The British Bridge World SUCCESSOR TO THE CONTRACT BRIDGE JOURNAL: MEDIUM FOR ENGLISH BRIDGE UNION NEWS ' Edited by TERENCE REESE VOLUME 12 December 1961 NUMBER 6 I Editorial Board BERNARD WESTALL (CHAIRMAN) GEOFFREY L. BUTLER KENNETH KONSTAM TERENCE REESE ALBERT DORMER ADVERTISING All enquiries should be addressed to tbc ADVERTISING MANAGER, THOMAS-DE LA RUE & CO. LTD., ~2 Middlesex Street, E.l · ~I other correspondence, in~/uding ~ subscriptions, to the Publishers: oore Batley Ltd., 35 Dover Street, London, W.l · Hyde Park 3601-2. : . Annual Subscription 35/- The British Bridge World is published 011 the 15th of each month lt6iuiJrrJ ... .J --printed on behalf of the proprietors, Thomas De .lA Rue & Co. f..td., by Moon Batlt1J1 Lltl. - 35 Dover Street, LAndon, W.l . 3 December, 1961 Contents Page Editorial 5- 6 It Started 200 Years Back, by Alec Traub 7- 10 First Camrose Trial, by Alan Biron 11 - 13 The Run Home, by Harold Franklin 14-21 Repeat of November Problems 22 Report on Bridge Pool A 23 Bridge Pool B 000 24-25 Directory of EoBoUo Affiliated Clubs 26 Christmas Order Form 27 0 0 0 You Say 0 0 o' 28-29 Book Reviews: The Acol System Today and Modern Bidding. 0. 30-32 One Hundred Up: December Problems ... ..·o 32- 33 One Hundred Up: Answers to November Problems 00 0 35-43 I 44 Result of November Competition 000 ooo Tournament World' 00 0 45-46 . ooo St. Dunstan's Raffle .. 0 46-47 EoBoUo Master Points Register 47 Diary of Events 48 4 'Editorial CAUTIOUS BEGINNING The first. two of those parrs· are Rejecting the normal journa­ comparatively new formatio listic practice of claiming uproari­ and I shall be surprised if o~; ous success for every sponsored ?lay.ers. do not have an advantage promotion, we will say at once In b1ddmg technique. that Bridge Pools have made an encouraging but not sensational END-GAME STUDIES start. It takes 2,000 lines to cover .The World Par Olympiad con­ £50 at 6d. a line, and so far tamed several good exercises in competitors have had a good end game technique, and the bargain. Most entries were for efforts of the ·Australian pro­ small amounts, and perhaps 6d. moters deserved better support. a line was too high. We shall We will publish some of the deals continue on the same principle when the promised bulletins arrive. for three months and then review Final scores will not be known progress. The report on the first until bidding claims have been competition appears on page 23. adjudicated. The 172 (which may increase to 178) amassed by NOT AFFEAR'D Rodrigue · and myself. seems to The announcement of the have been best in Britain. American team for the world ch amptonship· match· in February DOWNHILL strikes no terror into British· h~arts. That is said with no In his review of The Acol disrespect to the doughty warriors System Today Pedro Juan ex­ who, after many fluctuations presses surprise that a change of W~n the recent trial in which 16 suit after a negative response to plaJrs competed. The team in- an Acol Two (2·-2NT- 3 0) should not be classified as un- · cpia udesCan . a d'tan star, Enc. Murray, Ytng with Charles Coon of conditionally forcing. It never 8ost . ' has been in my learned works and With on' old foe Lew Mathe~ a young partner Ron van certainly was not so for that der p ' t Orten; and · a pair from noted freewheeler, S. J. Simon. That responder should be Nexas . ' Me rvm· K ey and Robert at I. allowed to pass a useless- misfit 5 seems to me a sensible safeguard COMPLEX for both players. Ten, nine, eight, seven shopping days to Christmas. Have MISTAKE IN TIMING you thought of a gift subscription In reply to my remarks last to the B.B.W.? Please do not month about "unidentified overlook the annotincement on knockers", Ewart Kempson quotes page 27. comments about the method of trial, made before the team was Speaking of ten, nine, eight, even known. seven, I was rather taken with My point was this his para­ the true story of an American graph beginning "Few shared my 1nother who complained that her enthusiasm for our Open team" child of five, having listened to gave the impression that "mis­ innumerable "count-downs" be­ guided experts with vested fore the launching of rockets on interests" had gone round "knock­ television, had learned to count ing" the ·team after it had been backwards and was engaged in selected. continual strife with his teacher. -:. ' . - _:__.