Arab-Israeli Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars Praeger Security International Advisory Board Board Cochairs Loch K. Johnson, Regents Professor of Public and International Affairs, School of Public and International Affairs, University of Georgia (U.S.A.) Paul Wilkinson, Professor of International Relations and Chairman of the Advisory Board, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews (U.K.) Members Eliot A. Cohen, Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies and Director, Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University (U.S.A.) Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies (U.S.A.) The´re`se Delpech, Senior Research Fellow, CERI (Atomic Energy Commission), Paris (France) Sir Michael Howard, former Professor of History of War, Oxford University, and Professor of Military and Naval History, Yale University (U.K.) Lieutenant General Claudia J. Kennedy, USA (Ret.), former Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Headquarters, Department of the Army (U.S.A.) Paul M. Kennedy, J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History and Director, Inter- national Security Studies, Yale University (U.S.A.) Robert J. O’Neill, former Chichele Professor of the History of War, All Souls Col- lege, Oxford University (Australia) Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland (U.S.A.) Jusuf Wanandi, co-founder and member, Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Indonesia) Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International (U.S.A.) Arab-Israeli Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars Anthony H. Cordesman Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C. Praeger Security International Westport, Connecticut • London Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cordesman, Anthony H. Arab-Israeli military forces in an era of asymmetric wars / Anthony H. Cordesman. p. cm. ‘‘Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C.’’ Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0–275–99186–5 (alk. paper) 1. Israel—Armed Forces. 2. Arab countries—Armed Forces. 3. Middle East—Armed Forces. 4. Asymmetric warfare—Middle East. I. Title. UA832.C665 2006 355.00956—dc22 2006018359 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data is available. Copyright © 2006 by Center for Strategic and International Studies All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, by any process or technique, without the express written consent of the publisher. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 2006018359 ISBN: 0–275–99186–5 First published in 2006 Praeger Security International, 88 Post Road West, Westport, CT 06881 An imprint of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc. www.praeger.com Printed in the United States of America The paper used in this book complies with the Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National Information Standards Organization (Z39.48–1984). 10987654321 Contents ILLUSTRATIONS xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv 1. INTRODUCTION 1 PEACE AGREEMENTS AND THEIR IMPACT ON CONVENTIONAL WAR FIGHTING 3 ASHIFT TOWARD ASYMMETRIC WARFARE AND WARS OF ATTRITION 5 THE PROBLEM OF PROLIFERATION 8 THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF INTERNAL SECURITY THREATS 8 2. MAJOR TRENDS IN FORCE STRENGTH 11 THE IMPORTANCE OF FORCE QUALITY VS.FORCE QUANTITY 11 LOOKING AT A SNAPSHOT OF TOTAL FORCES 12 COMPARATIVE MANPOWER QUANTITY AND QUALITY 18 COMPARATIVE LAND FORCE STRENGTH 23 Comparative Land Force Manpower 23 Varying Mixes of Armor and Antitank Weapons 26 Varying Mixes of Artillery and Antiaircraft Weapons 32 COMPARATIVE AIR STRENGTH:QUALITY OVER QUANTITY 37 Comparative Air Force Strength 37 Comparative Land-Based Air Defense Forces 46 COMPARATIVE NAVAL STRENGTH:PERIPHERAL MISSIONS 47 3. TOTAL RESOURCES: RECAPITALIZATION, FORCE MODERNIZATION, AND IMPACT ON EFFECTIVENESS 50 COMPARATIVE TRENDS IN MILITARY EXPENDITURES 51 COMPARATIVE TRENDS IN ARMS IMPORTS 53 vi CONTENTS 4. THE MILITARY FORCES OF ISRAEL 63 ASYMMETRIC WARS OF ATTRITION 65 The Threat from Proliferation 66 SHIFTING FROM A CONVENTIONAL TO AN ASYMMETRIC EDGE 67 Israeli Approaches to Asymmetric Warfare 69 Rubber Bullets 70 House Demolitions 71 Urban Warfare 73 Targeted Assassinations 74 Dealing with Roadside Attacks and Retaliation 75 Attacks on Settlements and the IDF Response 76 Ground Raids by the IDF 76 Drives into the Gaza Strip and the West Bank 78 Use of Large-Scale Arrests 79 Attacking and Isolating the Palestinian Leadership 80 Use of Air Power 81 Israeli Use of Helicopters and Aircraft 82 Countering Palestinian Arms Smuggling and Manufacturing 84 WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GAZA STRIP AND THE WEST BANK 85 Separation, Security Barriers, and the ‘‘Fence’’ 86 What the Barrier Seems to Mean 89 BARRIER,BOUNDARY, OR BORDER?91 Bad Fences Make Bad Neighbors? 