SONS AND LOVERS Political Stability in China and Europe before the Great Divergence Yuhua Wang∗ Harvard University [email protected] October 25, 2018 Abstract ULERS’ long duration in the medieval period had contributed to the rise of Europe. But Rwhat explained premodern ruler duration? While the extant answers focus on formal, political institutions, I examine the role of marriage and inheritance norms in affecting ruler survival. Using a novel dataset of over 1,000 monarchs in China and Europe from 1000 to 1800 CE, I obtain two findings that have been overlooked by the existing literature. First, contrary to the view that European rulers had exceptional stability, I find that Chinese monar- chs stayed in power longer than their European counterparts. Second, I find a strong effect of family practices on ruler survival. More liberal marriage and inheritance norms provided Chi- nese emperors with sustained availability of male heirs, which reduced palace coups. But the Church’s control of royal marriage and inheritance in Europe decreased the number of male heirs, which increased the probability of a deposition. (Word Count: 8,942) ∗Assistant Professor, Department of Government, Harvard University ([email protected]). I want to thank Lisa Blaydes, Eric Chaney, Andrej Kokkonen and Anders Sundell for sharing their data. Scott Abram- son, Bob Bates, Yue Hou, Andrej Kokkonen, Ora John Reuter, Rory Truex, Yiqing Xu, panel participants at APSA 2017, SPSA 2017, and seminar participants at the University of Michigan, National Taiwan University, Tsinghua Uni- versity, MIT, and New York University have provided helpful comments. Zixuan Xiao, Jialu Li, and Shiqi Ma have provided excellent research assistance. All errors remain my own. 1 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3058065 Prominent literature has established a strong association between ruler duration in the me- Adieval period and the rise of Europe (Strayer 1970, 19; Blaydes and Chaney 2013, 19-22; Acharya and Lee 2016, 20-22; Cox and Weingast 2018, 287-290). This is consistent with Olson’s (2000) famous argument that rulers who are “stationary bandits” have a long time horizon to focus on public goods provision and pro-growth economic policies. Yet if premodern ruler duration was so critical to the rise of the modern world, what then explained premodern ruler duration? Existing answers focus on formal institutions, especially feudalism and representative assem- blies, that were unique in medieval Europe. After the collapse of the Western Roman Empire, a set of fragmented Germanic kingdoms emerged, in which rulers had weak bargaining power vis- a-vis´ the local nobility (Stasavage 2016, 156-158). To solicit the noble’s financial and military assistance, the Carolingian rulers agreed to grant land in exchange for sworn services, which led to the emergence of feudalism (Anderson 1974, 29-39; Ertman 1997, 35-48). After the fall of the Carolingian Empire, European rulers’ bargaining power was further weakened when interstate conflicts became frequent and expensive (Tilly 1992, 67-91; Downing 1992, 18-38). To obtain new funds, sovereign rulers conceded (partial) political control, through political representation, to the elite (North and Weingast 1989, 817-824; Stasavage 2011, 25-69; Dincecco 2011, 26-27; Cox 2016, 19-36). Armed elites, represented in parliament, were able to extract a “soft contract” from their king or queen, which made them less likely to overthrow the monarch (Blaydes and Chaney 2013, 19-22). But political representation and elite consent were a unique European phenomena that was not witnessed in other parts of the world (Stasavage 2016, 146). This raises the scope condition question for this prominent literature, which can be addressed by including more cases outside Europe and examining institutions that were prevalent across the medieval world. In this article, I expand this distinguished line of research in two ways. First, I add imperial China to the comparison. In the early 19th century, China and Europe experienced a “great diver- gence” in economic development where Europe launched the Industrial Revolution while China 2 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3058065 lagged behind (Pomeranz 2000). If ruler duration facilitated economic development, We should expect Chinese rulers to have shorter durations than their European counterparts before the 19th century. Second, I examine an informal institution—marriage and inheritance norms—which ex- isted but varied across medieval polities, and its influence on ruler survival. I obtain two findings that have been overlooked by focusing only on Europe. First, contrary to the popular view that European rulers had exceptional stability, I find that Chinese monarchs stayed in power longer than their European counterparts for the most parts between 1000 and 1800 CE. Especially in the 18th century that was the dawn of the great divergence, Chinese rulers on average stayed in power 12 years longer than European rulers. Second, I find a strong effect of family practices on ruler survival, even