System Reoperation Study Phase III Report: Assessment of Reoperation Strategies California Department of Water Resources August 2017 System Reoperation Study Phase III Report This page is intentionally left blank. August 2017 | 2 Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................................1 -1 1.1 Study Authorization ....................................................................................................................................................................................1 -1 1.2 Study Area ..................................................................................................................................................................................................1 -2 1.3 Planning Principles .....................................................................................................................................................................................1 -4 1.4 Related Studies and Programs...................................................................................................................................................................1 -4 1.5 Uncertainties in Future Conditions ............................................................................................................................................................. 1-6 1.5.1 Climate Change ..........................................................................................................................................................................1 -7 1.5.1 Bay-Delta Conservation Plan ...................................................................................................................................................... 1-9 Chapter 2. California Central Valley Water Resources Background and Setting.......................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Basin Characteristics ..................................................................................................................................................................................2 -1 2.3 Water Management Facilities .....................................................................................................................................................................2 -9 2.3.1 Reservoirs ...................................................................................................................................................................................2 -9 2.3.2 Sacramento — San Joaquin River Delta Salinity and Flow ...................................................................................................... 2-12 2.3.3 Water Demands ........................................................................................................................................................................2 -15 2.3.4 Surface Water Availability and Time Management ................................................................................................................... 2-17 Chapter 3. Phase I and Phase II SRS Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 SRS Phase I — Plan of Study ....................................................................................................................................................................3 -1 3.2 SRS Phase II - Strategy Formulation and Refinement ............................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.2.1 Outreach and Vetting Process .................................................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.2.2 Tradeoff Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................................3 -3 3.2.3 Forecast-Based Operations Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 Lake McClure Strategy Formulation and Refinement ................................................................................................................................ 3-7 3.3.1 Lake McClure Conjunctive Management Tradeoff Analysis Assumptions ................................................................................. 3-7 3.3.2 Lake McClure FBO Tradeoff Analysis Assumptions ................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.3 Results of Lake McClure Preliminary Strategy Tradeoff Analysis ........................................................................................... 3-10 3.4 Strategies Advanced to Phase III ............................................................................................................................................................... 3-0 Chapter 4. Phase III Evaluation Approach ......................................................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Operational Components ............................................................................................................................................................................4 -1 4.1.1 Forecast-Based Operations ........................................................................................................................................................ 4-1 4.1.2 Groundwater Conjunctive Management ..................................................................................................................................... 4-2 4.1.3 Supplemental Spring Flow .......................................................................................................................................................... 4-2 4.1.4 Water Resources System Integration ......................................................................................................................................... 4-2 4.2 Evaluation Metrics ......................................................................................................................................................................................4 -2 4.2.1 Water Supply ...............................................................................................................................................................................4 -2 4.2.2 Ecosystem ...................................................................................................................................................................................4 -3 4.2.3 Flood Risk Reduction ..................................................................................................................................................................4 -5 4.3 Evaluation Tools .........................................................................................................................................................................................4 -5 August 2017 | i System Reoperation Study Phase III Report 4.3.1 CalSim-II Model ...........................................................................................................................................................................4 -5 4.3.2 Merced River Water Allocation Spreadsheet Models ................................................................................................................. 4-6 4.3.3 SWP and CVP Integration Spreadsheet Model .......................................................................................................................... 4-6 4.3.4 HEC-ResSim ...............................................................................................................................................................................4 -7 4.3.5 HEC-RAS ....................................................................................................................................................................................4 -7 4.3.6 Palantir ........................................................................................................................................................................................4 -7 Chapter 5. Phase III Reoperation Components, Strategies and Baseline Conditions .................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Phase III Reoperation Components ........................................................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1.1 Forecast-Based Operations ........................................................................................................................................................ 5-1 5.1.2 Conjunctive Management ........................................................................................................................................................... 5-2 5.1.3 Sacramento Valley Groundwater Basin .....................................................................................................................................