Manawatu District Council Manawatu District Council Draft Annual Report Roading For the period ending 30 June 2015 2018- 21 Programme Business Case & 2018- 48 Activity Management Plan 1 1 Document Approved by Document Activity Transportation Information Version 9.0 Release State Final Author John Jones, Roading Manager Contribution Darryn Black, Asset Management Engineer Brent Holmes, Roading Operations Team Leader, Jim Mestyanek, Senior Project Engineer Wendy Thompson, Principal Planning Adviser Reviewed Internally By Hamish Waugh, General Manager - Infrastructure Reviewed Externally By Jonathan Roylance, Associate Director, Specialist Audit and Assurance Services: Audit New Zealand. Paul Murphy, Senior Investment Advisor, NZTA. Revision History Version Date Type 1.0 1/7/2017 Review – Initial Draft 2.0 14/7/17 Review – Inc. Draft Budgets 3.0 31/8/17 Review – Inc. NZTA comments 4.0 15/9/17 Review – Entered into TIO 5.0 20/10/17 Review – Entered into TIO 6.0 16/12/17 Review – Entered into TIO 7.0 12/1/18 Review – Following Council Workshop 21/12/17 8.0 30/6/18 Review – Following Council Deliberations 9.0 19/6/18 Final Adoption By Resolution of the Council 26/7/18 2 3 Preface This document is comprised of two interrelated pieces of work, the Programme Business Case, and the Activity Management Plan. The Programme Business Case The Programme Business Case (PBC) follows the NZ Transport Agency’s Business Case Approach (BCA), which is founded on the following overarching principles: Quality analysis – the work is evidence based, thoughtful and focused. Fit for purpose effort – The effort is right sized to the risks and uncertainties. No surprises –the investment story identifies the risks and uncertainties and allows issues to be addressed earlier in the process when it is more cost effective to deal with them. Aligned to management processes – The BCA works with the methodologies, approaches and processes that are in place and is complementary to them. The PBC identifies a range of issues and the optimal programme. The PBC presents an early opportunity for stakeholders to influence the direction of investment. It allows the Council and NZTA the opportunity to refine the programme and make trade-offs between risks and benefits. The PBC also presents an early opportunity for stakeholders to influence the direction of investment. The PBC is a living document that will be revisited as the programme is being delivered. The PBC demonstrates a thorough understanding of the problems, opportunities and constraints developed within the Activity Management Plan and creates a clear way forward. The recommended programme will be delivered by a number of parties over a period of time, therefore the programme has been developed in a coordinated manner to produce synergies. The Activity Management Plan The Activity Management Plan (AMP) was developed following the Activity Management Guide for Approved Organisations Road Networks (February 2015) Local Government New Zealand EquiP – Road Transport Unit. Council has an appreciation of the community's key transport needs for the next thirty years. For the 2018-21 period Council has established a clear understanding of how its costs and levels of service compare to our neighbours and peers. Council also understands where changes to the levels of services will require a different approach to maintenance planning and delivery. Council is well aligned to the Regional Land Transport Plan strategic transport objectives and the GPS. Both of which have been validated at Roading Efficiency Group (REG) workshops and by the regional transport officers group. The PBC and AMP have been audited by Jonathan Roylance, Associate Director, Specialist Audit and Assurance Services: Audit New Zealand and confirmed as being fit for purpose. Feedback has also been received from the Transport Agency and the issues raised have been addressed and incorporated in these documents. 4 5 Programme Business Case 6 7 Contents Executive Summary Purpose The Programme Business Case (PBC) outlines the strategic context and case for Manawatu District Council’s investment in the Roading activity. It draws on the evidence provided in the Activity Management Plan (AMP) which prioritises and addresses key transportation issues and illustrates how assets are intended to be managed. Strategic context The maintenance strategy and proposed capital projects included in the PBC and AMP are consistent with, and contribute towards achieving wider national and regional land transport priorities and objectives. These priorities and objectives are guided by the Government Policy Statement on Land Transport (GPS), NZTA’s Long Term Strategic View, and the Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP). By ensuring alignment with these high