92 ADAPTING WHILE RETAINING CONVENTIONAL MILITARY STRENGTHS 93 Trends in Manpower and Total Force Strength: Active vs. Reserve Forces 96 The ‘‘Kela 2008 Plan’’ 99 Kushet (Rainbow) Plan 100 ISRAELI LAND FORCES 101 Land Force Transformation 105 Command and Control Changes 105 Main Battle Tanks 107 Other Armor 109 Antitank Weapons 110 Up-Armoring Lighter Vehicles and Support Forces 110 Artillery Forces 111 Asymmetric Warfare Capabilities 112 Other Aspects of Land Force Development 113 ISRAELI AIR FORCES 114 Modern Air Operations Are Joint Operations 118 Air Defense and Air-to-Air Combat Capability 119 Air Offense and Air-to-Ground Combat Capability 120 IAF Readiness and Training Standards 121 Current Superiority and Future Challenges 122 CONTENTS vii ISRAELI LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 122 C4I/BM and Sensor Systems 124 Short-Range Air Defense Systems 124 Readiness and Effectiveness 125 ISRAELI NAVAL FORCES 125 Surface Fleet Developments 125 Smaller Surface Ships 128 Submarine Forces 129 Amphibious Forces 130 Naval Aviation 130 The Navy’s Role in Asymmetric Warfare 130 Naval Readiness and Mission Capability 131 ISRAEL’S COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTERNAL SECURITY FORCES 132 Israeli Capabilities 134 Israeli Terrorist Groups 135 Internal Security vs. Human Rights and Political Impacts 136 ISRAELI WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 140 IRAN AS A WILD CARD 148 POSSIBLE IRANIAN RESPONSE 151 SHIFTS IN ISRAELI STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES 152 SHIFTS IN ISRAELI MISSILE DEFENSES 153 ISRAEL’S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 153 5. THE MILITARY FORCES OF EGYPT 157 FORCE SIZE VS.FORCE QUALITY 158 EGYPTIAN LAND FORCES 160 Force Structure and Major Deployments 162 Main Battle Tanks and Other Armor 162 Other Armored Forces 167 Antitank Weapons 167 Artillery 168 Air Defense Forces 168 Readiness and Modernization 169 EGYPTIAN AIR FORCES 169 Combat Air Strength 170 Force ‘‘Enablers’’ and Transport Aircraft 170 Ongoing Force Improvements 173 Readiness and Mission Capabilities 174 EGYPTIAN LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 174 Egyptian Force Structure 175 Modernization and Upgrades 175 Short-Range Air Defenses 177 Readiness and Mission Capability 177 viii CONTENTS EGYPTIAN NAVAL FORCES 178 Submarine Forces 178 Major Surface Forces 182 Missiles and Other Patrol Craft 183 Mine Warfare Capability 183 Amphibious Forces 184 Coastal Defense Forces 184 Naval Aviation 184 Readiness and Mission Capability 184 EGYPTIAN PARAMILITARY,SECURITY, AND INTELLIGENCE FORCES 185 Key Egyptian Security, Intelligence, and Paramilitary Forces 185 Major Internal Security Threats 188 Internal Security vs. Human Rights and Political Impacts 192 EGYPTIAN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 195 EGYPT’S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 199 The Sinai Contingency 200 The New Security Mission in the Gaza Strip 203 Egypt’s Other Strategic Challenges 205 6. THE MILITARY FORCES OF JORDAN 208 TRENDS IN JORDANIAN FORCE DEVELOPMENT 210 JORDANIAN MANPOWER 213 JORDANIAN ARMY 214 The Jordanian Army Command Structure 214 Jordanian Main Battle Tanks 218 Jordanian Other Armored Vehicles 219 Jordanian Antitank Weapons 219 Jordanian Artillery 219 Jordanian Antiaircraft 220 Jordanian Army Readiness and Effectiveness 220 JORDANIAN AIR FORCE 221 Fixed-Wing Air Units 221 Rotary-Wing Air Units 223 JORDANIAN LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 224 JORDANIAN NAVAL FORCES 224 JORDANIAN PARAMILITARY,SECURITY, AND INTELLIGENCE FORCES 225 Major Terrorist and Extremist Threats 227 Jordanian Counterterrorism 228 Security vs. Reform 230 JORDAN’S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 232 Jordanian Support of Palestinian Forces in the West Bank, Jerusalem, 232 and Israel Jordanian ‘‘Rescue’’ of Palestinians in the West Bank 233 CONTENTS ix Jordanian Cooperation with Syria 234 Jordan’s Current Security Challenges 236 7. THE MILITARY FORCES OF LEBANON 238 THE SYRIAN FACTOR 239 LEBANESE SECURITY AFTER SYRIAN WITHDRAWAL 240 THE TRENDS IN LEBANESE FORCES 241 THE LEBANESE ARMY 242 Major Combat Equipment 243 Training and Readiness 247 THE LEBANESE AIR FORCE 248 LEBANESE NAVAL FORCES 249 LEBANESE PARAMILITARY FORCES AND HEZBOLLAH 250 Nonstate Forces: Hezbollah 254 Nonstate Forces: Asbat al-Ansar 263 The Role of the Lebanese Security Forces 264 LEBANON’S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 266 8. THE MILITARY FORCES OF PALESTINE 268 THE OSLO ACCORDS AND THE NEW ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN WAR 271 THE DEATH OF ARAFAT AND THE VICTORY OF HAMAS:REDEFINING 272 PALESTINIAN POLITICS AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI MILITARY BALANCE HAMAS COMES TO POWER 273 THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY FORCES 274 Palestinian Authority Forces during the Peace Process 274 The