POPULATION HISTORY IN A DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT: HOW IMPORTANT MAY NATURAL DISASTERS HAVE BEEN? Anthony Reid Australian National University ABSTRACT KeywordsNatural disaster, VP INTRODUCTION Masyarakat Indonesia, Volume 39, No. 2, Desember 2013 | 505 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 505 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM 506 | Masyarakat Indonesia, Volume 39, No. 2, Desember 2013 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 506 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM Population History In A Dangerous Environment: ..... INDONESIA TAKES SHAPE IN A QUIET CENTURY 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 507 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM 508 | Masyarakat Indonesia, Volume 39, No. 2, Desember 2013 Figure 1 Deaths in Indonesia from ‘natural’ (tectonic) disasters by century1 Map 1 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 508 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM Population History In A Dangerous Environment: ..... | 509 Major natural threats to Southeast Asia 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 509 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM 510 | Masyarakat Indonesia, Volume 39, No. 2, Desember 2013 2 ESTIMATING THE POPULATION EFFECTS OF MODERN ERUPTIONS 2 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 510 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM Population History In A Dangerous Environment: ..... | 511 et al. 1998). By 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 511 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM 512 | Masyarakat Indonesia, Volume 39, No. 2, Desember 2013 Table 1 Population Effects of Krakatau Eruption May 1883 on Two Java Residencies BANTEN BATAVIA if at popula- if at population Missing missing 1.6% tion 1.6% 1882 560,660 838,015 1883 538,186 569,631 31,445 835,943 851,423 15,480 1884 541,216 865,046 1,250 1885 528,696 588,005 59,309 - 1886 544,321 53,092 926,892 892,949 - 561,003 45,969 - Source: Boomgaard & Gooszen 1991: 116. 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 512 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM Population History In A Dangerous Environment: ..... | 513 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 513 4/10/2014 2:15:36 PM 514 | Masyarakat Indonesia, Volume 39, No. 2, Desember 2013 Table 2 Missing Population After 1918 1920 missing All Java 34,554,945 121,469 Kediri 1,990,538 2,135,536 144,998 Surabaya 2,445,082 2,396,520 2,531,409 134,888 Madura 1,820,126 Madiun 1,561,099 1,586,008 1,616,215 Surakarta 2,010,368 2,029,843 2,081,346 51,503 Rembang 1,611,420 1,641,859 1,668,313 26,454 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 514 4/10/2014 2:15:37 PM Population History In A Dangerous Environment: ..... | 515 Map 3 Administrative division of Java, c. 1935 00-MI-39,-No 2-2013.indd 515 4/10/2014 2:15:37 PM 516 | Masyarakat Indonesia, Volume 39, No.