The future of the Air Forces and air defence units of Poland’s Armed Forces ISBN 978-83-61663-05-8 The future of the Air Forces and air defence units of Poland’s Armed Forces Pulaski for Defence of Poland Warsaw 2016 Authors: Rafał Ciastoń, Col. (Ret.) Jerzy Gruszczyński, Rafał Lipka, Col. (Ret.) dr hab. Adam Radomyski, Tomasz Smura Edition: Tomasz Smura, Rafał Lipka Consultations: Col. (Ret.) Krystian Zięć Proofreading: Reuben F. Johnson Desktop Publishing: Kamil Wiśniewski The future of the Air Forces and air defence units of Poland’s Armed Forces Copyright © Casimir Pulaski Foundation ISBN 978-83-61663-05-8 Publisher: Casimir Pulaski Foundation ul. Oleandrów 6, 00-629 Warsaw, Poland www.pulaski.pl Table of content Introduction 7 Chapter I 8 1. Security Environment of the Republic of Poland 8 Challenges faced by the Air Defence 2. Threat scenarios and missions 13 System of Poland’s Armed Forces of Air Force and Air Defense Rafał Ciastoń, Rafał Lipka, 2.1 An Armed attack on the territory of Poland and 13 Col. (Ret.) dr hab. Adam Radomyski, Tomasz Smura collective defense measures within the Article 5 context 2.2 Low-intensity conflict, including actions 26 below the threshold of war 2.3 Airspace infringement and the Renegade 30 procedure 2.4 Protection of critical 35 infrastructure and airspace while facing the threat of aviation terrorism 2.5 Out-of-area operations 43 alongside Poland’s allies Chapter II 47 1. Main challenges for the 47 development of air force capabilities in the 21st century What are the development options 2. Technical modernisation of Air Force aviation 49 of the Polish Air Force capabilities? Col. (Ret.) Jerzy Gruszczyński Chapter III 62 1. Modernisation of Poland’s anti-missile air 62 defence system What are the development options 2. Development of Poland’s 67 of air defence capabilitiesof the anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence system after 2020 Polish Armed Forces? Col. (Ret.) dr hab. Adam Radomyski Conclusions and 75 recommendations 4 The future of the Air Forces and air defence units of Poland’s Armed Forces President Lech Wałęsa, President Aleksander Kwaśniewski, President Valdas Adamkus, Bernard Kouchner, and Richard Lugar. One of the leading projects in the field of international security is the annual Warsaw Security Forum, organized in partnership with the Polish and foreign organizations and institutions, which is bringing together policymakers from European Union and NATO countries to discuss major security challenges. The Casimir Pulaski Foundation has a partnership status with the Council of Europe. About Foundation The Casimir Pulaski Foundation is an independent, non-partisan think-tank specializing in foreign policy and international Zbigniew Pisarski security. The Pulaski Foundation provides analyses that describe President of the Board Casimir Pulaski Foundation and explain international developments, identify trends in [email protected] / Twitter: @Pisarski international environment, and contain possible recommendations www.pulaski.pl and solutions for government decision makers and private sector managers to implement. The Foundation concentrates its research on two subjects: transatlantic relations and Russia and the post-Soviet sphere. It focuses primarily on security, both in traditional and non-military dimensions, as well as political changes and economic trends that may have consequences for Poland and the European Union. The Casimir Pulaski Foundation is composed of over 40 experts from various fields. It publishes the Pulaski Policy Papers, the Pulaski Report, and the Pulaski Commentaries. The Foundation also publishes “Informator Pułaskiego,” a summary of upcoming conferences and seminars on international policy. The Foundation experts cooperate with media on a regular basis. Once a year, the Casimir Pulaski Foundation gives the Knight of Freedom Award to an outstanding person who has promoted the values represented by General Casimir Pulaski: freedom, justice, and democracy. Prizewinners include: Professor Władysław Bartoszewski, Professor Norman Davies, Alaksandar Milinkiewicz, © Casimir Pulaski Foundation | 2016 5 6 The future of the Air Forces and air defence units of Poland’s Armed Forces Introduction Poland’s security environment has continued to deteriorate as the air is a precondition for any military defence of late. Only a few years ago, it was hardly imaginable any operation to succeed, especially at this stage of military conflict would emerge in Europe. The recent operations development of military technologies. Moreover, of the Russian Federation – the illegal annexation of Crimea effective and modern aviation as well as antimissile and and the Russian aggression in the east of Ukraine – have antiaircraft defence would definitely reinforce Poland’s undermined the confidence in the inviolability of borders position as a committed ally within NATO. throughout Europe. Despite being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), one of the most This report consists of 3 chapters. The first chapter powerful political and military alliances currently existing, it