Reliability Impacts of Increased Wind Generation in the Australian National Electricity Grid Mehdi Mosadeghy B.Sc., M.Sc. A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Queensland in 2015 School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering Abstract Wind power penetration has been consistently growing and it has been rapidly becoming a significant generation technology in many countries. However, the intermittent and variable nature of wind energy is a major barrier in wind power commitment. Wind speed fluctuations and unpredictability can affect the operation and reliability of power systems. Therefore, the impact of integrating large volume of wind generators on the system reliability needs to be carefully investigated and the reliability contributions of wind farms require to be evaluated for better integration of wind energy sources. Because of intermittency and variability of wind energy, conventional reliability evaluation methods are not applicable and different techniques have been developed to model wind generators. However, most of these methods are time-consuming or may not be able to capture time dependency and correlations between renewable resources and load. Therefore, this research intends to improve the existing reliability methods and proposes a faster and simpler approach. In this approach, wind power and electricity demand are being modelled as time-dependent clusters, which not only can capture their time-dependent attributes, but also is able to keep the correlations between the data sets. To illustrate the effectiveness of this framework, the proposed methodology has been applied to the IEEE reliability test system. In addition, the developed technique is validated by comparing results with the sequential Monte Carlo technique. Due to an increase in the wind power penetration level in Australia, this research also investigates the contribution of wind power in the Australian power system from reliability point of view. In order to calculate the reliability contribution of wind power, the proposed framework is implemented on the national electricity market at two different reliability assessment levels: generation and composite system levels. Moreover, the impacts of strategies such as coordinating hydro units with wind farms on the reliability of wind energy are investigated. Similar to wind energy, photovoltaic (PV) penetration level is increasing in the Australian power system, which can affect not only the reliability of the power system, but also the reliability benefit of wind farms. Therefore, in this thesis the impacts of solar energy on wind load carrying capability under different scenarios are also assessed. II Declaration by author This thesis is composed of my original work, and contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference has been made in the text. I have clearly stated the contribution by others to jointly-authored works that I have included in my thesis. I have clearly stated the contribution of others to my thesis as a whole, including statistical assistance, survey design, data analysis, significant technical procedures, professional editorial advice, and any other original research work used or reported in my thesis. The content of my thesis is the result of work I have carried out since the commencement of my research higher degree candidature and does not include a substantial part of work that has been submitted to qualify for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution. I have clearly stated which parts of my thesis, if any, have been submitted to qualify for another award. I acknowledge that an electronic copy of my thesis must be lodged with the University Library and, subject to the policy and procedures of The University of Queensland, the thesis be made available for research and study in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968 unless a period of embargo has been approved by the Dean of the Graduate School. I acknowledge that copyright of all material contained in my thesis resides with the copyright holder(s) of that material. Where appropriate I have obtained copyright permission from the copyright holder to reproduce material in this thesis. III Publications during candidature Peer-reviewed Journal Papers: 1. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Ruifeng Yan and Tapan K. Saha, “Impact of PV Penetration Level on the Capacity Value of South Australian Wind Farms” Renewable Energy (Elsevier), Accepted 25 July 2015, DOI:10.1016/j.renene.2015.07.072. 2. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Ruifeng Yan and T.K. Saha, “A Time Dependent Approach to Evaluate Capacity Value of Wind and Solar PV Generation” IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, early access, DOI: 10.1109/TSTE.2015.2478518. 3. Ruifeng Yan, Tapan K. Saha, Nilesh Modi, Nahid Al-Masood and Mehdi Mosadeghy, “The combined effects of high penetration of wind and PV on power system frequency response” Applied Energy (Elsevier) 145 (2015) 320–330. Peer-reviewed Conference Papers: 1. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Ruifeng Yan and Tapan K. Saha, “The Impact of Interconnectors on the Reliability Benefits of Wind Farms” Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference 2015, 15-18 November, 2015, Brisbane, Australia. 2. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Tapan K. Saha, Ruifeng Yan and Simon Bartlett, “Reliability Evaluation of Wind Farms Considering Generation and Transmission Systems” 2014 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 27-31 July, 2014, Washington, DC, USA. 3. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Tapan K. Saha and Ruifeng Yan, “Increasing Wind Capacity Value in Tasmania Using Wind and Hydro Power Coordination” IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 21-25 July, 2013, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Peer-reviewed Conference Papers (NOT INCLUDED IN THIS THESIS): 4. Andres A. Recalde, Tapan K. Saha, and Mehdi Mosadeghy. “Reliability evaluation with wind turbines and photovoltaic panels.” 2014 IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition (T&D-LA 2014), Medellin, Colombia. 10-13 September 2014. Abstract Conference paper (NOT INCLUDED IN THIS THESIS): 1. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Ruifeng Yan and Tapan K. Saha, “A New Methodology to Model Photovoltaic Systems in Reliability Assessment” 2015 Asia-Pacific Solar Research Conference, 8-10 Dec 2015, Brisbane, Australia. IV Publications included in this thesis 1. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Ruifeng Yan and Tapan K. Saha, “Impact of PV Penetration Level on the Capacity Value of South Australian Wind Farms” Renewable Energy (Elsevier), Accepted 25 July 2015, DOI:10.1016/j.renene.2015.07.072. This paper is incorporated in Chapter 6. Contributor Statement of contribution Mehdi Mosadeghy Simulation and modelling (100%) Result interpretation and discussion (80%) Paper writing (80%) Ruifeng Yan Result interpretation and discussion (15%) Paper writing and review (15%) Tapan K. Saha Result interpretation and discussion (5%) Paper writing and review (5%) 2. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Ruifeng Yan and T.K. Saha, “A Time Dependent Approach to Evaluate Capacity Value of Wind and Solar PV Generation” IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, early access, DOI: 10.1109/TSTE.2015.2478518. This paper is incorporated partially in Chapters 5 & 6 and mainly in Chapter 4. Contributor Statement of contribution Mehdi Mosadeghy Simulation and modelling (100%) Result interpretation and discussion (80%) Paper writing (80%) Ruifeng Yan Result interpretation and discussion (15%) Paper writing and review (15%) Tapan K. Saha Result interpretation and discussion (5%) Paper writing and review (5%) V 3. Ruifeng Yan, Tapan K. Saha, Nilesh Modi, Nahid Al-Masood and Mehdi Mosadeghy, “The combined effects of high penetration of wind and PV on power system frequency response” Applied Energy (Elsevier) 145 (2015) 320–330. This paper is incorporated in Chapter 5. Contributor Statement of contribution Ruifeng Yan Simulation and modelling (70%) Result interpretation and discussion (40%) Paper writing and review (40%) Tapan K. Saha Result interpretation and discussion (20%) Paper writing and review (20%) Nilesh Modi Result interpretation and discussion (20%) Paper writing and review (15%) Nahid Al-Masood Simulation and modelling (20%) Result interpretation and discussion (10%) Paper writing (15%) Mehdi Mosadeghy Simulation and modelling (10%) Result interpretation and discussion (10%) Paper writing (10%) 4. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Ruifeng Yan and Tapan K. Saha, “The Impact of Interconnectors on the Reliability Benefits of Wind Farms” Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference 2015, 15-18 November, 2015, Brisbane, Australia. This paper is incorporated partially in Chapter 4 and mainly in Chapter 5. Contributor Statement of contribution Mehdi Mosadeghy Simulation and modelling (100%) Result interpretation and discussion (80%) Paper writing (80%) Ruifeng Yan Result interpretation and discussion (15%) Paper writing and review (15%) Tapan K. Saha Result interpretation and discussion (5%) Paper writing and review (5%) VI 5. Mehdi Mosadeghy, Tapan K. Saha, Ruifeng Yan and Simon Bartlett, “Reliability Evaluation of Wind Farms Considering Generation and Transmission Systems” 2014 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 27-31 July, 2014, Washington, DC, USA. This paper is incorporated in Chapter 5. Contributor Statement of contribution Mehdi Mosadeghy Simulation and modelling (100%) Result interpretation and discussion (80%) Paper writing (80%) Tapan K. Saha Result interpretation and discussion (10%) Paper writing and review (10%) Ruifeng Yan Result interpretation