wiiw Research Reports | 314 special issue on economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe Peter Havlik, Leon Podkaminer, Vladimir Gligorov et al. Accelerating GDP Growth, Improved Prospects for European Integration March 2005 Peter Havlik, Leon Podkaminer, Vladimir Gligorov et al. Accelerating GDP Growth, Improved Prospects for European Integration Contents Executive summary ...................................................................................................................................i Figure I Real per capita GDP in Central, East and Southeast European countries. 1995-2015, European Union (25) average = 100......................................................................................iii Table I Overview developments 2003-2004 and outlook 2005-2006 ...............................................iv Table II Central and East European new EU member states (NMS-8): an overview of economic fundamentals, 2004....................................................................... v Table III Southeast Europe: an overview of economic fundamentals, 2004.......................................vi Part A: The new EU member states The new EU member states: faster GDP growth, booming foreign trade........................ 1 External conditions: somewhat better in 2004, slightly worse in 2005 and 2006.................................. 1 GDP growth in 2004 driven mainly by domestic demand...................................................................... 2 Industry gathers strength, growth accelerates again .............................................................................7 Labour market situation remains precarious ........................................................................................ 10 Foreign trade expands, especially outside the ‘old’ EU ....................................................................... 12 Fiscal policies becoming more restrictive ............................................................................................. 16 Inflation, monetary policy and the exchange rates............................................................................... 19 FDI flows recover, profit repatriation increases ................................................................................... 24 Outlook: robust GDP growth, declining inflation, flat employment....................................................... 27 Country reports Czech Republic: revised data present a picture of sound development ...................................30 Hungary: healthy growth, sick budget and current account .......................................................33 Poland: the return of the strong zloty ..........................................................................................36 Slovakia: good news, especially for the business community ...................................................39 Slovenia: smooth EU entry..........................................................................................................43 Estonia: amid export boom, current account problems remain .................................................46 Latvia: economic dynamism with signs of overheating ..............................................................48 Lithuania: strong growth with modest inflationary pressures .....................................................50 Part B: EU candidate countries and countries aspiring to EU membership Southeast Europe: crucial years ahead.................................................................................... 54 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 54 Growth and macroeconomic stability.................................................................................................... 54 Employment and productivity................................................................................................................ 59 Foreign trade and current account........................................................................................................ 60 Fiscal adjustment................................................................................................................................... 64 Low monetization and the exchange rate............................................................................................. 65 Policy mix and growth ........................................................................................................................... 68 Investments and financial integration ................................................................................................... 71 EU integration ........................................................................................................................................ 73 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 73 Country reports Bulgaria: a year of solid growth ...................................................................................................74 Romania: can new government continue expansionist policy? .................................................77 Croatia: stubborn external imbalances .......................................................................................80 Macedonia: from stability to growth.............................................................................................83 Serbia and Montenegro: growing apart ......................................................................................85 Bosnia and Herzegovina: politics still hamper economic development.....................................88 Albania: SAA 2005? EU 2014?...................................................................................................91 Turkey: soft landing appreciated .................................................................................................94 Part C: Russia, Belarus and Ukraine; China Country reports Russian Federation: GDP growth slows down, reform stalemate .............................................98 Belarus: private consumption drives growth acceleration........................................................101 Ukraine: in a new political setting ..............................................................................................104 China: maintaining stable and fast economic development.....................................................107 Appendix: Selected indicators of competitiveness .........................................................................113 Tables and Figures Part A Table 1 Gross domestic product real change in % against preceding year............................. 2 Table 2 Gross fixed capital formation real change in % against preceding year ..................... 3 Table 3 Contributions (in percentage points) to the GDP growth rates in NMS and the eurozone............................................................................................ 4 Table 4 Gross industrial production real change in % against preceding year........................ 7 Table 5 Labour productivity in industry change in % against preceding year.......................... 8 Table 6 Unemployment, LFS definition, annual averages ..................................................... 11 Table 7 Foreign trade of the new EU member states, EUR million (based on customs statistics) .................................................................................... 13 Table 8 Foreign trade of new EU member states with the EU-25, EUR million (based on customs statistics) .................................................................................... 14 Table 9 Intra-NMS foreign trade (trade among the new EU member states), EUR million (based on customs statistics) .................................................................................... 16 Table 10 General government budget balance in % of GDP................................................... 17 Table 11a Consumer price inflation change in % against preceding year ................................. 19 Table 11b Producer prices in industry change in % against preceding year ............................. 19 Table 12 Foreign financial position EUR billion, end of period................................................. 22 Table 13a Foreign direct investment inflow based on the balance of payments, EUR million .. 25 Table 13b Foreign direct investment inward stock based on international investment position (IIP), EUR million....................................................................... 25 Figure 1 NMS-5: Gross industrial production, 2002-2004 annual growth, cumulated ............. 8 Figure 2 NMS-5: Labour productivity in industry, 2002-2004 3-month moving average, year-on-year, in % ....................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3 NMS-5: Unit labour costs in industry, 2002-2004 EUR-adjusted, year-on-year, growth in %.................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 4 GDP, employment and productivity in NMS-8 1995 = 100 ....................................... 11 Figure 5 Foreign trade of selected new EU member states, 2003 and 2004, EUR billion...... 15 Figure 6a NMS-5: Change in consumer prices, 2002-2004 in %, month-on-month ................. 21 Figure 6b NMS-5: Change in producer prices,