~ ;_..:~:;::.;/;. -.~· ~ Three of the main ~ ~ontrib!t~ors to success at Torquay.: 'Mrs. Fleming; Harold Fr{mk/~ll, 511111 and man-on-the-~pot John Hammond. I With them is Eric Crowlwrsi who did /tis 1 - 1 .i· mz~(lzetumstiles. · L t I 6 It -Started 200 Years Back by ALEC TRAUB There was an old codger called to each answer depends upon how Bayes valid we consider the assumptions. Who led us all into a maze, The only FACT is that both But once we know rules opponents have followed suit Are not masters but tools twice. Here are the assumptions: We'll quickly emerge from the (I) The Oliver theory (36 per haze. cent). We do not know whether In the September issue of the the six outstanding cards are British Bridge World there was divided 3-3, 4-2, 5-1 or 6-0. This further correspondence regarding is obviously an assumption in the combination direct conflict with our estab­ 5432 lished fact. AK6 (2). The Laver theory (52-! per At the beginning of play the cent). We have noted. the exact tion of finding a 3-3 break cards played by each opponent 6 per cent. The problem is and so can state that only ~o~r er, and to what extent, that distributions are possible. This IS changes when both quite . correct, and to quote th.e follow to the AK. example given by Mr. PoY_Der, If figures were given:- West has played the 7-8 (m a~y per cent, about 43 per cent, nd East the 9-10.(also m ord er) a ·b·t·t· unchanged at 36 per cent. any ord er) the only possi I I tes is no justification for the are: figure, but either of the WEST EAST , others may be right. In any . (a) Q 1 8 7 10 9 . i :1' event, they can be completely (b) 8 7 Q. J 10 9 7 . J 10 9 reconciled. (c) Q 8 (d) J 8 7 Q 10 9 The number of possible hands •th (a) and (b) are each 167,960 Wid •th (c) and (d) each 184,756. an WI n dis­ . lify mattGrs we ca To simp d (d) and compare (a) The value we attach card (b) an 7 and (c). The figures given above tioned, Reese bases chapter 3 of resolve to 10 and II respectively, "The Expert Game" on Bayes. the "odds" quoted by Mr. Poyner. However, in the cases he gives This gentleman supports the Laver there is complete justification, for theory of 52t per cent, i.e., Il · we know that good opponents chances out of 2I. will be deliberately indiscriminate (3) The Telfer theory (about with these holdings. 43 per cent). We have noted the The effect of Telfer's assump­ exact cards played by each oppo­ tion is shown when we compare nent and so can state that only cases (a) and (c). In order to four distributions are possible. make the comparison easier, in­ However, we do not know whether stead of the figures 10 and 11 we the opponents have played their use the index figures of 90 and 99. cards honestly. As mathemati­ cians we have to consider whether (a) If West holds QJ87 and the cards played . by an opponent East 109 East's play to the first really disclose his holding. If it two tricks is forced. West, how­ costs him nothing he may very ever, can play two of his four well play his cards indiscriminately cards in twelve aifferent ways, of and unless· we have evidence that which two will be 7- 8 or 8-7. In he will not do so we must assume other words, if he plays indis­ that he will. criminately he will play the 7-8 or 8-7 fifteen times out of 90. This assumption is based on Bayes' postulate. In 1763 the (c) If West holds Q87 and East theorem of Thomas Bayes was 1109 neither is completely re­ . published posthumously. This stricted in his play to the first two theorem has been universally rounds. Each has six ways of accepted but the postulate to it playing his first two cards. If not. The latter provides that in each plays indiscriminately, one absence of knowledge to the third of the time West will play contrary we assume that all prior 7-8 or 8- 7 and ·one-third of the probabilities are equal. In this time East will play 9- 10 or 10-9. case: in the absence of knowledge So West's play of the 7- 8 in any as ~0 how the opponents will play . order will coincide with East's thetr cards, that they will play play of the 9- 10 in any order them indiscriminately. one-ninth of the time, i.e., in II It is interesting to note that cases out of 99. although Tommy B.