ANKARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ ÇEVRE SORUNLARI ARAŞTIRMA VE UYGULAMA MERKEZİ Ankara University Center for Environmental Studies ANKARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ ÇEVREBİLİMLERİ DERGİSİ Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences Cilt: 7 Volume: 7 Sayı: 2 Number: 2 Yıl: 2019 Year: 2019 Ankara – 2019 Elektronik / Online ISSN: 2146-1562 Tüm Hakları saklıdır. Bu derginin tamamı ya da dergide yer alan bilimsel çalışmaların bir kısmı ya da tamamı 5846 sayılı yasanın hükümlerine göre Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Sorunları Araştırma ve Uygulama Merkezinin yazılı izni olmaksızın, elektronik, mekanik, fotokopi ya da herhangi bir kayıt sistemiyle çoğaltılamaz, yayımlanamaz. All rights are reserved. Published content may not be copied or re-published without the permission of Ankara University Center for Environmental Studies. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Sorunları Araştırma ve Uygulama Merkezi Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences Elektronik / Online ISSN: 2146-1562 Cilt/ Volume: 7 Sayı/ Number: 2 Yıl/ Year: 2019 Yayın Sahibinin Adı/ Owner Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Sorunları Araştırma ve Editörler Kurulu/ Editorial Board Uygulama Merkezi adına Mehmet SOMUNCU (Editör/ Editor) Mehmet SOMUNCU Işıl KAYMAZ (Yardımcı Editör / Associate Editor) Sorumlu Yazı İşleri Müdürü / Publisher Manager Editör Danışma Kurulu/Editorial Advisory Board: Uğur DOĞAN Ali İhsan AROL, OrtadoğuTeknik Üniversitesi Yayın İdare Merkezi Adresi/ Correspondence Aysel ATIMTAY, OrtadoğuTeknik Üniversitesi Ankara Üniversitesi Dil ve Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi Ayşen ERDİNÇLER, Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Sıhhıye, ANKARA Christina GONNELLI, Universita Degli Studi Firenze Erwin BERGMEIER, University of Göttingen Yayın İdare Merkezi Telefonu/Phone Fatmagül GEVEN, Ankara Ünversitesi +90 312 3103280/1202 Federico SELVI, Universita Degli Studi Firenze Gökşen ÇAPAR, Ankara Üniversitesi Elektronik Posta Adresi/ Email Gülen GÜLLÜ, Hacettepe Üniversitesi [email protected] Günay KOCASOY, Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Hakan YİĞİTBAŞIOĞLU, Ankara Üniversitesi URL İhsan ÇİÇEK, Ankara Üniversitesi https://dergipark.org.tr/aucevrebilim Kaoru KASHIMA, Kyushu University http:// dergiler.ankara.edu.tr Latif KURT, Ankara Üniversitesi http://csaum.ankara.edu.tr Neil ROBERTS, Plymouth University Neriman ŞAHİN GÜÇHAN, Ortadoğu Teknik Yayının Türü/ Type of Publication Üniversitesi Yaygın süreli yayın/ Widely Distributed Periodical Nilgül KARADENİZ, Ankara Üniversitesi Selim L. SANİN, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sibel ATASAGUN, Ankara Üniversitesi Uğur DOĞAN, Ankara Üniversitesi Warren EASTWOOD, Birmingham University Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, yılda iki kez yayımlanan hakemli bir dergidir. Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences is a refereed journal, published twice a year. ii ANKARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ ÇEVRE SORUNLARI ARAŞTIRMA VE UYGULAMA MERKEZİ Ankara University Center for Environmental Studies ANKARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ ÇEVREBİLİMLERİ DERGİSİ Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences Cilt/ Volume: 7 Sayı/ Number: 2 Yıl/ Year: 2019 İçindekiler/ Contents Modeling of Stochastic Process of Implementation of Various Combinations of Dangerous Meteorological Phenomena in the Mountains of the Caucasus Mariam ELIZBARASHVILI, Elizbar ELIZBARASHVILI....................................................................1 Paleoclimate of Eastern Black Sea Region in Turkey and The Importance of Glacial Lakes and Their Sediment Record Türkiye’de Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesinin Paleoiklimi ve Buzul Göllerinin ve Sedimanlarının Önemi Ceran SEKERYAPAN………….……....................................................................................................8 Investigation of The Dynamics of Landscapes on The Basis of Vegetation Indication (Sample Area along Kura River) Peyzaj Dinamiğinin Bitki Örtüsü Gösterme Esasına Göre İncelenmesi (Kura Nehri Üzerindeki Örnek Alan) Mirnuh ISMAYILOV, Shahnaz AMANOVA, Ilaha GULIYEVA........................................................14 The Role of Anthropogenic Factors in the Transformation of Lankaran Zone Biomes Yegana IBADLI ILGAR…………….....................................................................................................26 Protected Areas in Azerbaijan: Landscape-Ecological Diversity and Sustainability Mirnuh ISMAYILOV, Emil JABRAYILOV……………......................................................................31 The Impact of Trophic Status and Climate Change on the Benthic Community in Lake Sevan, Armenia Karen JENDEREDJIAN, Susanna HAKOBYAN, M. Scott DEMYAN…………….............................43 Second Home Tourism in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey: