United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Requesters July 2015 MOTOR CARRIER SAFETY Additional Research Standards and Truck Drivers’ Schedule Data Could Allow More Accurate Assessments of the Hours of Service Rule GAO-15-641 July 2015 MOTOR CARRIER SAFETY Additional Research Standards and Truck Drivers’ Schedule Data Could Allow More Accurate Assessments of the Hours of Service Rule Highlights of GAO-15-641, a report to congressional requesters Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found FMCSA—within the Department of GAO found that the January 2014 study issued by the Federal Motor Carrier Transportation (DOT)—issues rules to Safety Administration (FMCSA) to examine the efficacy of its hours of service address safety concerns of the motor (HOS) rule—a regulation that governs how many hours truck drivers transporting carrier industry, including on truck freight can work—followed most generally accepted research standards. drivers’ HOS. In July 2013, FMCSA However, FMCSA did not completely meet certain research standards such as began to enforce three new provisions reporting limitations and linking the conclusions to the results. For example, by of its HOS rule. GAO was asked to not adhering to these standards, FMCSA’s conclusion in the study about the review a 2014 FMCSA study on the extent to which crash risk is reduced by the HOS rule may be overstated. GAO rule, as well as the rule’s assumptions found that FMCSA has not adopted guidance on the most appropriate methods and effects. This report (1) compares for designing, analyzing, and reporting the results of scientific research. Without the study to generally accepted research standards, and (2) identifies such guidance, FMCSA may be at risk for excluding critical elements in research the assumptions used to estimate the it undertakes to evaluate the safety of its rules, leaving itself open to criticism. rule’s costs and benefits and the rule’s FMCSA made several assumptions and anticipated certain effects of the HOS driver-operation, economic, safety, and rule in the regulatory impact analysis. Specifically, to estimate the economic health effects. costs of the rule, FMCSA assumed that some drivers would lose a certain GAO identified research standards that amount of driving and on-duty time and then estimated the amount and cost of professional associations, academics, the work time lost. Further, FMCSA assumed that reduced work time could and GAO’s prior work have used. GAO increase a driver’s opportunity to sleep, leading to safety and health benefits. evaluated the 2014 FMCSA study Assessing the effectiveness of the HOS rule is difficult because of the limited against these standards. GAO also availability of representative driver schedule data (i.e., records of drivers’ work compared FMCSA’s assumptions hours). Nevertheless, GAO’s analysis of a limited sample of available data about how drivers would be affected by provides some insight into the rule’s effects and the extent to which they aligned the HOS rule against actual drivers’ with FMCSA’s assumptions and estimates. For example, according to GAO’s schedule data from 16 for-hire carriers analysis, some drivers at a sample of 16 for-hire carriers who worked the longest that cover the years 2012 through hours (over 65 hours per work week) reduced their work hours after the rule went 2014. These data include information into effect, a finding consistent with FMCSA’s assumptions that drivers working on over 15,000 drivers per year, but over 65 hours were more likely to be affected. However, GAO’s analysis found are not generalizable to the motor that drivers who worked less than 65 hours per work week also changed their carrier industry as a whole. schedules after the rule went into effect, a result not anticipated by FMCSA. What GAO Recommends The ability of FMCSA and others to assess the effects of rules, such as the 2011 GAO recommends that FMCSA adopt HOS rule, is impacted by the limited availability of representative driver schedule guidance outlining agency research data. No organization collects or maintains a centralized database with such data standards. FMCSA agreed with GAO’s that can be generalized to the motor carrier industry as a whole. Collecting recommendation. GAO also suggests schedule data has historically been difficult, but a recent statutory change that that Congress consider directing DOT requires carriers to electronically record and store these data provides a potential to study and report on how data source for the future. However, before these data can be used for research electronically collected driver schedule purposes several challenges would have to be addressed. First, there are data can be extracted, stored, and statutory limits on the use of these data