Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program Volume 1-4 Northeast Florida Volume 1-4 Northeast Florida Region Technical Data Report CHAPTER II REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS Volume 1-4 Northeast Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program This page intentionally left blank. Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program Volume 1-4 Northeast Florida Table of Contents II. REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS ..................................................................... II-1 A. Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment .............................................................. II-1 B. Tropical Cyclones .................................................................................................... II-6 1. Coastal Storms /Hurricane Hazard Profile .......................................................... II-6 2. Hurricane Hazards........................................................................................... II-7 3. Storm Surge: The SLOSH Model ....................................................................... II-8 a. Hypothetical Storm Simulations ................................................................ II-8 b. The Grid for the Northeast Florida SLOSH Model ...................................... II-10 c. Storm Scenario Determinations .............................................................. II-10 d. Determining Storm Surge Height and Flooding Depth ............................... II-12 e. Variations to Consider ........................................................................... II-12 f. Storm Tide Atlas ................................................................................... II-13 g. Factors Influencing Model Accuracy ........................................................ II-14 4. Hurricane Wind Analysis ................................................................................ II-16 a. Wind Risk Assessment: Inland Wind Model.............................................. II-17 b. Wind Risk Assessment: Florida Building Code .......................................... II-21 c. Wind Risk Assessment: HAZUS ............................................................... II-25 5. Tornadoes .................................................................................................... II-26 7. Freshwater Flooding and the Inundation of Evacuation Routes.......................... II-28 8. History of Hurricanes in the Northeast Florida Region ....................................... II-29 a. The 2004 Hurricane Season ................................................................... II-31 b. The 2005 Hurricane Season ................................................................... II-32 c. The 2006, 2007 and 2008 Seasons ......................................................... II-34 d. The 2009 - 2012 Hurricane Season ......................................................... II-35 9. Probability of Future Hurricane Events ............................................................ II-37 a. Monthly Zones of Origin and Hurricane Tracks ......................................... II-38 b. NOAA Historical Analysis for the Region .................................................. II-41 C. Freshwater Flooding: The 100-Year Flood Plain ....................................................... II-46 1. Inland /Riverine Flooding Profile ......................................................................... II-46 2. Probability of Flooding: FIRM Maps ................................................................. II-47 3. Dam Failure .................................................................................................. II-51 5. History of Inland Flooding .............................................................................. II-52 5. Repetitive Loss ............................................................................................. II-54 D. Wildfires and the Urban Interface ........................................................................... II-56 1. Wildfire Hazard Profile ................................................................................... II-56 2. History of Wildfire in the Region ..................................................................... II-57 3. Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) ..................................................................... II-57 E. Hazardous Material Incidents ................................................................................. II-60 1. Overview ..................................................................................................... II-60 2. History of the Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPCs) .......................... II-60 3. Purpose of the LEPC ...................................................................................... II-61 4. Hazards Vulnerability Analyses ....................................................................... II-61 a. CAMEOfm, MARPLOT and ALOHA Update ................................................ II-62 b. Northeast Florida Hazardous Material Emergency Plan ............................. II-63 F. Terrorism and Domestic Security ............................................................................ II-68 1. Overview ...................................................................................................... II-68 Regional Hazards Analysis Table of Contents Volume 1-4 Northeast Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program a. Explosions ............................................................................................ II-68 b. Biological Threats.................................................................................. II-68 c. Chemical Threats .................................................................................. II-69 d. Nuclear Blast ........................................................................................ II-69 e. Radiological Dispersion Device ............................................................... II-71 2. The Regional Domestic Security Task Forces (RDSTFs) .................................... II-71 3. History of Events .......................................................................................... II-71 4. Vulnerability Assessments .............................................................................. II-71 G. Nuclear Power Plant Incidents ................................................................................ II-72 H. Tsunami ............................................................................................................... II-72 Regional Hazards Analysis Table of Contents Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program Volume 1-4 Northeast Florida List of Tables Table II-1 Hazards Identified in Florida .............................................................. II-2 Table II-2 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale .................................................. II-7 Table II-3 Northeast Florida Basin Hypothetical Storm Parameters ........................ II-9 Table II-4 Potential Tide Height(s) by County (in feet above NAVD88) ................. II-11 Table II-5 Enhanced Fujita-Pearson Tornado Intensity Scale ............................... II-27 Table II-6 U.S. Mainland Hurricane Strikes by State (1851-2006)......................... II-37 Table II-7 Major Hurricane Direct Hits on the U.S. Coastline, 1851-2006, by Month ........................................................................................ II-38 Table II-8a Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Passing within 100 NMi of Jacksonville, FL, 1870-2007 .......................................................... II-41 Table II-8b Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Passing within 100 NMi of St. Augustine, 1870-2007 ...................................................................... II-43 Table II-9a Summary for Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, 1870-2007 ................... II-45 Table II-9b Summary for Hurricanes, 1870-2007 ................................................. II-45 Table II-10 Definitions of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Zones ............. II-48 Table II-11 Flood Plain Acreage by County .......................................................... II-51 Table II-12 Dams in the Northeast Florida Region ................................................ II-52 Table II-13 Repetitive Loss Properties ................................................................. II-54 Table II-14 District IV Top Ten Section 302 Chemicals, 2007 ................................ II-62 Regional Hazards Analysis Table of Contents Volume 1-4 Northeast Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program List of Figures Figure II-1 SLOSH Grid – Northeast Florida .............................................................. II-10 Figure II-2 SLOSH Grid with Surge Values ............................................................... II-10 Figure II-3 Northeast Florida Storm Surge Inundation Zones ..................................... II-15 Figure II-4 Inland Wind Decay ................................................................................ II-18 Figure II-5 Max Inland Extent of Winds for Hurricanes Approaching the Gulf Coast ..... II-19 Figure II-6 Max Inland Extent of Winds for Hurricanes Approaching the East Coast ..... II-20 Figure II-7a ASCE 7-98 Wind Zones .......................................................................... II-22 Figure II-7b ASCE 7-98 Wind Zones .......................................................................... II-23 Figure II-7c ASCE 7-98 Wind Zones .........................................................................