SPEED AND SECURITY KATHRYN E. BOUSKILL | SEIFU CHONDE | WILLIAM WELSER IV Perspective EXPERT INSIGHTS ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUE C O R P O R A T I O N Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/PE274. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation cross the world, there is a profound sense that life is which speed is just one particular force acting upon the landscape of speeding up, and the faster life gets, the more we have global risk and security. to adjust our norms to keep pace. In much the same The Perspective first reviews the concept of speed and the way that the streetcar once outpaced the horse and general interdisciplinary approach taken to explore the possibilities Abuggy (see Figure 1), the world finds itself in a transitional phase to of a faster future. A central thread is the hypothesis that this itera- greater speed. From computational processing in handheld technol- tion of acceleration will be more intense than prior ones, that it will ogy to instantaneous accessibility to goods and information, the introduce novel security threats, and that the scale and scope of the pace of almost everything is seemingly zooming beyond the tech- implications of speed will vary across social, cultural, and geographic nology it is replacing. This ramped-up pace and how we react to it categories. The following sections will present general findings from have the potential to fundamentally rework how we interact, think, a technological, historical, and social science literature review to and create. Speed can make life exhilarating—and unpredictable. introduce a theoretical backing to speed and security. The authors This RAND Perspective suggests that technological develop- then present high-level insights offered through three group discus- ments and social dynamics are working in tandem to shift society sions held across the United States among participants from a range into hyperdrive, which can usher in unprecedented security concerns. of backgrounds. The Perspective concludes with key points that the Despite the potential for increased speed as 2040 nears, the authors public and policymakers can consider in preparing for a faster 2040. assert that this phase of acceleration is neither uniform nor determin- Speed is an elusive, often paradoxical concept. In this work, istic. Without knowing the future, we can still have the foresight to speed is a heuristic designed to represent accelerated development and prepare for security in an age of increasing speed and find value in implementation of technologies across a host of domains: production, having collaborative discussions about the role of speed as a catalyst movement and transportation, communication, high-frequency trad- within future global risk and security. The reflections presented here ing and financial transactions, cognitive processing, data-sharing, are in no way exhaustive, nor do they speak for any one individual or information and knowledge transfer, weapon (e.g., missile) deploy- type of stakeholder. Hence, the aim of this work is not to provide a ment, natural selection and evolution, computational processing, col- concrete take on the future; rather it is to explore the range of ways in lective social organization, and cultural change. Speed readily lends Figure 1. The last horse-powered trolley in New York City, in 1917 In much the same way that the streetcar once outpaced the horse and buggy, the world finds itself in a transitional phase to greater speed. From computational processing in handheld technology to instantaneous accessibility to goods and information, the pace of almost everything is seemingly zooming beyond the technology it is replacing. SOURCE: Brown Brothers, 1917 (public domain). itself to being measured empirically (e.g., instructions per second, The irreducible concepts of speed and time require a delicate bal- miles per hour, communication exchanges, and computer process- ance: Accelerate too fast or hesitate a few seconds too long and risk ing power). Yet, speed is equally born of the perception of the person catastrophe. For example, when we think of train disasters, we tend thrust into it. Thus, existing quantitative measures fail to depict how to imagine a locomotive thundering around a bend and overturn- individuals, societies, and governments are grappling with the era of ing. But the converse is also possible—a train approaching a curve speed, as well as the ways in which conceptions of speed and time are too slowly can derail. More than speed, the physics of locomotive perpetually being constructed within the values, needs, and con- derailment also depend on track size and angle, train weight, shape straints of a particular context. of the curve, and a conductor’s agility. Hence, context, constraints, 2 and actions are critical components in moving safely. Grasping the full context of speed, mitigating its risks, and leveraging its benefits The irreducible concepts of speed and time similarly requires a holistic and collective framework. require a delicate balance: Accelerate too fast or hesitate a few seconds too long and risk Approach: An Engineer and an Anthropologist catastrophe. Walk into 2040 . Technology has seeped into virtually every aspect of life, but our that those 30 technologies can create. Drawing on the review and social worlds cannot be reduced to a set of technological specifica- on discussions with experts, the authors drafted four scenarios set in tions (Rosa and Scheuerman, 2009). Technologies are inextricably the year 2040, each depicting characters engaging with the benefits linked to social dynamics, cultural values, and political motives. At and pitfalls of speed. Three discussions were held in three geographic RAND, groups of interdisciplinary researchers unite to tackle the locations (New York, New Orleans, and San Francisco) with 50 total interplay between technological advancement and sociocultural participants to generate reactions to these scenarios of speed, as well change. This exploratory work relied on rich dialogues across engi- as the broader implications of acceleration. The participants repre- neering and the social sciences to consider both the hypothetical sented diverse professional industries, including design, law, agricul- bounds of technological advancement and the readiness of our gov- ture, national security, insurance, fashion, local and national politics, erning and social institutions to not just survive but thrive in the era multilateral diplomacy, film, financing, energy, journalism, advertis- of speed. This collaborative opportunity strengthened the rationale ing, and health care, and their ages ranged from 19 to 80. for asking questions about what technology means from a human- centered and context-specific approach. The authors believe that this Speed and Technological Adoption: Time to approach, and the productive tension it creates, can be a powerful Adapt? way to consider how to prepare for the world in 2040. The Great Acceleration refers to a period of acceleration in economic The authors began by reviewing the existing technological markets, in transitions of nature, and in machine computation, literature on speed along with the social science and philosophical beginning around the second half of the 20th century and continu- literature on cultural politics, social structure, temporality, and the ing to the present (Steffen et al., 2004; Steffen et al., 2015). The ontological experience of time. Performing scans of both sets of lit- synergistic interactions are related to the disruption of societal norms, erature in tandem resulted in a list of 30 potential disruptive technol- from governance to daily chores (Steffen et al., 2004; Steffen et al., ogies, as well as a range of cultural, social, economic, political, and 2015). Adoption of novel technologies driving these trends does organizational reactions to life in a high-speed society. Interviews not occur uniformly throughout a social system. The Diffusion of with 25 experts in the technology and security space corroborated Innovations (Rogers, 1962) shows the collapsing time span for the the list’s legitimacy and broadened the scope of benefits and risks 3 Early Majority (the first half of a society) and the Late Majority (the first commercially produced in 1879 (Kirby et al., 1990). It took subsequent 34 percent of society; The remaining 16 percent of society 45 years for the Early Majority of U.S. households to have access to is termed laggards) to adopt technologies that have altered the pace electricity. Similarly, the telephone’s first exchange was opened in of humanity through recent history (see Figure 2). These data sug- 1878 (Bell Telephone System, 1953), which revolutionized informa- gest dramatically reduced adoption times for time-saving consumer tion flow much like