is analyses trends in Poland’s security environment to still imperative that Poland exercise sound judgement about its security issues. The condition and future development of identify major tasks to be completed in the area of Air Poland’s Armed Forces are of central interest in this context. Forces and air defence systems in the next 20 - 25 years. In 2012, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland Chapters 2 and 3 outline a trend analysis in the Development Program for 2013-2022, and the Armed Forces development of military aviation as well as antimissile Technical Modernization Program for 2013-2022 were and antiaircraft defence systems, and discuss the adopted, outlining key weapon systems that are essential in existing options for the capacities development of order to maintain and develop the capacities of the Polish Poland’s Armed Forces in terms of offensive and Army. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland Development defensive means of air defence. The last section seeks Program coincides with NATO’s defence planning cycles. It to answer questions about the optimum development covers a period of 10 years, and the subsequent editions are options of the air defence system, taking account of the released every 4 years. Accordingly, the next program will cover future tasks of Air Forces and air defence units. the period 2017 - 2026, and the Armed Forces Technical Modernization Program for 2017 - 2026 will be adopted in This Report does not seek to resolve the dilemma over parallel. The Operational Capacity Requirements Review is which and how many weapon systems are essentially currently underway, and the outcomes are to be taken into account in the new plan. Therefore, the time is right to give necessary since, to answer this question, in-depth consideration to and reflect on the direction that the Polish technical, economic, and political analyses would have Armed Forces should follow in the future. to be conducted for each type of the weapon systems in question. This Report delineates more general This report takes a closer look at Poland’s air defence development directions for Poland’s air defence system, system, one of the cornerstones of state defence and which will hopefully contribute to better and more security in general. To gain and maintain dominance in effective planning in this area. © Casimir Pulaski Foundation | 2016 7 Chapter I Challenges faced by the Air Defence System of Poland’s Armed Forces 1. Security Environment Treaty Organization, the world’s strongest military and political alliance of today. Since then, of the Republic of Poland Poland’s territorial integrity and political The issues of security may be viewed from both a independence have been safeguarded under Article 5 of negative (absence of threats) and a positive the North Atlantic Treaty, reading: “The Parties agree that (confidence in security) point of view. The notion of an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or security may be perceived as the absence of threats North America shall be considered an attack against them or defence against factors posing a potential threat, all and [...] will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by or the feeling of confidence that either no threats are taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other likely to emerge in the future, or – if any threats should Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the arise – they can effectively be countered. Security may use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of be examined in relation to both individuals and highly the North Atlantic area3“. In May 2004, Poland joined the organized communities, such as the contemporary European Union, which also contributed to the states. Another important aspect is that security as such strengthening of its security4. should never be taken for granted – it requires proactive measures aimed at eliminating and safeguarding Apart from activities in the international arena, effective protection against threats1. Poland has taken measures to reinforce its own defence capacity. The main goal was to create a smaller, yet fully The threats we face may be either external or internal, professional, well-trained and well-equipped army and security per se should be seen as dependent on and capable of defending Poland’s territory and joining related to the surrounding environment. In this context, missions of allies elsewhere in the world. Reforms in we may refer to the security environment of individuals this area have only been implemented partially. Poland’s or organizations. In this respect, Poland’s security may army has become fully professional. It was reduced to be threatened by both internal events (social unrest, etc.) 120 thousand soldiers (including 20 thousand soldiers of and international conditions (military aggression of the Reserve National Forces), and two strategic another state). In order to identify the potential threats commands (General Command and Joined Armed Forces for Poland’s security and to determine means by which Operational Command).