THE FOREIGN POLICIES OF REVOLUTIONARY LEADERS: IDENTITY, EMOTION, AND CONFLICT INITIATION by PATRICK MARTIN VAN ORDEN A DISSERTATION Presented to the Department of Political Science and the Graduate School of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2018 DISSERTATION APPROVAL PAGE Student: Patrick Martin Van Orden Title: The Foreign Policies of Revolutionary Leaders: Identity, Emotion, and Conflict Initiation This dissertation has been accepted and approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy degree in the Department of Political Science by: Tuong Vu Chairperson Jane Cramer Core Member Lars Skalnes Core Member Angela Joya Institutional Representative and Janet Woodruff-Borden Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School Original approval signatures are on file with the University of Oregon Graduate School. Degree awarded September 2018 ii © 2018 Patrick Martin Van Orden This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (United States) License iii DISSERTATION ABSTRACT Patrick Martin Van Orden Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science September 2018 Title: The Foreign Policies of Revolutionary Leaders: Identity, Emotion, and Conflict Initiation This manuscript addresses an important empirical regularity: Why are revolutionary leaders more likely to initiate conflict? With the goal of explaining this regularity, I offer an identity-driven model of decision making that can explain why certain leaders are more likely to take risky gambles. Broadly, this manuscript provides a different model of decision making that emphasizes emotion and identity as key to explain decision making. I offer a plausibility probe of the identity-driven model with four in-depth case studies: The initiation of the Iran-Iraq War, the initiation of the Gulf War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the start of the Korean War. I use the congruence method and process tracing to test the plausibility probe. I find strong support in two cases—the initiation of the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War—and mixed support for the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Korean War. iv CURRICULUM VITAE NAME OF AUTHOR: Patrick Martin Van Orden GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE SCHOOLS ATTENDED: University of Oregon, Eugene University of California at Riverside, Riverside California University of Montana, Missoula DEGREES AWARDED: Doctor of Philosophy, Political Science, 2018, University of Oregon Master of Arts, Political Science, 2012, University of California at Riverside Bachelor of Arts, University of Montana, Missoula AREAS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: International Relations Comparative Politics PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Specialist, U.S. Army, 2007-2010 GRANTS, AWARDS, AND HONORS: v Graduate Teaching Fellowship, University of Oregon, 2012-17 Mitchell Summer Funding Award, University of Oregon, 2016 Mitchell Summer Funding Award, University of Oregon, 2015 vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Tuong Vu. I could not have asked for a better advisor. Professors Vu’s guidance, patience, and support was indispensable and I am extremely grateful. I would also like to thank my committee members. Professor Jane Cramer, Professor Lars Skalnes, and Professor Angela Joya, all read the manuscript and offered valuable critiques, suggestions, and guidance. The manuscript was much improved due to their direction and support. I would also like to thank my parents. My parents constantly stressed the importance and value of education and without their support, none of this would be possible. vii For my parents viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 II. THE LITERATURE, THEORY, AND METHODS .............................................. 20 The Literature......................................................................................................... 20 Systemic-level Explanations ............................................................................ 20 State-level Explanations................................................................................... 24 Individual-level Explanations .......................................................................... 29 Theory: What is missing? National Identity and Risky Decisions ........................ 31 A State’s NIC ................................................................................................. 34 From a NIC to Emotions to Behavior ............................................................ 38 NIC based Fear—the Solidarity Dimension .................................................. 38 NIC Pride—the Status Dimension ................................................................. 41 Hypothesis...................................................................................................... 42 Nested Identities............................................................................................. 43 Methods................................................................................................................. 45 The Establishment of the NIC........................................................................ 46 The Independent Variable: the NIC ............................................................... 46 ix Chapter Page The Dependent Variable ................................................................................ 46 Case Selection ............................................................................................... 49 A Note on Case Selection .............................................................................. 52 Congruence Testing and Process Tracing ...................................................... 53 Methodological Caveats................................................................................. 54 III. SADDAM HUSSEIN ............................................................................................ 59 Explanations for the Iran-Iraq War ........................................................................ 60 Explanations for the Gulf War ............................................................................... 66 Saddam’s NIC: Solidarity and Status .................................................................... 70 The Solidarity Dimension: “The Three Circles of Hostility” .................... 70 Americans: “Conspiring Bastards” ..................................................... 71 The Zionist Entity ................................................................................ 72 Iran: “The Yellow Storm” ................................................................. 75 The Status Dimension: “The Central Post of the Arab Nation” ............. 79 Case Study: The Iran- Iraq War ............................................................................. 80 Fear: “The Hidden power of the Shia” ................................................ 80 Pride: “We have to stick their face in the Mud” .................................. 84 x Chapter Page Case Study: The Gulf War ...................................................................................... 91 Fear: There is a conspiracy to weaken the Arab Nation ...................... 91 Pride before the fall .............................................................................. 100 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 110 IV. FIDEL CASTRO ................................................................................................... 112 Why Did Castro Accept the Weapons? ................................................................. 114 Did Castro have a Choice? ..................................................................................... 119 Castro’s NIC .......................................................................................................... 120 The Solidarity Dimension .......................................................................... 120 The Status Dimension ................................................................................ 124 Case Study: The Cuban Missile Crisis .................................................................. 126 The Pride Dimension ................................................................................. 126 The Fear Dimension ................................................................................. 139 Conclusion…………… ............................................................................. 143 V. KIM Il-SUNG ......................................................................................................... 145 Explanations for the Korean War .......................................................................... 145 Kim Il Sung’s NIC ................................................................................................. 148 xi Chapter Page The Solidarity Dimension .......................................................................... 148 The Status Dimension ................................................................................ 155 Case Study: The Korean War ................................................................................. 157 The Pride Dimension ................................................................................. 157 The Fear Dimension ................................................................................. 174 Conclusion…………… ............................................................................