AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT 2007-2011 COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER NB : This document contains errata or corrigenda (see Annexes) REGIONAL DEPARTMENT NORTH I (ORNA) JANUARY 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT.......................................................................................................2 2.1 Political Context.......................................................................................................2 2.2 Macroeconomic and Structural Context Issues........................................................2 2.3 Sectoral Context Issues............................................................................................6 2.4 Priority Cross-cutting Issues....................................................................................9 2.5 Poverty and Social Context Issues.........................................................................14 2.6 Medium Term Economic Outlook and External Environment Challenges..............................................................................................................17 2.7 Private Sector Business Climate and Issues...........................................................18 III. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENDA AND MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS......................................................................................................................19 3.1 Key Elements of the Government’s Development Agenda...................................19 3.2 Assessment of Implementation Progress of the Agenda........................................21 3.3 The Partnership Framework...................................................................................22 3.4 Challenges and Risks .............................................................................................24 IV. BANK GROUP COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY ..............................................25 4.1 Portfolio Management and Lessons from Previous CSP.......................................25 4.2 Assessment of Previous Strategy...........................................................................26 4.3 CSP Results Framework ........................................................................................27 4.4 CSP Pillars or Areas of Focus................................................................................27 4.5 Bank Group Assistance: Lending & Non-Lending Scenarios, Triggers and Resource Implications.....................................................................................31 4.6 Partnership and Harmonisation..............................................................................34 V. RESULTS-BASED MONITORING AND EVALUATION ............................................35 5.1 Monitoring of CSP Outcomes and Bank Group Performance...............................35 5.2 Managing Risks....................................................................................................35 5.3 Country Dialogue Issues........................................................................................35 VI. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION ..............................................................36 6.1 Conclusions............................................................................................................36 6.2 Recommendation ...................................................................................................36 ANNEXES 1. Map of Egypt 2 Bank Group Operations 3. Bank Group Strategic Framework Matrix 4. Comparative Socio-economic Indicators 5. Macroeconomic Indicators 6. National Accounts (Current prices) 7. National Accounts (Constant prices) 8 Public Finance 9. Monetary Survey 10. Balance of Payments 11. Progress towards Millennium Development Goals Boxes Box 1 : Key Features Box 2 : Key goals expected and outcomes of the Government’s medium-term Development Agenda Box 3 : Donor activities in Egypt at a glance Box 4 : Results of the 2000-2002 CSP Box 5 : Expected Outcomes of 2007 – 2011 CSP Box 6 : Consultative process for the Bank’s Strategy Tables Table 4.1 : Performance Benchmarks Figures Figure 1 : Real GDP, inflation and broad money growth Figure 2 : Sources of Growth Figure 3 : Fiscal balance, current account balance and exchange rate and net international reserves Figure 4 : Selected External sector indicators Figure 5 : Sales of companies/Assets 2000/01 – 2005/06 Figure 6 : Bank Group Operations in Egypt by sector, 1974 – 2006 Figure 7 : Illustrative Results Framework Figure 8 : 2005 CPIA Ratings i ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADB : African Development Bank ADF : African Development Fund AIDS : Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome ANSDK : Alexandria National Iron & Steel Company APPR : Annual Portfolio Performance Report BOT : Build-Operate-Transfer BOOT : Build-Own-Operate-Transfer CAPMAS : Central Authority for Public Mobilisation and Statistics CBE : Central Bank of Egypt CIDA : Canadian International Development Agency CMA : Capital Market Authority COMESA : Common Market for East and Southern Africa CSP : Country Strategy Paper DAG : Development Assistance Group DANIDA : Danish International Development Agency DECODE : Development Cooperation Database for Egypt DRC : Democratic Republic of the Congo EBB : Egyptian British Bank EEAA : Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency EEHC : Egyptian Electricity Holding Corporation EGFO : Egypt Field Office (of the African Development Bank) EGP : Egyptian pound EPZs : Export Processing Zones ERSAP : Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Programme ESE : Egyptian Stock Exchange ESW : Economic and Sector Work EU : European Union FATF : Financial Action Task Force FDI : Foreign Direct Investment FGM : Female Genital Mutilation FHF : Family Health Fund FTA : Free Trade Agreement GAFI : General Authority for Investment GALAE : General Authority for Literacy and Adult Education GASC : General Authority for Supply of Commodities GDI : Gender Related Development Index GDP : Gross Domestic Product GOE : Government of Egypt GWh : Gigawatt hour HIES : Household Income and Expenditure Survey HIO : Health Insurance Organisation HIV : Human Imnuno Virus HSBC : Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation HSRP : Health Sector Reform Project IFAD : International Fund for Agricultural Development ILO : International Labour Organisation IMF : International Monetary Fund IMP : Industry Modernisation Program ii IPO : Initial Public Offering IPR : Intellectual Property Rights IT : Information Technology JBIC : Japan Bank for International Co-operation KFW : KfW Development Bank (German) Kwh : Kilowatt hour LOCs : Lines of Credit MENA : Middle East and North Africa MDGs : Millennium Development Goals MIC : Ministry of International Cooperation MICs : Middle Income Countries MOFT : Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade MOHP : Ministry of Health and Population Services MSEA : Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs MW : Megawatts NBE : National Bank of Egypt NBI : Nile Basin Initiative NCCM : National Council for Children and Motherhood NCW : National Council for Women NEAP : National Environment Action Plan NEPAD : New Partnership for Africa’s Development NIB National Investment Bank NGO : Non-Governmental Organization NSGB : National Societé Generale Bank NTP : National Tuberculosis Country Program ODA : Official Development Assistance OECD : Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development ONCB : Country Operations Department, North, East and South Region OPEV : Operations and Evaluation Department PAFTA : Pan Arab Free Trade Agreement PBDAC : Principal Bank for Development and Agricultural Credit PE : Public Enterprise PHC : Primary Health Care PIU : Project Implementation Unit PLWAs : People Living With HIV/AIDS QIZ : Qualified Industrial Zone SMEs : Small and Medium Scale Enterprises SIS : Social Insurance System SIF : Social Insurance Fund TAF : Technical Assistance Fund UA : Unit of Account (Bank’s unit of account is equivalent to the SDR) UNDP : United Nations Development Programme UNFPA : United Nations Fund for Population UNICEF : United Nations Children's Fund UPS : Unified Power System USAID : United States Agency for International Development US$ : United States dollars WHO : World Health Organization WTO : World Trade Organization iii EXCHANGE RATES (December 2006) US$ 1 = EGP 5.6998 UA 1 = US$ 1.50440 UA 1 = EGP 8.47427 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Introduction This Country Strategy Paper (CSP) for Egypt covers the period 2007-2011. The design of the assistance strategy is underpinned by the country’s vision 2022 and the fifth Five-Year Plan (2002-2007) and the Ten-point Action Plan, whose objectives are to promote private sector-led growth, modernize the Egyptian economy and integrate it into the global economy. Given that the CSP period extends beyond the fifth Five-Year Plan, the short- to medium-term business plan would cover the period 2007-2008, corresponding to the end of the fifth Five-Year Plan period. The business plan will be updated thereafter to take into consideration priorities under the next five-year plan. 2. Recent Economic Developments Egypt is an economically diversified middle-income country with a private sector share of GDP estimated at 61.5% in 2005/06. During the period 2001/02-2005/06, the real GDP growth rate averaged 4.4% per annum. This rate is far below the 6% real GDP growth required for the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Money supply