Sunny Side Up Characterizing the US Military’s Approach to Solar Energy Policy Varun Sivaram CISAC Honors Thesis Advised by Professor Michael May and Professor Martha Crenshaw May 15, 2011 Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................... 2 The Puzzle ............................................................................................................................. 2 Background ........................................................................................................................... 4 Solar Power ....................................................................................................................... 4 Federal Policy ................................................................................................................... 6 DoD Renewables Initiatives .............................................................................................. 8 Looking Forward ................................................................................................................. 10 Chapter 2: Theoretical Frameworks for Real Policymaking ........................................... 12 Punctuated Equilibrium ....................................................................................................... 14 Bounded Rationality and Incrementalism ........................................................................... 15 Multiple Streams ................................................................................................................. 20 Renewable Energy Policymaking ....................................................................................... 23 Interaction of Politics and Bureaucracy .............................................................................. 24 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 27 Hypotheses .......................................................................................................................... 30 Question 1 ........................................................................................................................ 30 Question 2 ........................................................................................................................ 30 Question 3 ........................................................................................................................ 30 Chapter 3: The DoD’s Solar Window ................................................................................. 31 Stages Model ....................................................................................................................... 32 Punctuated Equilibrium Approach ...................................................................................... 34 Multiple Streams Approach ................................................................................................ 34 Problems Stream.............................................................................................................. 35 Policies Stream ................................................................................................................ 38 Politics Stream and the Policy Window .......................................................................... 40 Chapter 4: The Air Force’s Implementation of Solar Power ........................................... 47 Background – Air Force Energy Policy .............................................................................. 50 Nellis Air Force Base .......................................................................................................... 55 Observations: Air Force solar installations ......................................................................... 62 Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 68 Chapter 5: DoD Policy Revision and Renewable Microgrids ........................................... 72 SPIDERS ............................................................................................................................. 73 Background ...................................................................................................................... 74 Cost .................................................................................................................................. 75 Motivation ........................................................................................................................ 77 Cyber Terror Threat ........................................................................................................ 79 Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 80 Economic Prospects for a Renewable Microgrid ................................................................ 83 Implications for SPIDERS Transferability ......................................................................... 88 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 90 Chapter 6: Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 92 Theoretical Implications ...................................................................................................... 94 Policy Recommendations .................................................................................................... 96 Works Cited ......................................................................................................................... 101 Table of Figures Table 1-1 – Levelized Cost of Electricity by Source ............................................................... 5 Table 2-1: Various Models of Policymaking ......................................................................... 29 Figure 3-1: Timeline of Events Relevant to DoD Solar Energy Policy ................................. 46 Table 4-1: DoD Renewable Energy Goals ............................................................................ 51 Table 4-2: Air Force Energy System Procurement Options .................................................. 53 Table 4-3: Major Air Force Solar Installations ...................................................................... 63 Table 5-1: Cost Estimates for SPIDERS Project ................................................................... 76 List of Acronyms AAF – Auxiliary Airfield ACC/A7 – Air Combat Command A7, Mission Support Energy Office AFB – Air Force Base AFCESA – Air Force Civil Engineering Support Agency DoD – Department of Defense ECIP – Energy Conservation Investment Project EO – Executive Order EPA – 2005 Energy Policy Act ESPC – Energy Savings Performance Contract GAO – Government Accountability Office IEEE – Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers LCOE – Levelized Cost of Electricity NDAA – National Defense Authorization Act PPA – Power Purchasing Agreement PPBS – Planning–Programming–Budgeting System QDR – Quadrennial Defense Review RDT&E – Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation REC – Renewable Energy Certificate RPS – Renewable Portfolio Standard SPIDERS – Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security TVA – Tennessee Valley Authority VFT – Value Focused Thinking Sivaram 1 Acknowledgements My passion for solar power was inspired by my father, Siva, who introduced me to the industry in 2007 and closely supervised this thesis—I hope to follow in his footsteps one day and sincerely hope the views contained within do not adversely affect Twin Creeks Technologies. I also owe profuse gratitude to my thesis advisors, Professors May and Crenshaw. Professor May helped me approach the technical aspects of this subject with rigor; Professor Crenshaw’s extensive advice has guided me on everything from broad theoretical issues to precise citation format. Professor Chip Blacker’s pointed questioning enabled me to pin down my research question and methodology, and Michael Sulmeyer’s astute insights have led me to many valuable discoveries. I am especially indebted to my fellow CISAC Honors class, especially Adam Creasman, to whom I have presented every iteration of my thesis for feedback and revision and Akhil Iyer, who selflessly provided me with contacts. Lieutenant Colonel Leif Eckholm and Commander David Slayton, thank you for your illuminating feedback on my progress. From Professor Michael Tomz I learned how to design a social scientific research paper, and from Professor Bruce Clemens I studied the intricacies of solar power and solid state physics. Finally, to the friends and family who have put up with me as I irritably researched and wrote this paper—my roommate Cyrus Navabi, Yash, Chris, Ayna, Pilar, Steph, Diana, Megan, Alisha, Saroya, my erudite and enthusiastic sisters Uttara and Saya, my ever proud grandparents, my somnolent Saint Bernard Gary, and my supportive, resourceful, and wonderful mother, Ranjana—thank you so much. Sivaram 1 Abstract Since 2007, the Department of Defense (DoD) has invested considerable resources and research into deploying solar panels to power its domestic military bases. This thesis