AS135 FILE COPY Vol. 1 Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized MEDIUM-TERM ECONOMIC POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF NEW ZEALAND (in three volumes) Public Disclosure Authorized VOLUME I MAIN REPORT April 24, 1968 Public Disclosure Authorized Asia Department Prior to November 21, 1967 Currency Unit New Zealand Dollar (NZ$) US$ 1 = NZ$ 0.719 US$ 1 million = NZ$ 719, 194 NZ$ 1 = US$ 1.39 NZ$ 1 million US$ 1,390,450 These rates are applied throughout this Report. On November 21, 1967, the new rate was established as follows: Currency Unit New Zealand Dollar (NZ$) US$ 1 = NZ$ 0. 892 NZ$ 1 = US$ 1.12 The New Zealand fiscal year starting April 1 and ending March 31 is used in.this Report unless otherwise stated. This report was prepared by a Mission which visited New Zealand in August 1967, consist- ing of' Messrs. David Kochav (Chief), Jack Baranson, Dieter Elz and Wolfgang Kaupisch. Miss Penny Davis prepared the regression analysis of imports and GDP, and helped with the statistical work. A preliminary draft was discussed by the Chief of the Mission with the New Zealand authorities, during a brief visit in December 1967. MEDIUM-TERM ECONOMIC POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN NEW ZEALAND TABLE OF CONTEMTS Page BAS'IC DATA MAP SUIvMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. THE IfIEDTATE PROBLEM 2 III. THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLE. 6 IV. OUTLOOK FOR BALANCE OF PAflENTS 11 Basic Assumptions 11 Trade Projections 11 Invisibles 13 Financing of the Deficit 16 Measures to Improve Balance of Payments 17 V. STRATEGY OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 20 Present Characteristics 20 Reorientation of Industrial Policy 22 Automotive Industry 25 Iron and Steel Industry 28 Pulp and Paper Industry 32 VI. IMPORT RESTRICTIONS, PROTECTION TO DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES AND RESOIJRCE ALLOCATION 35 Effects of Import Restrictions 35 Protection for Infant Industries 36 VII. THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM 41 Present Situation 41 Prospects for Expansion 41 VIII. INTERNATIEONAL TRADE RELATIONS 44 Relations with the United Kingdom 44 Relations with Other Countries 45 IX. INSTRUMENTS FOR ECONOMIC POLICY FORMULATION AND PLANNING 47 Present Weaknesses 47 Reorganization of Planning 17 ANNEX I - Projections of GDP and Imports in 1972/73 51 ANNEX II - The Criterion of Domestic Costs of Forcign Eachange 55 BASIC DATA Area (two main islands only) 102,000 square miles Population - March 1967 2.73 mJllion Estimated annual growth rate, 1961/66 1.8is% Gross National Product - March 1966/67 NZ$3,937 million Per capita NZ$ 1,h442. Annual real growth rate: 1954/55-1 966/67 4.3% 1960/61-1966/67 B8% 1965/66-1966/67 4.5% Sector Origin of GDP at Factor Cost - March 19g61/65 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 17% Manufacturing, Mining, Power 42% Construction 5% All Services 35% Percentage of GDP at Current Prices March Year 1965/66 1960/61-1965/66 Private consumption 63 63 Public consumption 13 13 Gross investment 27 25 Gross domestic savings 22 22 Exports, f.o.b. 20 21 Imports, f.o.b. 19 19 Government taxation revenue 24 24 March Year Resource Gap 1965/66 1960/61-1965/66 As a percentage of gross investment 18 11 June 1967 Change Over Money and Credit (NZs mil.) June 1966 Total money supply 776 -4.0 Total bank lending 872 8.0% Price Increases - 1960-1966 2.7% p.a. BASIC DATA (Cont'd.) June Year 1966/67 Average Rate of Change External Trade (Nz$ million) 1961/62-1966/67 1965/66-1966/67 Exports, f.o.b. 725.5 4.5% - 5eO% of which: Wool (24%) 173.9 -3.5% -25.0% P,eat (28%) 204.7 709V 4.1% Dairy products (28%) 205.0 7.0% 4.9% Imports, c.d.v. 721.5 7.3% - 1.0% Balance of Payments March 1966/67 (NZ$ million) Exports, f.o.b. 781.9 Imports, f.o.b. -719. 4 Net invisibles -232.4 Balance on current account -169.9 International Reserve Position As a percentage of imports, June 1966/67 25% IMF position, October 30, 1967 (US$ million) Quota 157 Drawings 144 of which: Compensatory drawings 29 Gross fund position 81. Credit tranche - standby 42 Credit tranche - other 39 June 30, 1967 External Public Debt (US$ million) Total debt outstanding 675.8 Net of undisbursed 633.0 Debt service ratio, 1965-1966 (service payments as a percentage of goods and services) 5-6% NEW ZEALAND NEW ZEALAND POPULATION 1966 .