Opdrachtgevers: Provinsje Fryslân en provincie Groningen Overstromingsmodel dijkring 6 Modelbouw en scenarioberekeningen Auteurs: C.A.H. Wouters T.J. Hoffman PR1134.10 november 2006 november 2006 Overstromingsmodel dijkring 6 Inhoud Lijst van tabellen.............................................................................................. iii Lijst van figuren ................................................................................................ v 1 Inleiding..........................................................................................1-1 1.1 Aanleiding..................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Doelstelling................................................................................................................1-2 1.3 Uitgangspunten .........................................................................................................1-2 1.4 Leeswijzer .................................................................................................................1-2 2 Bouw overstromingsmodel ................................................................2-1 2.1 Introductie in overstromingsberekeningen................................................................2-1 2.1.1 Afgeleide producten ......................................................................................2-1 2.1.2 Toepassingsmogelijkheden ...........................................................................2-2 2.2 Werking van SOBEK.....................................................................................................2-2 2.2.1 2D modelgebied ............................................................................................2-2 2.2.2 1D takken .....................................................................................................2-2 2.2.3 Koppeling 1D en 2D ......................................................................................2-3 2.3 Opbouw 2D modelgebied dijkring 6 ..........................................................................2-3 2.4 Opbouw 1D takken dijkring 6....................................................................................2-5 2.5 Initiële waterstanden in het model............................................................................2-7 2.6 Randvoorwaarden .....................................................................................................2-7 2.7 Bressen .....................................................................................................................2-9 2.8 Kwaliteitsborging.......................................................................................................2-9 3 Scenarioberekeningen.......................................................................3-1 3.1 Scenario 1: Prinses Margrietsluis ..............................................................................3-2 3.2 Scenario 2: Stavoren ................................................................................................3-4 3.3 Scenario 3: Gaast-Piaam...........................................................................................3-6 3.4 Scenario 4: Tsjerk Hiddessluis ..................................................................................3-8 3.5 Scenario 5: Oosterbierum ....................................................................................... 3-10 3.6 Scenario 6: Boonweg .............................................................................................. 3-12 3.7 Scenario 7: Wierum–Moddergat.............................................................................. 3-14 3.8 Scenario 8: Lauwersoog .......................................................................................... 3-16 3.9 Scenario 9: Warffum coupures open ....................................................................... 3-18 3.10 Scenario 10: Warffum coupures gesloten ............................................................... 3-20 3.11 Scenario 11: westelijk van Eemshaven coupures open........................................... 3-22 3.12 Scenario 12: westelijk van Eemshaven coupures gesloten ..................................... 3-24 3.13 Scenario 13: Holwierde ........................................................................................... 3-26 3.14 Scenario 14: Delfzijl zeesluis................................................................................... 3-28 3.15 Scenario 15: Borgsweer .......................................................................................... 3-30 3.16 Scenario 16: Carel Coenraadpolder......................................................................... 3-32 3.17 Scenario 17: Worstcase Scenario............................................................................ 3-34 4 Schade en Slachtoffers ......................................................................4-1 4.1 HIS Schade en Slachtoffermodule.............................................................................4-1 HKV LIJN IN WATER PR1134.10 i Overstromingsmodel dijkring 6 november 2006 4.2 Overzicht van de schade en slachtoffers................................................................... 4-2 5 Slotopmerkingen .............................................................................. 5-1 6 Referenties...................................................................................... 6-1 Bijlage A: Nikuradse ruwheid...........................................................................A-1 Bijlage B: Overzicht overstromingsberekeningen................................................ B-1 Bijlage C: Overzicht gebruikte gegevens............................................................ C-1 Bijlage D: Bodemhoogte overstromingsmodel ....................................................D-1 Bijlage E: Alle elementen die waterkeren en zijn verhoogd in het overstromingsmodel. ........................................................................ E-1 Bijlage F: Overzicht bresbreedtes, bresdebieten en overstroomd oppervlak. .......... F-1 ii PR1134.10 HKV LIJN IN WATER november 2006 Overstromingsmodel dijkring 6 Lijst van tabellen Tabel 2-1 Herclassificatie bodemgebruik in Nikuradse ruwheid.............................................................2-5 Tabel 4-1 Overzicht schade, getroffenen en slachtoffers .....................................................................4-2 HKV LIJN IN WATER PR1134.10 iii november 2006 Overstromingsmodel dijkring 6 Lijst van figuren Figuur 1-1 Dijkringgebied 6.............................................................................................................1-1 Figuur 2-1 Stroomschema overstromingsmodel .................................................................................2-1 Figuur 2-2 Eén- en tweedimensionale laag in SOBEK (bron figuur: SOBEK helpfile) ...................................2-3 Figuur 2-3 Vergelijking bodemhoogte AHN5 en uiteindelijke terreinhoogte grid......................................2-4 Figuur 2-4 Resultaat van ophogen lijnelementen tot kruinhoogte. ........................................................2-4 Figuur 2-5 Ruwheid grid dijkring 6 ...................................................................................................2-5 Figuur 2-6 Controle connecties van watergangen met terreinhoogte.....................................................2-6 Figuur 2-7 Overzicht watergangen overstromingsmodel......................................................................2-7 Figuur 2-8 Verloop windopzet .........................................................................................................2-8 Figuur 2-9 Verloop waterstand ........................................................................................................2-8 Figuur 2-10 Schematisch overzicht van de verschillende stappen van automatische bresgroei (aangepast uit de SOBEK helpfile) ...............................................................................2-9 Figuur 3-1 Overzicht van de breslocaties ..........................................................................................3-1 Figuur 3-2 Breslocatie Prinses Margrietsluis.......................................................................................3-2 Figuur 3-3 Maximale waterdiepte scenario Prinses Margrietsluis...........................................................3-3 Figuur 3-4 Breslocatie Stavoren.......................................................................................................3-4 Figuur 3-5 Maximale waterdiepte scenario Stavoren...........................................................................3-5 Figuur 3-6 Breslocatie tussen Gaast en Piaam ...................................................................................3-6 Figuur 3-7 Maximale waterdiepte scenario Gaast – Piaam ...................................................................3-7 Figuur 3-8 Breslocatie Tsjerk Hiddessluis ..........................................................................................3-8 Figuur 3-9 Maximale waterdiepte scenario Tsjerk Hiddessluis ..............................................................3-9 Figuur 3-10 Breslocatie Oosterbierum ............................................................................................3-10 Figuur 3-11 Maximale waterdiepte scenario Oosterbierum ................................................................ 3-11 Figuur 3-12 Breslocatie Boonweg..................................................................................................