TM smarterinsight Grand National Tips 17th March, 2016 Confidential. Copyright © 2016. All rights reserved . 1 | P a g e 2016 Grand National Tips Spring got off to a great start with an early Easter and brighter evenings and it also means it’s time for QED’s Grand National tips! For those of you in a hurry, my tips are at the end of this article. Disclaimer - I have not enjoyed great Grand National success over the years, but that won't stop me from sharing my tips and tactics with you. But, before we get into the euphoria of all that, you would be disappointed if I did not throw in a few ‘risk warnings’: Risk warnings Tipping horses is not an activity regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Betting on a horse is a gamble not an investment. A bit like high tech stocks on P/E ratios of 200 plus in 2000. I have no qualifications or expertise in horse racing and my past performance is no indication of future performance (which is a good thing?). What goes up might come down and not get up again. Especially over Becher’s Brook. Only bet for fun and with an amount you would be happy to lose. If you want decent long term returns send your money to QED not Ladbrokes. Your relationship might be at risk if you don’t place your partner’s (or boss’!) winning bet. A word on Efficient Markets … In an efficient market the price contains all the known information. If new information arrives it can change the price. Remember last year when Volkswagen’s share dropped by 20% when they admitted to manipulating their diesel emissions figures? The betting market is not efficient and especially at the Grand National. Millions have their one bet of the year and pick a horse based on its name, its colour, the jockey’s shirt, its number or whatever comes out of the office jackpot. None of these factors have anything to do with a winning horse but this asymmetry of information is why the bookies nearly always clean up on Grand National day. Confidential. Copyright © 2016. All rights reserved . 2 | P a g e And a word on mathematics … Whilst knowing nothing about the horses I do know sums and QED clients and friends can improve their odds of winning by: Betting ‘each-way’ when the odds on your horse are greater than 6/1. An each way bet is two bets. One to win and one if the horse is placed. So £10 e/w costs you £20. If your horse wins your £10-win bet pays out at 6/1. If your horse places (in most races in the first 3 – but see the next tip below) your £10 place bet pays out at ¼ of the odds i.e. 1.5/1. As the winning horse is also placed, you collect on both bets. You also get your stake back on a win bet. So a £10 e/w bet on a winning horse at 6/1 pays out - £10 x 6 + £10 (stake) + £10 x 1.5 + £10 (stake). A win of £95. But even if your horse is placed you still collected the second part of the sum i.e. £25. So you are in profit. Each way betting becomes even more attractive at higher odds. Because of the large field, the Grand National offers more horses at attractive odds than any other horse race. Using a bookie that pays out down to five places (or even six!) to give you the best chances of a pay-out. Most high street bookies should pay down to four places but many internet bookies pay down to five places. These were the odds for the top places in the 2015 Grand National: 25/1 25/1 40/1 20/1 6/1 … and the sixth place was 25/1 Most of these are great each-way bets. Odds of 25/1 will pay out £332.50 for a win or £72.50 for a place on an £10 e/w bet costing £20. Checking you’re getting the best odds for your chosen horse. Odds will vary between bookies so use oddschecker.com which is effectively a “compare the market” site to show the odds across many bookies alongside the number of places in an each-way bet. Taking advantage of new customer deals; if you’re given a “free bet” you have nothing to lose so can afford to take more risk with longer odds or an on the nose (win only) bet. If you win, take your money out of the account right away and treat yourself! Don’t leave it for the bookie to use! My tactic is not necessarily to guess the winner (Many Clouds is the favourite at 7/1 so perhaps a good win-only bet) but to pick a selection of contenders to place in the top five Confidential. Copyright © 2016. All rights reserved . 3 | P a g e though you never know who will cross the line first and pay out twice on an each-way bet. And so, for my first year, my top five Grand National Tips for 2016 are: Rule the World 50/1 Morning Assembly 25/1 Gallant Oscar 20/1 Saint Are 16/1 Holywell 16/1 Remember to use a bookie that will pay down to five or six places. Some will offer better prices but only pay down to four places. Good luck! So there we have it. Let’s hope that one or more of these appear in the top five. I should remind you that the odds are correct at the time of going to press and to expect the prices to change. Best of luck if you have a bet on Saturday; please let me know how you get on. Best wishes, Darren Correspondence and registered address: 30 Charlton Road, Weston-s-Mare BS23 4HQ. T: 0800 6122 835 E: [email protected] W: www.qedwm.com Confidential. Copyright © 2016. All rights reserved . 4 | P a g e .