Integrating Risk Assessment and Management and Disaster Mitigation in Tourism Development Planning in Jamaica* Bevon Morrison Call Associates Consultancy Limited, Kingston, Jamaica INTRODUCTION Natural hazards have posed significant risks to Jamaica and other Caribbean islands. During the period 1983-89, major natural disasters in the Caribbean have resulted in loss of life, disrupted the lives of 1,845,000 people, and caused more than US$2,000 million in property damage.' The distribution of geological and hydrologic hazards (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and landslides) in the Caribbean are as a result of its characteristic "on-shore and off-shore geologic-tectonic-geophysical framework, which is common to many of the island nations by virtue of their geographic location within the plate boundary zones of the Caribbean Plate."2 Global warming and sea-level rise, El Nino and La Nina are changing weather patterns in the world and increasing the risk of natural hazards in the region. Jamaica and the other islands of the Caribbean are also vulnerable to natural disasters because they can be affected over their entire area, and major infrastructure and economic activities may be crippled by a single event. Disasters often create irreversible damage to the natural resource base, and scarce resources earmarked for development projects have to be diverted to relief and reconstruction, setting back economic growth. Land- slides and accelerated erosion caused by tropical storms and hurricanes re- duce agricultural productivity and destroy marine resources. Tourism facili- *This article draws upon a report prepared for the International Ocean Insti- tute. The research reflected in this article would not be possible without the assis- tance of those persons interviewed as part of this study. They agreed to meet with us to share their insights and experiences. We are grateful for their time, suggestions and frank opinions. Special thanks must also be given to Mr. Sean Henry and Mr. Agostino Pinnock for their research assistance during the original project. 1. R. Ahmad, ed., Natural Hazards in the Caribbean, Special Issue No. 12. The Journal of the Geological Society of Jamaica, (Mona, Jamaica: Geological Society of Jamaica, 1992). 108 pp. 2. Ibid. ties are normally sited in hazard-prone, low-lying areas on the coast, which makes them vulnerable to hurricanes, storm surges and wave action. Two hurricanes hit Jamaica in the 1980s. In 1980, Hurricane Allen passed approximately 30 miles north of the island causing coastal damage through storm surge and wave action. Many resorts suffered significant prop- erty damage, some of which could have been avoided if risk mitigation mea- sures were in place. In 1988, Hurricane Gilbert wreaked havoc, causing dam- age to infrastructure and halting various economic activities. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) estimated the direct impact of Hurricane Gilbert on Jamaica. The losses were estimated at approximately US$956 million: nearly 50 percent from losses from agriculture, tourism and industry; 30 percent from housing, health, and education infrastructure and 20 percent from economic infrastructure. Economic projections for 1988 were adjusted dramatically, based on expected losses in export earnings of US$130 million and lost tourism earnings of more than US$100 million. Instead of a growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 5 percent, a decline of 2 percent was projected. Other changes induced by the disaster were expected increases in inflation (30 percent), government public expenditures (US$200 million), and public sector deficit (from 2.8 to 10.6 percent of GDP). The underwriting losses suffered by reinsurers in the aftermath of the recent hurricanes in the region have reduced the availability and increased the cost of reinsurance. This in turn has led to a defensive reaction on the part of insurance companies and agents in the region, who are advising their clients that hurricane coverage will not be as readily available as before, and that, when available, costs will be higher, and property owners will have to bear a larger share of the risk. As a consequence, property insurance, the traditional mechanism for reducing economic risk from catastrophic events, may no longer be as avail- able or affordable as in the past. This development is forcing property own- ers and developers to seriously look at other mechanisms to minimize the consequences of natural disasters. The time has come to practice disaster loss reduction in a systematic way, as an integral part of ongoing develop- ment planning and investment. Therefore, risk analysis must become a criti- cal part of the development process. There are other risks that the tourism industry face, however, particu- larly in developing countries-social risks such as crime, drug peddling, visi- tor harassment and squatting-which affect the profitability and viability of the industry. These risks are not insurable and can affect the long-term sustainability of the tourism industry. Social risks, such as squatting, can re- sult in deforestation, soil erosion, pollution of coastal water resources, and resultant damage to coral reefs, mangroves, and other marine resources. Damage to these natural protective systems increases the risks of landslides, flooding, wave action and storm surges. Therefore, it is important that risk analysis and management techniques be applied to these social risks. Figure .