ISSN 2045-4236 December 2012 Issue no. 78 Society activities CONTENTS The 2013 calendar of events starts a little later in the year than Bilateral relations 1 usual, on the evening of 6 th March, when there will be a talk by Lev Wood on a coast-to-coast trip across Madagascar, with the Politics 2 th next date 26 June for the AGM. Economic and social 6 The latest Society event was on Saturday 15 th October, with three Tourism 8 fascinating talks by Glyn Young on Durrell's captive breeding Minerals 8 programme, Ailie Tam on HIV/AIDS and Jonathan Paul on Wildlife 9 landscape evolution as well as music from Olga del Madagascar and a lively atmosphere helped by the large turn-out. Programmes 10 NGOs 10 Our website at www.anglo-malagasysociety.co.uk has a summary of the talks given for those unable to attend, together with much other useful information. This includes directions to the venue for our meetings, which is the Upper Vestry Hall of St George’s Church, Bloomsbury, London WC1A 2HR, two minutes’ walk from the British Museum. The next newsletter will be published in March 2013. Please send any material for inclusion as well as any changes in your contact details to the editor Julian Cooke, whose e-mail address is [email protected] . Bilateral relations There has at last been some good news on the re-opening of the British Embassy in Antananarivo, which was announced by William Hague in a written ministerial statement on 13 th October. The new Ambassador, Tim Smart, took up his post that month and the Embassy is due to be fully functional by March 2013. The FCO said that the re-opening would 'provide more effective systematic support to British business, a stronger trade and investment relationship with Madagascar, and full consular assistance to British residents and visitors' as well as allowing it to 'work more effectively with the international community to support 1 Madagascar’s return to a fully recognized constitutional government after free and fair elections'. The move was welcomed by Sir Mervyn Brown and there are more details in the press release at www.gov.uk/government/news/new-ambassador-to-madagascar-appointed? view=PressR&id=826799382 . Politics in Madagascar Towards elections The most striking recent development has been the proposal that neither Andry Rajoelina nor Marc Ravalomanana stand in the presidential elections due in May 2013, which have been the main focus in recent months as the country moves to fulfil the conditions of the road-map agreed for a return to constitutional order and international recognition. On 1 st October the National Electoral Commission said that it would employ some 23,000 agents for four weeks to establish a new list of voters, which the UN was due to fund to the tune of $340,000. The Minister of Finance, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, said that it was right that the transitional régime fund in part the elections, although to what extent was not clear beyond its initial commitment to find $8m; the German ambassador said that the government should not try to exploit the international community's generosity. The Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie said that it felt compelled to offer technical support to help avoid post-electoral conflict, although its summit later in the month was preoccupied with Mali and the Malagasy government was not invited to attend, having been excluded since 2009. The next day the forty-four members of the Conseil de Réconciliation Malagasy (CRM) were announced, comprising many of the pastors and elders (or Raimendry Mijoro) who had not been able to help find a solution previously and including some who were seen as too politically-involved to be rightly selected. Manandafy Rakotonirina, head of the MFM party and a leader of the Ravalomanana movement, criticised the opaque process in choosing the CRM while the Zafy movement said it would not recognise the council. The government and civil society held talks to discuss the issue which the prime minister, Omer Beriziky, said should be resolved by the CSC, the committee responsible for overseeing the road-map. The first week of October also saw renewed comment on the possible return from exile in South Africa of Ravalomanana, which his party said was due to be confirmed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) by the 18 th of the month in line with an earlier commitment to agree on this within 30-60 days of the Maputo summit in August. Rajoelina dismissed the possibility and on his own return from the UN summit in New York insisted that Madagascar was a sovereign state that did not need to heed countries such as the United States while the road-map was clear on who could be a candidate in the presidential elections, such as himself. Another major political affair related to the supposed accidental death of Nadine Ramaroson, the Minister for Population, when her uncle Alain, a prime mover in Rajoelina's rise to power, implicated both the head of the Gendarmerie Richard Ravalomanana and the vice-prime minister Hajo Andrianainarivelo in her demise. The latter rejected the claim as a political 2 manoeuvre, given that he might be standing for president in place of Rajoelina. Perhaps predictably, the next day armed forces arrived to search Ramaroson's house while his personal bodyguard of nine gendarmes was removed. He pressed on with his call for parliamentary commissions of enquiry into the affair as well as into rosewood trafficking. On 5 th October, at the time of his 76 th birthday, Didier Ratsiraka said that he would again return to Madagascar after a brief end to his exile in November 2011 and that he had mortgaged his Paris house to fund this more permanent stay. At a ceremony on 6 th October to mark the start of production at the Ambatovy nickel and cobalt mine, Rajoelina announced a number of social projects that would be funded by the $100m paid by the Chinese company WISCO and the $25m paid for the operating permit at Ambatovy. Members of the the opposition criticised what it saw as an unfair pre-election campaign as Rajoelina toured the country with a team of ministers while the civil society organisation KMF/CNOE called on the electoral commission to sanction them. The EU ambassador, Leonidas Tezapsidis, was reported in November to have also expressed concerns. The members of the Cour Electorale Spéciale, which would announce the results of the elections next year, were in turn announced on 13 th October; the eight magistrates were elected by their peers and led by Jean-Michel Rajaonarivony. On 19 th October Rajoelina promulgated the decree that would establish a special commission within the Supreme Court that would pronounce on the proposed amnesty under the road-map, although Ravalomanana was not expected to petition it. Leonardo Simao, the head of the SADC delegation on Madagascar, said during a visit to assess the possible risks posed by the return of Ravalomanana that it was not yet desirable but also indicated that it would not be possible for Rajoelina to stand for election if he prevented his rival's return. The heads of the army and police said that the decision was a political one which they would respect. Simao's visit had been postponed for a few days in part due to the debate over institutions such as the CRM, and he also raised the possibility of a postponement in the election timetable saying that stability and peace were more important. There were simultaneous visits by a military delegation of the SADC and by the new Secretary- General of the India Ocean Commisssion, Jean-Claude de l’Estrac, who proposed a term of two years for the new president after which Rajoelina and Ravalomanana would be able to stand. The two SADC delegations left with little to show, save for the rather unsurprising comment that the Malagasy people were divided over the return of Ravalomanana and a reminder that their government owed the SADC $6.3m in dues for the last four years. On 18 th October Rajoelina questioned whether the reported $71m cost of the election was necessary and also whether the international community would fulfil its promises, saying that it had only provided $239,000 against the $3m that the state had funded. On the 22 nd the United Nations did revise the projected cost to $66m, towards which nearly €16m had been committed by Switzerland, Norway and the EU, which also said that it was minded to provide further funds for health and education to allow the government to re-allocate resources to the elections. The amended Programme du Cycle Electoral à Madagascar was signed on 25 th 3 October, when Fatma Samoura of the UN called on friends of Madagascar to help provide the $40m of funds still needed. Indian Ocean countries did offer help in November although the World Bank said it would contribute. Ravalomanana formally announced his candidature for the elections on 29 th October, before the SADC had pronounced on his possible return, while Rajoelina's party again asserted that he could not stand given the criminal conviction against him. Rajoelina later indicated to a European parliamentary team led by the French MP Philippe Boulland, which had arrived the same day, that he was ready not to stand if Ravalomanana did the same, while there was a suggestion that other contentious candidates might be asked to step aside – Omer Beriziky said later in the month he did not expect any of the four presidents nor himself to stand, which he said was a widely-held view that many dared not express.