controlling for formal political institutions. More liberal marriage norms and a more egalitarian inheritance rule provided Chinese emperors with sustained availability of male heirs, which prolonged hereditary succession and reduced palace coups. By contrast, the Church’s control of royal marriage and the disinheritance of illegitimate children in medieval Europe increased the costs of divorce and decreased the number of male heirs, which increased the probability of a deposition. I draw on a novel dataset of over 1,000 monarchs in Europe and China between 1000 and 1800 CE to draw these conclusions. I structure my empirical analysis around four types of evi- dence. First (Evidence I), I show graphically and statistically that Chinese monarchs, except during the Mongol Empire (1271–1368 CE), stayed in power longer than their European counterparts, and that there is an inverse relationship between ruler duration and the probability of being overthrown, which indicates that ruler duration is largely determined by the probability of being deposed. Sec- ond (Evidence II), examining the data on Chinese and European royal families, I present evidence that Chinese emperors had more wives and children than European monarchs. Thus Chinese em- perors were more likely than European monarchs to rely on hereditary succession. Third (Evidence III), applying survival analysis to a pooled dataset of Chinese and European monarchs, I estimate the effect of having at least one son on rulers’ risk of being deposed. The identifying assumption is 3 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3058065 that, conditional on having at least one child, whether having a son is random. I demonstrate that monarchs who had at least one son had a 50% lower hazard of being deposed compared with those who did not, holding everything else constant. I also provide evidence that a main mechanism is through appointing a son as the successor. Last (Evidence IV), using fine-grained data on the exit methods of Chinese monarchs, I examine a testable implication that when monarchs had a son as their heir apparent, they were less likely to be deposed by elites. My findings challenge a popular view that Europe has enjoyed exceptional ruler durability, and cast doubt on the belief that political stability contributed to the “European miracle” (Strayer 1970, 19; Blaydes and Chaney 2013, 19-22; Acharya and Lee 2016, 4-6). In addition to an influential, but Euro-centric,1 literature that emphasizes the stabilizing role of feudal and representative in- stitutions, I show that familial institutions were also important for the durability of monarchs in China and Europe. I also contribute to a recent literature on succession politics. Scholars have emphasized the “coup-proofing” functions of certain succession arrangements. As argued by Tullock(1987, 151- 174) and tested by Brownlee(2007) and Kokkonen and Sundell(2014), hereditary succession has advantages over other arrangements: appointing his or her own son as the successor provides the ruler with an heir who is young and loyal, who can wait to inherit power peacefully. The son also provides “a focal point for reducing uncertainty, achieving consensus, and forestalling a power vacuum” to help maintain the loyalty of the ruling elite (Brownlee 2007, 597). But hereditary succession creates another problem: not every ruler has a viable son. The lack of a male heir can create a succession crisis in many monarchies that have a gender bias.2 My findings, therefore, 1There are notable exceptions: Blaydes and Chaney(2013), Stasavage(2016), and Dincecco and Wang(2018) focus on non-European countries, such as the Islamic world and China. 2For example, certain polities of the former Carolingian Empire in Europe practiced “Salic law,” which prohibited inheritance through female lines of descent (Herlihy 1962, 90; Acharya and Lee 2016, 6). The Hundred Years War occurred partly because the rulers of England and France disagreed over whether Joan II of Navarre, half-sister of the deceased king, was the rightful heir (Sumption 2009, 291-292). In addition, the Church’s opposition to concubinage, divorce, and illegitimate children in Europe left many monarchs without eligible heirs (Goody 1983, 44). In most European states, which practiced primogeniture (the eldest living son inherited), the absence of a male heir inevitably entailed a succession crisis (Kokkonen and Sundell 2017). When Charles II of Spain died in 1700 CE, childless and heirless, this helped trigger the War of the Spanish Succession. 4 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3058065 show the importance of informal institutions (family practices) in sustaining formal institutions (succession rules) (Helmke and Levitsky 2004), joining a recent interest in examining informal sources of stability in autocracies (Abramson and Rivera 2016). Figure1 summarizes my overarching argument, and I use it to structure the rest of the article. In the following section, I describe the final outcome—ruler duration in China and Europe (Evidence I)—and use it to motivate the research.