level strategic documents, the Council will not only realise its local strategic vision, but will also play its role in achieving a regional strategic integrated land transport network. Problems Maintenance: Land use changes and transport requirements are placing increasing stresses on the form and function of the network. The changing demands and needs of road users are impacting on the Customer Levels of Service (CLoS) previously provided, resulting in an increase in reactive interventions. For evidence see Section 9: Demand Changes. Low Resilience of the Network: During periods of intense rainfall Feilding, Rongotea, Kairanga/Bainesse and Tangimoana are prone to flooding . Also mudslides, debris flows and rock slides occur in the rural hinterland. The costs of Emergency Works (EW) is averaging $ $1.2m per annum and trending towards $1.6m. The problem is that the existing drainage system is unable to cope with the increasingly frequent intense rainfall events. For evidence see AMP Section 11: Resilience. Forestry Harvest: The increase in logging traffic has commenced and there will be a peak between 2024 and 2029 with 1.3 million tonnes of timber predicted to be extracted during that period. The increase in logging trucks will erode Network CLoS for Safety, Accessibility, Efficiency, Amenity and Travel Time Reliability (TTR). This will place pressure on rural road maintenance schedules. The size and remote locations of some major forest lots will require road maintenance and harvest regimes that maintain both public use and harvest sustainability. For evidence see Section 9: Demand Changes. Safety: There is a high level of Serious and Fatal (S&F) crashes per vehicle Kilometre Travelled i.e. High Personal Risk. This results in high social and economic cost. For evidence see AMP Section 7: Network levels of service for safety, and Section 14: Benchmarking. Population Growth: The District is experiencing significant growth rates (approximately 4%) with forecasts, both economic and population, expected to continue. This will require additional un- subsidised investment for new infrastructure and upgrading the existing. To enable economic growth and productivity investment is required to provide transport access for housing development in high urban growth area and the growth expected at the Kawakawa Road Industrial Park, which will provide 97ha of land for future industrial land use. For evidence see Section 9: Demand Changes. 8 Contents The Benefits of solving these problems Efficient Network: A network that is efficient, supports economic activity, is fit for purpose and meets CLoS. For more detail see AMP Section 8: Levels of service, output and efficiency measures, and Section 14: Benchmarking. Resilient Network: An increasingly consistent accessible, fit for purpose network that meets CLoS. For more detail see AMP Section 2: Strategic Environment, and Section 9: Demand Changes. Safe Network: Minimise the risk and consequences of crashes. For more detail see AMP Section 7: Network levels of service for safety, and Section 14: Benchmarking. Enable Growth: Enable Growth in the Residential and Industrial Areas of the Manawatu. For more detail see AMP Section 2: Strategic Environment, and Section 9: Demand Changes. The Consequences of not adopting the recommended programme Maintenance: Road maintenance is essential in order to (1) preserve the road asset (2) protect adjacent resources and user safety, and (3) provide efficient, convenient travel along the route. If maintenance is neglected or improperly performed there will be a rapid deterioration of the road and eventual failure from both climatic and vehicle use impacts. If the investment is reduced the result would be a more patched and rougher network, particularly on Access and Low Volume roads. There would also be a risk of occasional pavement failures if maintenance treatments fall below the base preservation levels. This would likely attract increased complaints from road users in the community, and negative media coverage. Resilience: Between 2010 and 2017 the average annual investment in Routine Drainage maintenance and Renewals has been approximately $780,000. This has been insufficient as evidenced by the increasing expenditure on Emergency Works triggered by very high intensity rainfall and severe winds. If the investment in Routine Drainage maintenance and Renewals is reduced and the additional investment required for Resilience Improvements is not forth coming then the annual average cost of Emergency Reinstatement is likely to be in the region of $3.9 million. There will also be an increased likelihood of unplanned events on route availability, and the number of journeys not made due to unplanned events. As a consequences customers will be inconvenienced,