Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology Publications 2013 Moving Forward in Global-Change Ecology: Capitalizing on Natural Variability Inés Ibáñez University of Michigan - Ann Arbor Elise S. Gornish Florida State University Lauren Buckley University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Diane M. Debinski Iowa State University, [email protected] Jessica Hellmann University of Notre Dame SeFoe nelloxtw pa thige fors aaddndition addal aitutionhorsal works at: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/eeob_ag_pubs Part of the Climate Commons, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, and the Meteorology Commons The ompc lete bibliographic information for this item can be found at http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ eeob_ag_pubs/21. For information on how to cite this item, please visit http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ howtocite.html. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology Publications by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Moving Forward in Global-Change Ecology: Capitalizing on Natural Variability Abstract Natural resources managers are being asked to follow practices that accommodate for the impact of climate change on the ecosystems they manage, while global-ecosystems modelers aim to forecast future responses under different climate scenarios. However, the lack of scientific knowledge about short-term ecosystem responses to climate change has made it difficult to define es t conservation practices or to realistically inform ecosystem models. Until recently, the main goal for ecologists was to study the composition and structure of communities and their implications for ecosystem function, but due to the probable magnitude and irreversibility of climate-change effects (species extinctions and loss of ecosystem function), a shorter term focus on responses of ecosystems to climate change is needed. We highlight several underutilized approaches for studying the ecological consequences of climate change that capitalize on the natural variability of the climate system at different temporal and spatial scales. For example, studying organismal responses to extreme climatic events can inform about the resilience of populations to global warming and contribute to the assessment of local extinctions. Translocation experiments and gene expression are particular useful to quantify a species’ acclimation potential to global warming. And studies along environmental gradients can guide habitat restoration and protection programs by identifying vulnerable species and sites. These approaches identify the processes and mechanisms underlying species acclimation to changing conditions, combine different analytical approaches, and can be used to improve forecasts of the short-term impacts of climate change and thus inform conservation practices and ecosystem models in a meaningful way. Keywords Climate change, environmental gradients, forecasting, range shifts, translocation Disciplines Climate | Ecology and Evolutionary Biology | Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment | Meteorology Comments This article is from Ecology and Evolution 3 (2013): 170, doi:10.1002/ece3.433. Rights Works produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The onc tent of this document is not copyrighted. Authors Inés Ibáñez, Elise S. Gornish, Lauren Buckley, Diane M. Debinski, Jessica Hellmann, Brian Helmuth, Janneke HilleRisLambers, Andrew M. Latimer, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, and Maria Uriarte This article is available at Iowa State University Digital Repository: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/eeob_ag_pubs/21 Moving forward in global-change ecology: capitalizing on natural variability Ines Ibanez~ 1, Elise S. Gornish2, Lauren Buckley3, Diane M. Debinski4, Jessica Hellmann5, Brian Helmuth6, Janneke HilleRisLambers7, Andrew M. Latimer8, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing9 & Maria Uriarte10 1School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 2Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 3Biology Department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 4Department of Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 5Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 6Environment and Sustainability Program and Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 7Biology Department, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 8Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 9National Park Service, Schoodic Education and Research Center and Acadia National Park, Bar Harbor, Maine 10Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, New York Keywords Abstract Climate change, environmental gradients, forecasting, range shifts, translocation. Natural resources managers are being asked to follow practices that accommo- date for the impact of climate change on the ecosystems they manage, while Correspondence global-ecosystems modelers aim to forecast future responses under different Ines Ibanez,~ School of Natural Resources and climate scenarios. However, the lack of scientific knowledge about short-term Environment, University of Michigan, Ann ecosystem responses to climate change has made it difficult to define set conser- Arbor, Michigan. Tel: +1 734 6158817; vation practices or to realistically inform ecosystem models. Until recently, the Fax: +1 734 7638965; E-mail: [email protected] main goal for ecologists was to study the composition and structure of commu- nities and their implications for ecosystem function, but due to the probable Funding Information magnitude and irreversibility of climate-change effects (species extinctions and No funding information provided. loss of ecosystem function), a shorter term focus on responses of ecosystems to climate change is needed. We highlight several underutilized approaches for Received: 26 July 2012; Revised: 22 October studying the ecological consequences of climate change that capitalize on the 2012; Accepted: 29 October 2012 natural variability of the climate system at different temporal and spatial scales. For example, studying organismal responses to extreme climatic events can Ecology and Evolution 2013; 3(1): 170–181 inform about the resilience of populations to global warming and contribute to the assessment of local extinctions. Translocation experiments and gene expres- doi: 10.1002/ece3.433 sion are particular useful to quantify a species’ acclimation potential to global warming. And studies along environmental gradients can guide habitat restora- tion and protection programs by identifying vulnerable species and sites. These approaches identify the processes and mechanisms underlying species acclima- tion to changing conditions, combine different analytical approaches, and can be used to improve forecasts of the short-term impacts of climate change and thus inform conservation practices and ecosystem models in a meaningful way. Introduction the scientific community has been approaching climate- change research and its impacts on societies through the The need to understand and forecast responses of com- use of climate scenarios for the next few decades (20– munities and ecosystems to climate change has become 100 years). However, this approach has also placed the increasingly urgent in ecological research (Pressey et al. issue of climate change and its consequences in a time 2007; Gilman et al. 2010; Pettorelli 2012). As a response, frame that is far beyond the one in which policy and 170 © 2012 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. I. Ibanez~ et al. Capitalizing on Natural Variability decision makers most frequently operate (5–10 years). In focus on the approaches we believe to be best to evaluate addition, the spatial scales of climate scenarios that can organisms’ acclimation potential to climate change, the be established with the best available tools and methods type of response that will likely drive major ecosystems’ (i.e., regional models) still have a much larger spatial scale changes in this time frame (~5–50 years). These than the ones often needed for actual decision-making approaches illustrate creative ways that supplement cur- (i.e., the local level) (Sinclair et al. 2010). The challenge rent research by leveraging information already present of effectively incorporating the information resulting from in the system of study to predict species’ short-term climate-change research into decision-making is thus acclimation potential to global warming. complicated by this “double conflict of scales.” By taking advantage of the intrinsic genotypic and We propose that one of the most effective ways to physiological variation that species exhibit in their resolve this conflict and to predict community responses responses to climatic variability – temporal at one loca- is to study how communities and ecosystems respond to