Development Issue and Mobility Pattern Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde (Türkiye) İkinci Konut Turizmi: Gelişme Konusu ve Hareketlilik Deseni Mehmet SOMUNCU, Ayşe OKUYUCU, Merve ALTUNDAL ÖNCÜ...............................................63 Clustering the Problems of Sustainable Tourism Development in a Destination: Tsaghveri Resort as A Case Ioseb KHELASHVILI, Lela KHARTISHVILI, Merab KHOKHOBAIA……………..........................83 iii Analyzing Tourism Influence on Agricultural Products’ Market: A Case Study of the Mestia Municipality, Georgia Mariam SHARIA……………................................................................................................................98 Southern Caucasian Students’ Perceptions of Turkey and Turkish People Güney Kafkasyalı Öğrencilerin Türkiye ve Türk Algısı Yıldız DEVECİ BOZKUŞ, Eda BEKÇİ ARI.......................................................................................106 Some Demographic Trends in Borderline Regions of East Caucasus Mountains (Georgia) Mariam TSITSAGI, Nana KVIRKVELIA ..........................................................................................125 İklim Değişikliğinin ve İklim Değişikliğiyle İlgili Küresel Anlaşmaların Çevre Etiği Bakımından Değerlendirilmesi An Assesment of Climate Change and Global Agreements from the Perspective of Environmental Ethics Tijen İĞCİ, Nesrin ÇOBANOĞLU......................................................................................................130 Makale Kabul ve Yazım Kuralları/ Instructions for Authors ....................................................................................................................147 iv Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi 7(2), 1-7 (2019) Modeling of Stochastic Process of Implementation of Various Combinations of Dangerous Meteorological Phenomena in the Mountains of the Caucasus Mariam ELIZBARASHVILI1*, Elizbar ELIZBARASHVILI2† 1Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University 1, I. Chavchavadze Ave., Tbilisi Georgia 2Institute of Hydrometeorology, Georgian Technical University, 150 a, D. Agmashenebeli Ave., Tbilisi, Georgia Abstract: The mountainous regions of Caucasus are characterized by the exceptional variety of dangerous meteorological phenomena that often cause significant material damage and human losses. These dangerous meteorological phenomena often occur simultaneously and exacerbate the situation. For example, increased wind during heavy rains, fog during snowstorms, hurricanes with hail, etc. To reduce the negative effects of such phenomena, it is necessary to know their probabilistic characteristics in given area. These meteorological phenomena are independent of each other, therefore the physical process of their occurrence has stochastic nature and it can be investigated as a random process based on the well-known probability theorems of multiplication and addition. Using these theorems, the stochastic process of realizing various combinations of dangerous meteorological phenomena in the Caucasus Mountains is modeled. For the Caucasus Mountains, the most likely is the implementation of snowstorm, hurricane wind or hail in combination with dangerous fog. The occurrence probabilities of one of the complex events, probability of the joint implementation of complex of both events and the periods of risk recurrence are identified. Key words: Meteorological Phenomena, Mountains of the Caucasus. 1. Introduction The Central Caucasus is the highest part of the Greater Caucasus between the peaks of Elbrus (in the west) and Kazbegi (in the east). It extends along the Main Caucasus Range between the Azau and Chiper-Azau passes to the Jvari Pass at a distance of about 200 km. The highest peak of the Central Caucasus, like the entire Caucasus, is Elbrus (5642 m). The Central Caucasus is characterized by an exceptional variety of dangerous, including catastrophic, meteorological phenomena, often causing significant material damage, as well as human casualties (Alibegova and Elizbarashvili, 1980; Dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in the Caucasus, 1983; Elizbarashvili, 2017). A rather rich literature is devoted to the study of such phenomena (Elizbarashvili et al., 2012; Elizbarashvili et al., 2013; Elizbarashvili et al., 1983; Elizbarashvili and Zubitashvili, 2007; Elizbarashvili and Elizbarashvili, 2012; Elizbarashvili et al., 2014; Elizbarashvili et al., 2018; Varazanashvili, 2012). Back in the 80s of the last century, for the Caucasus as a whole, such dangerous weather phenomena as extreme temperatures and precipitation, frosts, strong winds, thunderstorms, hail, fogs, blizzards, dust storms, etc. were studied (Alibegova and Elizbarashvili, 1980; Dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in the Caucasus, 1983). In more detail for Georgia, these phenomena were cleared up somewhat later (Elizbarashvili et al., 2012; Elizbarashvili et al., 2013; Elizbarashvili et al., 1983;