Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands 2 | Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands | 3 4 | Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands Contents Foreword and reader’s guide 7 1 Introduction 8 The National Safety and Security Strategy 9 2 Summary of roles and stages in the method 12 Roles 1 3 Process of choices for scenarios 14 Scenario development 15 The National Risk Assessment 17 Capability analysis and agenda-setting 21 Decision-making and implementation 22 Confidentiality 22 Regional risk profile 23 3 Details 24 Steering Group and Interdepartmental Working Group National Safety and Security 25 Network of Analysts for National Safety and Security 26 Task group member of Network of Analysts National Safety and Security 27 General Secretary of Network of Analysts National Safety and Security 28 Project leader scenarios 29 Working Group coordinator of Network of Analysts National Safety and Security 30 Expert involved in formulating the scenarios 31 Expert involved in the assessment of scenarios 32 Chairperson capabilities analysis 33 Secretary capabilities analysis 33 Expert involved in capabilities analysis 33 Facilitator 36 Leading group 37 Time scale 38 Vital products and services involved in scoring 39 Demands of a scenario 41 Scenario development and probability 43 Assigning the impact scores 46 Impact criterion 1.1 Encroachment on the territory of the Netherlands 48 Impact criterion 1.2 Infringement of the international position of the Netherlands 2.1 Fatalities 52 Impact criterion 2.2 Seriously injured and chronically ill 53 Impact criterion 2.3 Physical suffering (lack of basic necessities of life) 54 Impact criterion 3.1 Costs and impairment to the economy 55 Impact criterion 4.1 Long-term impact on the environment and nature (flora and fauna) 58 Impact criterion 5.1 Disruption of everyday life 64 Impact criterion 5.2 Violation of the democratic system 65 Impact criterion 5.3 Social psychological impact and social unrest 67 Probability assessment for non-wilful scenarios 71 Probability assessment for wilful scenarios 73 Probability assessment for process scenarios 71 Definition of risk 76 Sensitivity 77 Risk diagram 78 Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands | 5 How to read and use the risk diagram 79 Process scenarios 81 Steps in the capability analysis 88 Short-term survey 90 4 Formats and background information 91 Confidentiality agreement 92 Format description of scenario National Risk Assessment 96 Using expert opinions 103 Key indicators relating to criterion 3.1a 105 Explanation about criterion 3.1b 106 Examples of estimating probability class 111 Translation of completed criteria tables into labels 115 Blank format for composition of working group capability analysis 119 Protocol for working method of capability analysis 120 List of capabilities 121 Blank format for capabilities that appear immediately from the scenario and scoring 130 Blank format with results of prioritised capabilities 131 Final report of capability analysis and input for text of findings report 132 6 | Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands Foreword and reader’s guide This is the revised practical guide of the National Safety The National Safety and Security and Security Strategy. The primary aim of this guide is to Strategy and the Regional Risk Profile provide a user’s guide for all those people working in whichever capability with the National Safety and Security Following the example given by the government, the Strategy. municipalities and safety regions are also using a similar method for making an inventory and analysis of risks and Reader’s guide weighing up the necessary capabilities. This method is set This guide is set out in four different levels. The first out in the Regional Risk Profile Guide. Further information includes an Introduction of the National Safety and about this can be found here. Security Strategy, which is intended to give a complete overview. The second contains a summary of the different Responsibility for this document roles and a description of the separate stages in the This revised guide was compiled by the method group for strategy. The third level comprises descriptions worked national safety and security, consisting of: out in further detail, which are particularly relevant for • Ir. Jasper van der Horst - Aon Global Risk Consulting those people who are directly involved with those parts of • Dr. Erik Pruyt, Technical University of Delft, Faculty of the strategy. The fourth level contains tools, such as Technology, Administration and Management, Policy formats and checklists and background information. Analysis Section • Drs. Diederik Wijnmalen - TNO, Behavioural and Using the guide digitally Societal Sciences / Integral Security Theme When using the guide digitally, there are references in • General Intelligence and Security Service (Algemene many places that enable you quickly to find the informa- Inlichtingen en Veiligheidsdienst) tion you are looking for. Click on the link and you will go to • Dr. Pieter van der Torn - Regional Risk Profile Platform the information you require. Using the keyboard combina- • Dr. Marcel Mennen - National Institute for Public Health tion Alt + arrow to the left, you can return to your previous and the Environment place. If you read a paper version of the guide, then you • Drs. Marco Haas - Ministry of Security and Justice can do so most easily by using the individual role descrip- • Ir. Marc Bökkerink - Ministry of Security and Justice tion that suits your own situation the best for following a route through the document. Autumn 2012 I am an interested party: what should I read? You should start with the Introduction about the National Safety and Security Strategy and follow the references given thereby. Introduction I play a role in the strategy: what should I read? Level 1 You should start with the Introduction about the National Stages in the method Safety and Security Strategy and the summary of the Level 3 different roles. Then go to the more detailed description of your own role. There you will find references to the texts Level 4 Description of roles that are relevant to you. Formats Detailed descriptions etc. Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands | 7 1 Introduction 8 | Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities in the National Safety and Security Strategy of the Netherlands The National Safety and At which crises is the National Safety Security Strategy and Security Strategy aimed? The National Safety and Security Strategy is aimed at What is the National Safety and Security crises that can lead to social disruption. An important Strategy? focus thereby lies with the potential impairment to the vital interests of Dutch society. The five vital interests are: The National Safety and Security Strategy is the instru- territorial safety, physical safety, economic safety, ment used by the Government of the Netherlands for risk ecological safey and social and political stability. management in order to be able to protect the vital Impairment of the vital interests would occur to a greater interests of Dutch society better and thereby help to extent if the vital infrastructure is affected by a crisis. prevent Dutch society becoming disrupted as the result of Sectors included under the vital infrastructure are a crisis. The government uses the National Safety and Electricity, Gas, Drinking Water, Telecommunications/IT, Security Strategy to measure different types of disasters Finances and Transport. (Long-term) interference in these and crises under the same terms in order to be able to sectors can lead to social, economic and/or political compare them, which enables the government to make disruption. policy choices that are better substantiated. Every type of crisis that can lead to social disruption (in other words, impairment of the vital interests) can be processed in the How is the National Safety and Security strategy (all-hazard approach). The probability that a Strategy elaborated? particular crisis will occur is also assessed, as well as how great the impact of the crisis would be if the situation The Cabinet is responsible for the implementation of the continued for a period of five years. The aim of the National Safety and Security Strategy. The Minister of National Safety and Security Strategy is to identify those Security and Justice holds the portfolio. The implementa- capacities that require increasing or developing in order to tion is carried out in collaboration with the other minis- prepare the Netherlands better in dealing with crises and tries, the Network of Analysts for National Safety and thereby prevent an undesirable level of social disruption. Security, decentralised governmental departments, the By annually assessing different scenarios for their business community, knowledge institutions and planning probability