Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific India Jonah Blank C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4412z2 For more information on this series, visit www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0650-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: globe: jcrosemann/GettyImages; flags: luzitanija/Adobe Stock Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The U.S. Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) National Defense Strategy highlights the important role that U.S. allies and partners play in U.S.-China strategic competition. America’s strong and enduring relationships with our allies and partners offer the United States unique advantages in long-term competition with China—the United States is not competing with China on its own, but can draw from allied and partner resources, capabilities, and strengths that far exceed what China can bring to bear. As DoD focuses on long-term strategic competition with China, understanding how U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region are responding and adjusting their own approaches to China will be crucial to ensuring the success of U.S. strategy. This report on India is part of a project that aims to understand the perspectives of U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific as they formulate and implement their responses to China’s more assertive foreign and security policy behavior in the region and a more competitive U.S.-China relationship. The research also assesses how DoD, particularly the U.S. Air Force, can best deepen and improve its ability to work with allies and partners to maintain U.S. advantage in long-term strategic competition with China. The other reports in this series are available at www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence. The research reported here was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael P. Winkler (PACAF/A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project titled “Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo- Pacific” that assists the Air Force in evaluating U.S. and Chinese influence and assessing possible Air Force, joint force, and U.S. government options. This report should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in U.S.-China competition in the Indo- Pacific. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the project leader, Bonny Lin. Research was completed in September 2019. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air Force’s (DAF’s) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses, supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force. PAF provides DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. iii Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with DAF in September 2019. The draft report, issued in January 2020, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xii 1. Introduction: India in the Context of U.S.-China Competition .................................................. 1 Applying the Project Framework to India ................................................................................................ 4 Organization of This Report ..................................................................................................................... 8 2. India’s Geostrategic Importance, Institutional Outlook, and Desire for “Strategic Autonomy” in Diplomatic and Political Relations ................................................................... 9 India’s Geostrategic Importance ............................................................................................................... 9 Institutional Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 12 India’s Desire for “Strategic Autonomy” in Diplomatic and Political Relations ................................... 15 3. India’s Economic Relationship with China, and Country-by-Country Relationship Sketches .................................................................................................................................. 24 China as Key Trade Partner for India ..................................................................................................... 24 Country-by-Country Sketches of India’s Relations with Key Asian Nations ........................................ 27 Partners in Southeast Asia ...................................................................................................................... 31 Partners in South Asia/Indian Ocean Region ......................................................................................... 36 4. India’s Defense Calculus vis-à-vis China ................................................................................. 42 China as a Direct Long-Term Security Challenge .................................................................................. 42 Pakistan as India’s Most Immediate Near-Term Security Threat ........................................................... 45 China as Indirect Security Challenge via Pakistan ................................................................................. 48 5. Assessment and Outlook ........................................................................................................... 51 India Sees the United States as a Partner and China as a Rival—but Limiting Factors Remain ........... 51 India’s Distrust of the United States as Potentially Unreliable Partner .................................................. 52 India’s Inability to Compete with China Leads to Risk Aversion .......................................................... 54 Best Avenues for Partnership Include Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief, Maritime Domain Awareness, and Education ................................................................................................. 55 Outlook for Overall U.S.-India Relations ............................................................................................... 60 6. Options for the United States, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Air Force .................... 64 Options for the United States .................................................................................................................. 64 Options for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force ..................................................... 66 Appendix A. Methodology for Project Framework ...................................................................... 69 Appendix B. Overview of India’s Military ................................................................................... 77 References ..................................................................................................................................... 82 v Figures Figure 1.1. Relative U.S. and Chinese Influence in India