The GraceKennedy Foundation Lecture 2015 Why Climate Demands Change Michael A. Taylor GraceKennedy Foundation Published in February 2015 by the GraceKennedy Foundation 73 Harbour Street, Kingston Jamaica, West Indies Telephone: (876) 922-3440-9 Ext. 3540/1 ©2015 GraceKennedy Foundation ISBN 978-976-8041-33-3 (e-book) Printed in Jamaica by The Phoenix Printery Limited Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................. v List of Figures ........................................................................................ vi List of Tables ....................................................................................... viii List of Abbreviations ............................................................................ ix The GraceKennedy Foundation and GraceKennedy Foundation Lectures ....................................................... x The GraceKennedy Foundation Lecture Series...................................... xii The GraceKennedy Foundation Lecture, 2015 .................................... xiv The Lecture Prologue ................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1 Inherent Sensitivity ............................................................... 4 Chapter 2 Growing Vulnerability ........................................................ 18 Chapter 3 Threated Sustainability........................................................ 37 Chapter 4 Urgent Priority ................................................................... 57 Epilogue Present Opportunity ............................................................. 80 References ............................................................................................ 81 Appendix .............................................................................................. 90 Acknowledgements I wish to acknowledge those who have contributed to this lecture. I am grateful to: • My family (dad, mom, Yvette, Amanda, Melanie, William, siblings and other extended family) for their unswerving support and constant encouragement. • The Climate Studies Group, Mona for research assistance, especially Ms Felicia Whyte, and for being a place to bounce ideas and do research. • The GraceKennedy Foundation and its chair, Professor Emerita Elsa Leo-Rhynie, for the honour. • Caroline Mahfood, the Executive Director of the GraceKennedy Foundation for guidance and support. • Charmaine McKenzie, for patience and for her skills at editing. • The members of the UWI community for their encouragement and constructive criticism. • The wider circle of friends, colleagues and communities, for honing perspective. It is my hope that this lecture will contribute in some way to the regional effort to build climate resilient societies. – v – List of Figures Figure 1 Left: Observed annual and decadal global mean surface temperature anomalies from 1850 to 2012 relative to the mean of 1961–1990. Above: Map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012. Source: IPCC (2013) Figure 2 Top: Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2. top line), methane (CH4, middle line), and nitrous oxide (N2O, bottom line) determined from ice core data (dots) and from direct atmospheric measurements (lines). Bottom: Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from forestry and other land use as well as from burning of fossil fuel, cement production, and flaring. Source: IPCC (2013) Figure 3 Rainfall (bar) and temperature (line) climatologies for Jamaica. Figure 4 Climate cycles in Caribbean life. Sources: Inter-American Development Bank (2010) and Jamaica Public Service Company Ltd. (2014) Figure 5 Jamaica’s electricity grid. Source: Jamaica Public Service Company Ltd. Figure 6 Trends in (a) daytime temperatures (TXmean), (b) night-time temperatures (TNmean) and (c) diurnal temperature range (DTR). Source: Stephenson et al. (2014) Figure 7 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the Caribbean using for the period 1979 to 2010. Figure 8 The number of north tropical Atlantic storms (red) and hurricanes (blue) from 1950–2013. Source: NOAA. Figure 9 Tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms passing within 200 km of Jamaica during the period 1980–1999 (left) and 2000– 2012 (right). Source: HURDAT Database. Figure 10 The 2014 drought in the Jamaican news. Figure 11 Hurricane Dean storm surge heights and affected communities in Jamaica. Source: Prepared by PIOJ, 2008, based on data provided by Mines and Geology Department, Jamaica. – vi – Figure 12 The agriculture production index (API) for Jamaica, 1986– 2006. Figure 13 Projected future carbon emissions for the SRES emission scenarios. Figure 14 Radiative Forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways, from van Vuuren et al. (2011). Figure 15 Top: Projected annual temperature change for the Caribbean relative to 1986–2005 for the four RCPs. Bottom: Projected percentage change in annual rainfall amounts for the Caribbean relative to 1986–2005 for the four RCPs. Figure 16 Temperature projections for 2071–2100 relative to 1961– 1990 under the A2 scenario. Figure 17 Rainfall projections for 2071–2100 relative to the 1961–1990 percentage change. Figure 18 Coastal vulnerability of western Jamaica to sea level rise/storm surge. – vii – List of Tables Table 1 Six manifestations of climate change Table 2 Water profiles for selected Caribbean countries Table 3 Tide gauge observed sea-level trends for Caribbean stations. Adapted from Torres & Tsimplis (2013) Table 4 Some recent examples of climate impact in the Caribbean Table 5 Estimated economic impact of recent extreme climate events on Jamaica. Source: Various PIOJ reports Table 6 Projected increases in global mean sea level (m) Table 7 The year of climate departure for selected world cities for two future scenarios. Source: Mora et al. (2013) Table 8 Cost of global inaction on climate change as a percentage of 2004 GDP for the Caribbean region Table 9 Examples of recent regional climate change initiatives which have yielded action plans or recommendations for building resilience to climate change. Source: CCCCC Table 10 Examples of sectoral adaptation strategies and actions proposed for the Caribbean region Table 11 Estimates of adaptation costs in developing countries for 2010–2015 – viii – Abbreviations A1 High Emissions Scenario generated by the IPCC A1B Medium Emissions Scenario generated by the IPCC A2 High Emissions Scenario generated by the IPCC AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States API Agricultural Production Index AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change B1 Low Emissions Scenario generated by the IPCC B2 Low Emissions Scenario generated by the IPCC CARICOM Caribbean Community CARSEA Caribbean Sea Ecosystem Assessment CCCCC or 5Cs Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre CIMH Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology CSGM Climate Studies Group, Mona DTR Diurnal Temperature Range ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean GCMs Global Climate Models GDP Gross Domestic Product GHGs Greenhouse gases JPS Jamaica Public Service Company Ltd. NAH North Atlantic High PIOJ Planning Institute of Jamaica PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies RCMs Regional Climate Models RCPs Representative Concentration Pathways SAMOA SIDS Accelerated Modalities of Action SPI Standardized Precipitation Index SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SST Sea Surface Temperature UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers – ix – The GraceKennedy Foundation and GraceKennedy Foundation Lectures he establishment of the GraceKennedy Foundation in 1982, in Tcelebration of the company’s 60th anniversary, has proven to be one of the most significant contributions that GraceKennedy has made to national development. The vision of the Foundation is to have a positive impact on the quality of people’s lives. It does this by focussing its assistance on two main areas: the environment and education. This is accomplished primarily through the provision of grants to charitable organizations; the scholarship and bursary programme; the funding of two Professorial Chairs at The University of the West Indies and the Annual Lecture Series. This year’s Lecture helps to highlight our longstanding commitment to preserving and protecting the environment. In 1982 we established the James Moss-Solomon Snr. Chair in Environmental Management, which has been integral in fostering research, innovation and leadership in this important field. Over the past two years the parent company has partnered with the Foundation to contribute $1m annually to the UWI Plastic Bottle Separation and Recovery Project. The funding is used not only for the UWI’s initiatives but also to introduce recycling to our subsidiaries located in Kingston as we foster a culture of environmentally-conscious corporate citizenship. We are aware that much more can be done and our hope is that the Lecture will be a springboard for further change, not only at GraceKennedy but throughout Jamaica and across the Caribbean region. We are confident that this Lecture will continue in the tradition of previous Lectures and will become an invaluable resource for all who seek a deeper understanding of national issues. Copies of the book are distributed to schools and public libraries across the island, an e-book version is available online at www.gracekennedy.com, and the Lecture is streamed live via