London Boroughs of Ealing, Hounslow and Hammersmith and Fulham JOINT RETAIL NEEDS STUDY UPDATE Volume 1: Final Report May 2010 ROGER TYM & PARTNERS Fairfax House 15 Fulwood Place London WC1V 6HU t (020) 7831 2711 f (020) 7831 7653 e [email protected] w www.tymconsult.com This document is formatted for double-sided printing. P1983 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................... i-xvi 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 Terms of reference ......................................................................................................... 1 Structure of study ........................................................................................................... 1 Context ........................................................................................................................... 1 Date of Study .................................................................................................................. 3 2 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POLICY .......................................................................... 5 PPS12: Local Spatial Planning ....................................................................................... 5 PPS4: Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth ........................................................ 5 Practice guidance on need, impact and the sequential approach ................................... 6 Competition Commission’s Investigation of the UK Grocery Market ............................... 7 London Plan ................................................................................................................... 7 West London Sub Regional Development Framework ................................................... 8 Local Development Framework progress ....................................................................... 8 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 10 3 CURRENT AND FUTURE STUDY AREA SPENDING ................................................ 11 Study area definition ..................................................................................................... 11 Population .................................................................................................................... 11 Expenditure data inputs ................................................................................................ 12 Retail spending ............................................................................................................. 13 Commercial leisure spending on food and drink ........................................................... 18 Changes in inputs since 2006 ....................................................................................... 20 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 22 4 CURRENT PATTERNS OF RETAIL AND LEISURE SPENDING ................................ 23 Household survey methodology ................................................................................... 23 Comparison goods spending patterns .......................................................................... 23 Comparison goods changes in spending since 2006 ................................................... 29 Convenience goods spending pattern .......................................................................... 32 Special forms of trading according to the household survey ......................................... 38 Commercial leisure spending on food and drink ........................................................... 39 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 42 5 RETAIL IMPACT ASSESSMENT ................................................................................ 45 Major retail developments ............................................................................................ 45 Methodology ................................................................................................................. 46 Impact of major developments ...................................................................................... 47 Other potential schemes ............................................................................................... 48 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 48 6 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR COMPARISON RETAIL FLOORSPACE........................ 51 Methodology and key assumptions .............................................................................. 51 Turnover performance .................................................................................................. 52 Claims on expenditure growth ...................................................................................... 54 Scenario A: Constant market shares ............................................................................ 56 Scenario B: Adjusted market shares ............................................................................ 59 Scenario C: Aspirational market shares ....................................................................... 60 Sensitivity testing .......................................................................................................... 62 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 63 7 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR CONVENIENCE RETAIL FLOORSPACE ...................... 67 Methodology and key assumptions .............................................................................. 67 Turnover performance .................................................................................................. 68 Claims on expenditure growth ...................................................................................... 68 Scenario A: Constant market shares ............................................................................ 69 Scenario B: Overtrading/under trading ......................................................................... 73 Scenario C: Aspirational market shares ....................................................................... 74 Sensitivity testing .......................................................................................................... 75 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 76 8 ASSESSMENT OF OUTPUTS AGAINST OTHER STUDIES ...................................... 81 Experian/GLA ............................................................................................................... 81 WLRNS 2006 ................................................................................................................ 82 Implications of differences ............................................................................................ 84 9 QUALITATIVE NEED FOR RETAIL FLOORSPACE ................................................... 85 Previous health check work .......................................................................................... 85 Household survey results ............................................................................................. 91 Trading performance .................................................................................................... 96 Index of multiple deprivation ......................................................................................... 97 Assessment of qualitative considerations ................................................................... 101 10 ASSESSMENT OF FOOD AND DRINK USES .......................................................... 103 Quantitative methodology ........................................................................................... 103 Quantitative outputs .................................................................................................... 103 Qualitative outputs ...................................................................................................... 105 11 NEIGHBOURHOOD CENTRES ASSESSMENT ....................................................... 107 Existing policy position and research .......................................................................... 107 Methodology for collecting data .................................................................................. 108 Diversity of uses ......................................................................................................... 109 Turnover of neighbourhood centres ............................................................................ 112 Audit of services ......................................................................................................... 114 Conclusions on neighbourhood centres ..................................................................... 118 12 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................... 121 Context ....................................................................................................................... 121 Need for additional floorspace .................................................................................... 121 Hierarchy of