINA GUYANA PERU ARMENIA HAITI PHILIPPINES AUSTRALIA HOLY SEE POLAND AUSTRIA HONDURAS PORTUGAL AZERBAIJAN HUNGARY QATAR BAHAMAS ICELAND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BAHRAIN INDIA BANGLADESH INDONESIA ROMANIA BARBADOS IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION BELARUS IRAQ RWANDA BELGIUM IRELAND SAINT LUCIA BELIZE ISRAEL SAINT VINCENT AND ADAPTING THE ENERGY SECTOR BENIN ITALY THE GRENADINES BOLIVIA, PLURINATIONAL JAMAICA SAN MARINO STATE OF JAPAN SAUDI ARABIA TO CLIMATE CHANGE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA JORDAN SENEGAL BOTSWANA KAZAKHSTAN SERBIA BRAZIL KENYA SEYCHELLES BRUNEI DARUSSALAM KOREA, REPUBLIC OF SIERRA LEONE BULGARIA KUWAIT SINGAPORE BURKINA FASO KYRGYZSTAN SLOVAKIA BURUNDI LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC SLOVENIA CAMBODIA REPUBLIC SOUTH AFRICA CAMEROON LATVIA SPAIN CANADA LEBANON SRI LANKA CENTRAL AFRICAN LESOTHO SUDAN REPUBLIC LIBERIA CHAD LIBYA SWEDEN CHILE LIECHTENSTEIN SWITZERLAND CHINA LITHUANIA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC COLOMBIA LUXEMBOURG TAJIKISTAN CONGO MADAGASCAR THAILAND COSTA RICA MALAWI TOGO CÔTE D’IVOIRE MALAYSIA TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO CROATIA MALI TUNISIA CUBA MALTA TURKEY CYPRUS MARSHALL ISLANDS TURKMENISTAN CZECH REPUBLIC MAURITANIA UGANDA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC MAURITIUS UKRAINE OF THE CONGO MEXICO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DENMARK MONACO UNITED KINGDOM OF DJIBOUTI MONGOLIA GREAT BRITAIN AND DOMINICA MONTENEGRO NORTHERN IRELAND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOROCCO UNITED REPUBLIC ECUADOR MOZAMBIQUE OF TANZANIA EGYPT MYANMAR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA EL SALVADOR NAMIBIA ERITREA NEPAL URUGUAY ESTONIA NETHERLANDS UZBEKISTAN ESWATINI NEW ZEALAND VANUATU ETHIOPIA NICARAGUA VENEZUELA, BOLIVARIAN FIJI NIGER REPUBLIC OF FINLAND NIGERIA VIET NAM FRANCE NORTH MACEDONIA YEMEN GABON NORWAY ZAMBIA GEORGIA OMAN ZIMBABWE The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’. VIENNA, 2019 COPYRIGHT NOTICE All IAEA scientific and technical publications are protected by the terms of the Universal Copyright Convention as adopted in 1952 (Berne) and as revised in 1972 (Paris). The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual property. Permission to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications in printed or electronic form must be obtained and is usually subject to royalty agreements. Proposals for non-commercial reproductions and translations are welcomed and considered on a case-by-case basis. Enquiries should be addressed to the IAEA Publishing Section at: Marketing and Sales Unit, Publishing Section International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre PO Box 100 1400 Vienna, Austria fax: +43 1 26007 22529 tel.: +43 1 2600 22417 email: [email protected] www.iaea.org/publications © IAEA, 2019 Printed by the IAEA in Austria September 2019 STI/PUB/1847 IAEA Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Names: International Atomic Energy Agency. Title: Adapting the energy sector to climate change / International Atomic Energy Agency. Description: Vienna : International Atomic Energy Agency, 2019. | Series: - ; ISSN ; no. | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: IAEAL 19–01258 | ISBN 978–92–0–100919–7 (paperback : alk. paper) Subjects: Energy industries — Environmental aspects. | Energy policy. | Climate change mitigation. Classification: UDC 620.91:551.588.7 | STI/PUB/1847 FOREWORD Anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing the world, accelerating the rise in the global mean temperature and affecting most other attributes of the Earth’s climate. Although a considerable degree of uncertainty persists both in the magnitude of projected global changes and regional patterns, changes in global and regional temperatures, precipitation amounts and seasonal distribution, a sea level rise, and various extreme events are forecast by most global and regional climate models. These changes have already had an impact on nuclear energy installations and the energy sector in general, and the effects are expected to be amplified as the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions results in further global warming and associated changes to the climate. Since 2010, there has been a growing interest in impact studies that explore options and their associated costs to reduce the vulnerability of the energy sector to climate change, and the longer term impacts and adaptation options. Indeed, the global energy sector faces a double challenge in the next 20–30 years. Not only does the sector need to be fundamentally transformed into a low carbon energy supply system in response to climate change mitigation and related policies (e.g. the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), it also needs to adapt to climate change and its effects to ensure that energy supplies remain secure and reliable. This publication explores the diverse range of impacts on the energy sector resulting from gradual climate change and extreme weather events, and the potential ways to counter them. All elements of the supply chain are explored: resource base, extraction and transport of depletable energy sources, power generation, transmission and distribution. This publication includes three case studies which assess the energy sector vulnerability of Argentina, Pakistan and Slovenia. The studies were prepared as part of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project on Technoeconomic Evaluation of Options for Adapting Nuclear and Other Energy Infrastructure to Long Term Climate Change and Extreme Weather. This publication presents the topics explored, methods adopted and insights gained from the Coordinated Research Project and will be useful to States interested in evaluating climate related risks to the energy sector. The IAEA officer responsible for this publication was L. Stankeviciute of the Division of Planning, Information and Knowledge Management. EDITORIAL NOTE This publication has been edited by the editorial staff of the IAEA to the extent considered necessary for the reader’s assistance. It does not address questions of responsibility, legal or otherwise, for acts or omissions on the part of any person. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of information contained in this publication, neither the IAEA nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from its use. Guidance provided here, describing good practices, represents expert opinion but does not constitute recommendations made on the basis of a consensus of Member States. The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories,