1 Processes of Policy Mobility in the Governance of Volcanic Risk Graeme Alexander William Sinclair Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster LA1 4YQ UK Submitted 2019 This thesis is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. 2 Statement of Declaration I hereby declare that the content of this PhD thesis is my own work except where otherwise specified by reference or acknowledgement, and has not been previously submitted for any other degree or qualification. Graeme A.W. Sinclair 3 Abstract —National and regional governments are responsible for the development of public policy for volcanic risk reduction (VRR) within their territories. However, practices vary significantly between jurisdictions. A priority of the international volcanological community is the identification and promotion of improved VRR through collaborative knowledge exchange. This project investigates the role of knowledge exchange in the development of VRR. The theories and methods of policy mobility studies are used to identify and explore how, why, where and with what effects international exchanges of knowledge have shaped this area of public policy. Analyses have been performed through the construction of narrative histories. This project details the development of social apparatus for VRR worldwide, depicted as a global policy field on three levels - the global (macro) level; the national (meso) level; and at individual volcanoes (the micro level). The narratives track the transition from a historical absence of VRR policy through the global proliferation of a reactive 'emergency management' approach, to the emergence of an alternative based on long-term planning and community empowerment that has circulated at the macro level, but struggled to translate into practice. This is explored using five case volcanoes: Merapi, Indonesia; Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia; Mount Rainier, USA; Popocatépetl and Volcán de Colima, México. These cases demonstrate that policymakers at active volcanoes do not always deliberately access knowledge curated at the 'core' of the global policy field and use it to rationally develop 'best practice' VRR policies. More frequently, the transient topologies that carry knowledge between volcanoes, the assemblages of mobile knowledge with evolving local politics, culture and volcanic activity, and resulting mutations have produced unique and unpredictable results at each volcano. Mobile policies may encounter local resistance, ideas may go unused for decades and evolution over time does not automatically entail 'progression' towards an ideal. This work carries lessons for those seeking 'improved' VRR through knowledge exchange, including the development of the policy field across time and strata; current understanding of 'best practices' in VRR; challenges encountered when mobilising VRR policy into different volcanic settings; and examples of efforts to overcome those challenges. Keywords — Volcanic Risk Governance, Policy Mobility Studies, Applied Volcanology, Critical Policy Studies, Disaster Risk Reduction, Volcán de Colima, Gunung Merapi, Nevado del Ruiz, Mount Rainier, Popocatépetl 4 Contents List of Figures/Tables...p.6 Acknowledgements...p.7 1. Introduction...p.8 2. An Assemblage of Literatures: Applied Volcanology, Disaster Risk Science and Policy Mobility Studies...p.13 2.1. Volcanic Activity...p.13 2.2. Volcanic Hazards and Risk: An Overview...p.16 2.2.1. Volcanic Gas Hazards...p.17 2.2.2. Lava Flow Hazards...p.18 2.2.3. Tephra Hazards...p.19 2.2.4. Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards...p.20 2.2.5. Lahar and Flood Hazards...p.21 2.2.6. Debris Avalanche Hazards...p.22 2.2.7. Volcanoseismic Hazards...p.23 2.2.8. Volcanic Lightning Hazards...p.23 2.2.9. Globalised Volcanic Risk...p.24 2.3. Volcanic Risk Governance...p.25 2.3.1. Disaster Risk Reduction and Public Policy...p.26 2.3.2. Volcanic Risk Reduction Policy and Practice...p.36 2.4. Policy Mobilities...p.40 3. Mobile Methodologies in the Study of Volcanic Risk Governance...p.44 3.1. Policy Mobility Studies: Analytical Framework and Methods...p.44 3.2. Narrative Case Study Methodologies...p.45 3.2.1. Narrative Analysis Methods...p.46 3.2.2. Selection of Case Studies...p.50 3.2.3. Ethnographic Field Research...p.52 3.2.4. Cross-Case Analyses...p.54 4. Volcanic Risk Governance Through Space and Time...p.57 4.1. Pre-Civil Defence Volcanic Risk Governance...p.57 4.1.1. Volcanic Risk Governance in Ancient Rome...p.57 4.1.2. The Origin of International Disaster Relief...p.59 4.1.3. Volcanic Risk Governance in the 19th Century...p.60 4.1.4. Volcanic Risk Governance in the Early 20th Century...p.70 4.2. Volcanic Risk Governance in the era of Civil Defence and Emergency Management...p.79 4.3. Volcanic Risk Governance in the era of Disaster Risk Reduction...p.95 4.4. Synthesis...p.104 5. Case Histories of Volcanic Risk Governance...p.108 5.1. Gunung Merapi, Java, Indonesia...p.108 5.1.1. Early Volcanic Risk Governance at Merapi...p.111 5.1.2. Volcanic Risk Governance at Merapi after the establishment of the Indonesian Republic...p.114 5 5.1.3. Volcanic Risk Governance at Merapi in the era of Reformasi...p.119 5.2. Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia...p.127 5.2.1. Early Recorded Eruptions at Ruiz...p.130 5.2.2. The Development of the Polity of Colombia...p.131 5.2.3. The Eruption of November 1985...p.133 5.2.4 Volcanic Risk Governance at Nevado del Ruiz since 1985...p.140 5.3. Mount Rainier, United States of America...p.149 5.3.1. The Roots of Volcanic Risk Governance at Mount Rainier...p.152 5.3.2. The Mount Rainier Volcanic Hazards Response Plan...p.153 ` 5.3.3. Recent Developments...p.157 5.4. Popocatépetl, United Mexican States...p.159 5.4.1. Early Volcanic Risk Governance in México...p.161 5.4.2. The Reawakening of Popocatépetl and the Plan Operativo...p.163 5.4.3. Recent Developments...p.169 5.5. Synthesis...p.172 6. Pueblo Chico, Infierno Grande: Policy Mobility and Volcanic Risk Governance at Volcán de Colima, México...p.175 6.1. Volcán de Colima, Setting and Background...p.175 6.2. Assembling Mobile Policy Around an Active Volcano: The Roots of Volcanic Risk Governance at Volcán de Colima...p.182 6.3. Prueba de Fuego: The First Crises of Volcanic Risk Governance at Volcán de Colima...p.186 6.4. Behavioural Issues: Mobile Origins and Conflicting Visions of Volcanic Risk Governance during the 1997-2003 Eruptive Activity at Volcán de Colima...p.192 6.5. Cuanto Más Cambian las Cosas, Más Siguen Igual: Local 'Mutations' in the Volcanic Risk Policy System at Volcán de Colima...p.203 6.6. Synthesis...p.243 7. Harnessing Processes of Policy Mobility in the Development of Volcanic Risk Reduction: Aspirations, Complications, Considerations...p.246 7.1. General Lessons from Chapters 4-6...p.246 7.2. Aspirations...p.248 7.3. Complications...p.251 7.4. Considerations...p.255 8. Conclusions...p.258 References...p.267 Appendix I - Glossary of Acronyms...p.291 Appendix II - Interviewees...p.294 Appendix III - Consent Form for Interviewees (English) ...p.296 Appendix IV - Participant Information Sheet for Interviewees (English) ...p.297 Appendix V - Samples of Interview Transcripts...p.301 6 List of Figures/Tables Figure 2.1. Graphic representation of the Volcanic Explosivity Index...p.15 Figure 2.2. Distribution across volcanic fatalities for all fatality causes on record...p.17 Figure 2.3. The 'classic' 5-step policy cycle model...p.27 Figure 2.4. The disaster management cycle...p.29 Figure 5.1. Aerial photograph of Gunung Merapi...p.109 Figure 5.2. Map of the Merapi area...p.110 Figure 5.3. The institutional framework for disaster risk at Merapi...p.123 Figure 5.4. Aerial photograph of Nevado del Ruiz...p.128 Figure 5.5. Map of Nevado del Ruiz...p.129 Figure 5.6. Photograph of Mount Rainier...p.150 Figure 5.7. United States Geological Survey hazard map of Mount Rainier...p.151 Figure 5.8. The command structure of the Mount Rainier Volcanic Hazards Response Plan...p.155 Figure 5.9. Vulcanian explosion at Popocatépetl...p.160 Figure 5.10 Map showing the location of Popocatépetl within central México...p.161 Figure 5.11. Structure of SINAPROC, the Mexican National System of Civil Protection...p.162 Figure 5.12. Popocatépetl Volcano Traffic Light Alert System...p.166 Figure 6.1. Small Vulcanian explosion at Volcán de Colima...p.176 Figure 6.2. Map of Volcán de Colima and surrounding major population centres...p.177 Figure 6.3. Map of populations within a 15 km radius of the active vent...p.179 Figure 6.4. Digital elevation model of Volcán de Colima...p.181 Figure 6.5. Volcanic Alert Semaphore, Juan Barragán, Jalisco...p.196 Figure 6.6. View of ash clouds from 10th July 2015 eruption...p.222 Figure 6.7. Satellite image of Volcán de Colima showing the distribution of the July 2015 PDCs...p.228 Figure 6.8. Semáforo de Alerta Volcánica Volcán de Colima...p.242 Table 3.1 Key moments in the evolution of global disaster risk management...p.48 Table 5.1. USGS Summary of Volcano Alert Levels...p.156 Table 5.2. Summary of mitigation measures against volcanic hazards in operation in Pierce County, Washington...p.157 Table 6.1. 2010 census data for the closest population centres to the active vent at Volcán de Colima in the states of Colima and Jalisco...p.178 7 Acknowledgements First and foremost, thanks to my parents and David, without whose constant love, support and patience, none of this would have been possible. To my family on all sides for the same reasons. I would like to thank my supervisors, Dr Jennie Gilbert and Professor Nigel Clark, for not saying 'no' when I emailed them with nothing but hope and a spark of an idea in summer 2014, for bringing this project to fruition through a year and a half of uncertainty, for believing in me and the project and for being with me every step of the way with outstanding support, advice and countless cups of tea.