Accelerating South Africa’s energy transition with gas power and renewables www.ge.com/gas-power/future-of-energy In April 2021, the country announced it aims to reduce its annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Executive Although Africa contributes ~5 percent to global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, to 398–440mn tonnes the African Development Bank (AfDB) Summary expects the costs of climate change on per year (tpy) by 2030, the continent could rise to $50bn each 28 percent less than South Africa’s year by 2040, with a further 3 percent leaders must decline each year in GDP by 2050.1 its 2015-set targets South Africa, which generated 86 percent with the launch of an work urgently of its electricity from coal in 2020, sees updated draft of the addressing climate change as an urgent with international priority. Addressing this priority requires Nationally Determined strong commitments and, consistent counterparts policy and regulatory frameworks. Contribution (NDC). to reduce the The country has made progress. The 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, the Green impact of Transport Strategy which enhanced climate change. the recently implemented carbon tax Renewables are the fastest growing source are examples of the government’s of new power generation capacity and commitment to emissions reduction. electricity. Research shows South Africa’s The Nationally Determined Contribution energy mix will evolve to include greater is South Africa’s commitment in terms of amounts of renewables, even as coal the United Nations Framework Convention remains the dominant fuel beyond 2040. on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement (PA) to contribute to 2 Accelerating South Africa’s energy transition with gas power and renewables 2 Figure 1), gas power can serve as an enabler solutions to funding shortfalls, Executive Summary for greater renewables penetration and, (Continued) accelerate the retirement of coal assets, both of projects from beginning to end.5 South Africa’s energy needs are urgent. on overall emissions. The near-term impact Through proper coordination between all of coal-to-gas switching could represent sustainable energy is needed to transform participants, South Africa’s Gas Programme the country’s economic development. could be the inclusive approach which brings reduction in South Africa. The government As the country increases access to—and along workers and communities historically and key stakeholders continue to deliberate demand for electricity—renewables and reliant on the country’s vast coal sector. gas provide a powerful combination to on the social impact of a transition from address the CO emissions challenge. its current high emission economy to a 2 low-carbon climate resilient economy. The complementary nature of renewables GE believes that the accelerated With the country’s unemployment deployment of renewables rate sitting at a record high of over 30 solution to change the near-term together with gas power trajectory on emissions reduction. percent, large infrastructure projects could play a role in spurring economic can change the trajectory growth and creating opportunities for GE believes gas will not just for climate change, enabling jobs, new skills and industrialization. be a backup fuel but also the substantive reductions in new baseload capacity for the While there is no universal blueprint for emissions quickly, while in Coal Repurposing Programme implementing a coal-to-gas transition, many parallel continuing to advance case studies exist from countries like Poland, for many reasons. The focus of China and India that provide applicable the technologies for low or near this whitepaper is to elevate references on the socioeconomic impact zero-carbon power generation. the emphasis on renewables of transitioning to a greener economy.4 and gas power as the urgently needed solution to reduce carbon Beyond recognition of the It’s not an either/or proposition between emissions in the near term.3 importance of infrastructure roll renewables and gas, but rather a out for economic growth, other multi-pronged approach to reducing crucial considerations for South carbon emissions with renewables and gas power at its core.6 Africa as it embarks on its Gas renewables into the energy system. Programme include, building GE is uniquely positioned to play a partnerships between private and leading role helping customers navigate With large gas reserves in Mozambique, the energy transition through its scale, Angola, and other parts of the region (see breadth, and technological depth. Key SSA Countries with Largest Gas Reserves (2020) Total 334 Cameroon 5 Equatorial Guinea 5 Congo 10 Angola 14 Mozambique 100 Nigeria 200 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Reserves in Trillion Cubic Feet FIGURE 1 Source: Statista 2021 Accelerating South Africa’s energy transition with gas power and renewables 3 Introduction THE SOUTH AFRICA CONTEXT In October 2020, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa launched the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan to drive investment in infrastructure, local production of goods, employment stimulus implementation and development of the power sector.7 and sustainable electricity is South Africa’s most urgent need. The country seeks 4–6 GW of power in the near- term to ease current constraints.8 Industrial Research (CSIR), South Africa lost between R60 billion and R120 billion in 2019 due to load shedding. Thus, to transform the South African economy, spur re-industrialization and contribute to increased regional trade, a stable and reliable power supply is required.9 With ongoing technical and commercial a looming supply gap. The announcement Reliable power supply reforms at the state utility, Eskom, coincided with the release of a request the government expects new variable for proposals (RfP) for the procurement of is a prerequisite for capacity, including 2.6 GW of solar and 2,600 MW under the Renewable Energy wind to be added in accordance with the IPP Procurement Programme’s (REIPPP) economic development bid window 5, comprising 1,600 MW of and many industries Procurement Programme (REIPPP). onshore wind and 1,000 MW of solar PV. The South African government understands The Risk Mitigation IPP Procurement the over-reliance on coal poses a risk to by power sector climate change and its Climate Change technology agnostic approach could mean Commission is working to ensure thermal, renewable and storage solutions will COP21 commitments are met. Africa’s energy sector the procurement for gas an even more Currently, coal accounts for 86 percent of attractive option for the future of energy. problems need urgent the country’s energy mix and its ageing solutions. But South Africa’s energy needs 10 The country’s Just go beyond the short-term. Transition plan will ensure the move to a low-carbon energy future creates more The unbundling of Eskom’s generation, opportunities for the communities that transmission and distribution entities will are likely to be impacted the most. enable a competitive energy system that promotes increased investor participation. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) on 18 March 2021, announced eight preferred bidders for the Risk Mitigation IPP Procurement Programme (RMIPP), which aims to procure 2 GW of power to bridge Accelerating South Africa’s energy transition with gas power and renewables 4 The changing years with the launch of the drive industrialization and economic Renewable Energy Independent growth, nor combat climate change. energy landscape Power Producer Procurement Figure 2 below shows how South Africa’s (REIPPP) Programme. energy mix will evolve to include greater The continent’s energy needs are critical. amounts of renewables, even as coal remains Renewables are the fastest growing source According to the World Economic Forum, the dominant fuel beyond 2040 according of new power generation capacity and electricity demand will triple by 2040 to the International Energy Agency (IEA). electricity. This is driven by public awareness as incomes rise, populations grow, and An alternative to consider in the energy and greater concern for the environment, governments push their industrialization future narrative is a pairing of gas and lower associated costs for renewable power renewables. Government will need to design generation, and policies that incentivize the fossil projects is necessary to support transparent policies that support the large adoption of renewable technologies. The replacement of coal with gas and renewables. International Energy Agency reports more energy costs for the poorest in society. than half of the global renewable capacity added in 2019 achieved lower power costs South Africa’s revised Integrated Resource than the cheapest newer coal plants. lower CO emissions (<320g/kWhr) than Plan targets a decommissioning of 10 GW 2 other fossil fuels (~1,000g/KWhr for coal), In South Africa and parts of the region plans to supply 20 GW of the additional providing a lower-carbon alternative to with large gas reserves gas power can power needed with renewables and gas.11 be an enabler for broader renewables KEY DRIVERS FOR CHANGE renewables into the energy system. to the reduction of CO2 emissions. Addressing climate change is an The H-class technology has higher G A S A S A C L E A N E R power density. It can be deployed and urgent global priority—and the ENERGY SOURCE be operational at scale in approximately Africa. The country has seen an While renewables are the fastest coal plant's footprints,