Commissioning School Places in Essex 2016-2021 Contents Commissioning School Places in Essex 2016 – 2021 Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................1 The county of Essex ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 Population ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4 The number of pupils in Essex schools .............................................................................................................................. 5 Number on roll by year group............................................................................................................................................. 8 Capacity of Essex schools ................................................................................................................................................ 10 The number of schools in Essex ........................................................................................................................................ 11 Academies ........................................................................................................................................................................14 Gender .............................................................................................................................................................................14 Single sex schools ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 Grammar schools ............................................................................................................................................................. 15 Ethnic groups .................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Cross border pupil movement .......................................................................................................................................... 17 School sixth forms ........................................................................................................................................................... 19 Post-16 provision at colleges in the further education sector ........................................................................................... 20 Apprenticeships .............................................................................................................................................................. 21 Children with special educational needs (SEN) ............................................................................................................... 22 Children in care ............................................................................................................................................................... 23 Independent schools ....................................................................................................................................................... 24 Commissioning School Places in Essex 2016 - 2021 Contents Births in Essex ................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Housing in Essex ............................................................................................................................................................. 26 Forecasting pupil numbers to 2021 .................................................................................................................................. 28 Appendices Appendix 1: Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 Appendix 2: Forecasting methodology and forecast accuracy ........................................................................................ 114 Appendix 3: Housing development data ........................................................................................................................ 123 Appendix 4: Local Plan Progress .................................................................................................................................... 143 Appendix 5: Special Education Data .............................................................................................................................. 148 Tables Table 1: Population estimates (2008 to 2015, mid-year estimates) ................................................................................... 4 Table 2: Number of pupils in schools (2011 – 2016) ..........................................................................................................5 Table 3: Cohort size across Essex Primary and Secondary schools ( January 2016) ........................................................... 8 Table 4: Number of schools as at August 2016 ................................................................................................................ 11 Table 5: Gender balance (January 2016) .......................................................................................................................... 14 Table 6: Single sex schools in Essex (January 2016) ........................................................................................................ 15 Table 7: Ethnic groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 16 Table 8: Movement into Essex (January 2015 and 2016) .................................................................................................. 17 Table 9: Movement out of Essex (January 2015 and 2016) ............................................................................................... 18 Table 10: School sixth form number on roll (January 2015 and 2016) ............................................................................... 19 Table 11: 16-18 year olds in FE colleges ........................................................................................................................... 20 Commissioning School Places in Essex 2016 - 2021 Contents Table 12: Apprenticeships starts by 16-18 year olds ......................................................................................................... 21 Table 13: Essex provision of special educational needs (January 2016) ......................................................................... 22 Table 14: Children in Care ( 2014 to 2016 ) ...................................................................................................................... 23 Table 15: Number of pupils at Essex independent schools (January 2016) ...................................................................... 24 Table 16: Birth statistics for Essex (2006 to 2015) ...........................................................................................................25 Table 17a: Housing Requirements in Adopted Local Plans .............................................................................................. 26 Table 17b: Future Housing Growth in Emerging Local Plans ............................................................................................ 27 Table 18: Actual and forecast pupil numbers .................................................................................................................. 28 Commissioning School Places in Essex 2016 - 2021 Introduction In its role as Commissioner of school places in Essex, the County Council compiles Commissioning School Places in Essex annually. It provides: • information on the current organisation of school places, and the existing capacities and number of pupils attending those schools; • forecasts of future pupil numbers; and • other contextual data. From this edition, Commissioning School Places in Essex 2016-2021 will provide the statistical tables whilst a second document Meeting the demand for school places in Essex 10-Year Plan (to be published at a later date) will provide the context and commentary information such as how any increases in pupil numbers might be accommodated, or how any surpluses could be addressed and opportunities that may exist for further expansion where required to meet housing demands. Together, these will help the County Council, schools, promoters, parents and local communities understand the need for school places and establish future demands. 1 Commissioning School Places in Essex 2016 - 2021 Section A: Information relevant to managing the supply of school places The county of Essex In population terms, Essex is one of the largest UK counties with a population of almost 1.4 million at the time of the 2011 Census. The 2014- based subnational population projections suggest that the Essex population will grow to over 1.5 million in the period to 2021. The largest Essex towns are Chelmsford and Colchester. The majority of the population live in smaller urban areas or in the county’s many rural communities. More detailed figures on Essex including its demographics can be found at