for purposes other than enforcing motor analyzed in a way that addresses cost carrier safety regulations. Additionally, privacy and cost concerns must be and privacy concerns. resolved before these data could be made available for analysis. According to FMCSA officials, they do not plan to study how to use these data in a way that will address privacy and cost concerns, in part, because of the statutory limits. Given the potential value of these data to future regulatory analysis, it may be View GAO-15-641. For more information, important to provide Congress with information on how these data can be contact Susan Fleming, (202) 512-2834, or extracted, stored, and analyzed while addressing any privacy and cost concerns. [email protected] United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Background 6 The Field Study Followed Several Accepted Research Standards, but Did Not Report Its Limitations or Make Conclusions That Were Fully Linked to the Results 13 FMCSA Anticipated Several Effects of the 2011 Hours of Service Rule (HOS), and While Available Data Provide Some Insight, Data Limitations Hinder the Ability to Fully Assess the Rule’s Effects 22 Conclusions 42 Matter for Congressional Consideration 43 Recommendations for Executive Action 43 Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 43 Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 45 Appendix II Analysis of Data Analysis and Collection in FMCSA’s Field Study 54 Appendix III GAO Identified Assumptions in the Hours of Service Rule’s Regulatory Impact Analysis 69 Appendix IV Analysis of Driver Schedule Data 72 Appendix V Biomathematical Models of Fatigue 89 Appendix VI GAO Analysis of Vehicle Count Data 100 Appendix VII GAO Analysis of Crash Data 104 Page i GAO-15-641 Motor Carriers Hours of Service Appendix VIII Comments from the Department of Transportation 116 Appendix IX GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 118 Tables Table 1: Extent to which the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) Followed Several Accepted Standards for Designing, Analyzing, and Reporting the Results of Scientific Research in its 2014 Field Study 14 Table 2: Summary of GAO’s Findings on the Effects of the Hours of Service Rule (July 2013 to December 2014) 26 Table 3: Guidance and Reports Used to Identify Generally Accepted Research Standards 45 Table 4: Fatigue-Science Experts Interviewed 48 Table 5: Data Sources Used to Assess Possible Effects of the 2011 Hours of Service Rule 50 Table 6: Industry and Safety Stakeholders, Shippers, and Motor Carriers Interviewed 51 Table 7: Estimated Effects of Restart Nights during Duty Hours, by Treatment Group Construction 56 Table 8: Estimated Effects of Restart Nights during Duty Hours, by Treatment Group Construction and Industry Segment 58 Table 9: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Field Study Descriptive Statistics on Psychomotor Vigilance Test’s (PVT) Outcomes in Duty Periods 60 Table 10: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Field Study Psychomotor Vigilance Tests (PVT) Taken during Duty Periods by Restart Nights and Operation Type 60 Table 11: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Field Study Psychomotor Vigilance Tests (PVT) Taken during Duty Periods by Restart Nights and Observation Time 61 Table 12: Power Analysis of Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Field Study for Subpopulations 64 Table 13: Power Analysis of Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Field Study for Overall Population 68 Page ii GAO-15-641 Motor Carriers Hours of Service Table 14: Key Assumptions Included in the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Regulatory Impact Analysis for the 2011 Hours of Service (HOS) Rule 70 Table 15: Description of Seasons Used in Analysis of Seasonal Datasets 76 Table 16: Seasonal Comparison of Drivers by Average Weekly On-Duty Hours, per 8-Day Work Week for 16 For-Hire Motor Carriers (2012–2014) 77 Table 17:Seasonal Comparison of Drivers by Average Weekly On- Duty Hour, per 7-Day Work Week for 16 For-Hire Motor Carriers (2012–2014) 77 Table 18: Seasonal Comparison of Weeks by Weekly On-Duty Hours, per 8-Day Work Week for 16 For-Hire Motor Carriers (2012–2014) 79 Table 19: Seasonal Comparison of Weeks by Weekly On-Duty Hours, per 7-Day Work Week for 16 For-Hire Motor Carriers (2012–2014) 79 Table 20: Seasonal Comparison of Restart Use per Driver by Average Weekly On-Duty Hours, Using 8-Day Work Week to Calculate Average Weekly On-Duty Hours for 16 For- Hire Motor Carriers (2012–2014) 81 Table 21:Seasonal Comparison of Restart Use per Driver per Calendar Week by Average Weekly On-Duty Hours— Using 8-Day Work Week to Calculate Average Weekly On-Duty Hours for 16 For-Hire Motor Carriers (2012– 2014) 82 Table 22: Seasonal