-. \< AWIangarci 2'1,S00 POPULATION OF MAJOR CENTERS SHOWN (CENSUS OF MARCH 22,1966) AUCKLAND S48 '30 Hamilton 63,0. T uranga 31,60 Rotorua 33, 0 7.0 N- o '>-°O \ 2Cihon '2~ -o>t,=/Nlir3,00 Plymnouti,,,.New 3 300 * NN ~ ~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - - r.137, 000 'Wanganui 38,23 Palmerston Norih4910 Mls te rt on 7 , D.13 Nelson 27,600 1 ,RLL[NGTON F, Nll'l'T 282,50( 20t// t L, un . B,a0 SII'41TCSIIURCH247,200 Timaru 27,900 DUNEDIN 108,700 Invercargill 20 0 20 40 60 80 I(20 SCALE OF MILES NOVEMBER1967 IBRD-21(,S SUMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The Present Situation 1i During the last two years New Zealand has been undergoing a difficult period characterized by a large deficit on current account, which amounted to about NZ$135 million (US$189 million) in the year ending October 1967. 1/ The increased deficit is due mainly to a reduction in export earnings from wool, which forms some 25-30 percent of exports. The decline in wool prices has been in part the result of a general slowdown in demand in industrial countries, but the main cause seems to lie in a shift towards a greater use of synthetic fibres, particularly in carpet production for which New Zealand crossbred wool is specially suited. 2. The recent period of balance of payments difficulties was preceded by a boom, resulting from increased export earnings combined with expansionary fiscal and budgetary policies. This led to a sharp rise in imports, instead of reserves being set aside for rainy days. Following the large increase in the current account deficit, the Govern- ment took fiscal and budgetary measures to contain inflationary pressures and thereby to reduce imports. It also engaged in large-scale external borrowing, on both long and short terms. 3. Following the 14.3 percent devaluation of the British pound, Nlew Zealand went somewhat further and devalued her dollar by 19.45 percent. The effects of the recent devaluation on New Zealand's balance of payments cannot as yet be confidently assessed. It appears, however, to have strengthened her competitive position towards Australia and other countries which have not devalued, especially with respect to non-agricultural commodities. The Basic Problem 4s. The present balance of payments difficulties reflect the basic weakness of New Zealand: she is a high-income country over- dependent on exports of a small number of primary commodities. These exports have generally done well in the past, in spite of cyclical fluctuations. But they are now facing prospects of a long-term price downturn, wool because of a replacement by synthetics, and dairy products because of a danger of losing the preferential market of the United Kingdom. This would occur if the United Kingdom as well as Denmark and Ireland join the EEC, since an extended EEC is likely to have large surpluses of butter. 1/ All New Zealand dollar figures throughout the report refer to pre- devaluation rates. - ii - 5. The Government has recognized the need for diversification and has encouraged industrial development in order to provide employment as wel:L as to replace imports. However, insufficient attention has been paid in the past to cost considerations. Sheltered by the quantitative restrictions on imports, which have been maintained since the 1930ts to safeguard the balance of payments, but which have in fact been serving also as a protectionist instrument, most industries operate at high costs and on a small scale. Thus, a large part of New Zealand's capital and labor resources is tied up in production of a wide range of goods, manu- factured to supply the domestic market. While industry has been the largest sector in terms of employment, it has made an insufficient contri- bution to export earnings or to net import savings. The Prime Minister in his statement announcing devaluation, emphasized the need to introduce structural changes in order to improve the use of resources and to make industry more competitive. The devaluation could indeed be conducive to the introduction of measures to that effect. Medium-Term Economic Policy and Development Strategy 6. Only if the industrial sector becomes internationally competi- tive can the dependence of the balance of payments on a few agricultural commodities be reduced. To accomplish this, manufacturing must selectively concentrate on those products which can be produced at competitive prices. In some branches this can be done by processing domestic primary products. In others it can be accomplished by taking advantage of the technological potential embodied in her highly educated population. Together with favorable climatic conditions, technology has played an important role in making New Zealand agriculture one of the most advanced in the world. On the other hand, because of the sheltering of industry from external competi- tion, this potential has not been fully realized as a primary factor in industrial development. 7. The most important single measure which can help make New Zealand manufacturing internationally competitive is its gradual exposure to compe- tition from imports.