Appendix A: Transit’s Five-Year Business Plan Update Report: TR-03-19 This is a summary of the Burlington Transit Five-Year Business Plan peer review, vision and growth plan initiatives. The Business Plan document will be based on the details in this summary, with a focus on the implementation of the growth plan initiatives, including their phasing and financial impacts. Dillon Consulting requests the City of Burlington Council provide feedback on these sections, so that any changes may be incorporated into the final Business Plan. 1. Introduction The 2020 – 2024 Burlington Transit Business Plan will guide the implementation of transit service improvements over the next five years. The Business Plan starts with a policy framework that defines a clear direction for Burlington Transit, and clear steps on how to get there. Burlington Transit is working on a vision statement that will be part of the final Five-Year Business Plan. It is important to note that a Business Plan does not provide details service or operational planning. The primary purpose of the plan is to ensure individual strategies, projects and activities are aligned and contributing to the Burlington Transit’s vision and policy objectives. This includes prioritizing and staging key decisions to fit within the City’s financial guidelines. The Business Plan is also an important communication tool for Burlington Transit that will clearly set out steps required to move towards the long-term direction of the City. Over the next five-years, the Business Plan will form the guiding document in which all other operational decisions and financial budgets should be built around. 2. Growth Forecast The Path Forward A key focus of the business plan is to identify the strategies and resources required to meet transit ridership growth targets. Ridership growth objectives for Burlington were identified in the 2011 Halton Region Transportation Master Plan, which targets a morning peak period internal transit mode share of 13.4 percent within the City of Burlington by 2031. This represents a significant growth from the 4.6 percent transit mode share that is forecasted to be achieved by the end of 2019 (a 216 percent increase in ridership, from 3,209,091 annual rides in 2019 to 10,763,637 annual rides in 2031). Over the five year life of this business plan, transit mode share is targeted to reach 8.3 percent by 2024, translating to 6,356,818 annual rides (a 98 percent growth in ridership from 2019; or 19.6 percent per year). To put this into context, over the past five years, Burlington Transit’s ridership growth averaged 1.9 percent per year, while other systems in Burlington Transit’s peer group averaged 4.3 percent per year. The 2024 target identified for Burlington represents a significant rate of growth over past performance and above what Burlington Transit’s peers have achieved over the past five years. This will be difficult to achieve in a short period of time without significant investment in transit, a focus on customer service and culture change, including a change in how transit services are delivered. 1 | P a g e Appendix A: Transit’s Five-Year Business Plan Update Report: TR-03-19 As illustrated in Table 1, the ridership growth target will move Burlington Transit ahead of many of its peers and in line with peer systems that have U-Pass agreements with post-secondary institutions (e.g. Kingston Transit, Guelph Transit and St. Catharines Transit). This suggests that the growth strategy should not only focus on supply-based solutions (e.g. increasing service levels), but also on solutions that influence demand. TABLE 1: PEER COMPARISON OF BURLINGTON TRANSIT 2024 RIDERSHIP GROWTH 2024 2017 Burlington Oakville Barrie Kingston Guelph St. Catherines Peak Bus 64 72 37 55 65 55 Revenue Hours 280,800 212,008 171,130 238,688 205,820 168,774 Revenue Hours 1.48 1.09 1.26 1.97 1.56 1.11 per Capita Ridership 6,356,818 2,945,877 2,677,396 6,145,809 6,476,108 5,124,463 Ridership per 33.6 15.18 19.75 50.74 49.14 33.73 Capita Riders / Hour 20.3 13.9 15.6 25.7 31.5 30.4 While population growth will also help grow ridership, Burlington’s population is only projected to grow by 3.7 percent by 20311. Between 2019 and 2024, the population is projected to grow by 3,259 people (from 185,911 in 2019 to 189,170 in 2024). If the existing trip rate (boardings per capita) is applied to new residents over this period, this would only result in 56,255 new rides (1.8 percent of the ridership growth target) being attributed to new residents. This means that to achieve this ridership target, existing and new residents will need to ride transit much more, creating a greater culture of transit use in the city. Service Hour and Fleet Investment (2020 – 2024) To accommodate the planned growth in ridership, Burlington will need to invest in the level of service provided to accommodate both an increased demand for service and to change travel behaviour. This will require an increase in the amount of service and the fleet required to deliver the service. The City of Burlington Development Charges Transit Background Study (2019) identifies that Burlington Transit’s fleet will need to grow by 38 vehicles between 2019 and 2028 to meet transit mode share target. Phased in over the five-year life of this business plan, this represents a growth in 19 vehicles by 2024 (from 60 to 79). Service hours will also need to grow to reach the mode share target. Work by Burlington Transit to support the Development Charges Study estimated that an investment in 100,800 annual revenue service hours is required over the next five years. This represents a 56 percent growth 1 Note: Population forecasts to 2031 provided in the 2018 Burlington Development Charges Transit Background Study 2 | P a g e Appendix A: Transit’s Five-Year Business Plan Update Report: TR-03-19 in service levels, which is a little lower than the 66 percent ridership growth, recognizing that ridership growth can lag behind investment by two to three years. The projected fleet, service hour and utilization growth is detailed in Table 2. Ridership numbers were calculated based on achieving Burlington Transit’s 13.37 percent mode share target in 2031, based on the ridership figures used in the Development Charges Study. These targets were used as a guide to determine the growth strategy for transit. TABLE 2: PLANNED INVESTMENT IN BURLINGTON TRANSIT (2020 – 2024) Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Peak Buses 50 54 58 62 65 Mode Share 5.34% 6.07% 6.80% 7.53% 8.26% PM Peak Rides 24,377 27,708 31,039 34,370 37,700 Annual Revenue Hours 214,240 230,880 247,520 264,160 280,800 Annual Ridership 3,838,636 4,468,182 5,097,727 5,727,273 6,356,818 Rides per Revenue Hour 20.8 18.6 18.6 19.3 20.3 3. Growth Strategies One of the primary purposes of a business plan is to focus actions taken by an organization so they are aligned with the vision, goals and strategies directions of a system. Burlington Transit has a mandate to significantly expand ridership in line with the mode share targets identified in the 2011 Halton Transportation Master Plan. As identified in Section 2, forecast ridership is targeted to increase from 3,209,091 trips in 2019 to 6,356,818 trips by 2024. To achieve this growth target, Burlington Transit must provide mobility to residents, employees and visitors of the city. In doing so, Burlington Transit must: be Customer-Focused in every aspect of how service is delivered be Forward-Thinking in how services are planned and delivered be Business-Minded and aligned with municipal directions The following section identifies a number of growth strategies that will be the focus for staff over the next five years. These reflect the Burlington Transit the vision, mission and strategic directions noted in the policy framework and will be supported by an updated organizational structure and an implementation and financial plan. These growth strategies are organized into the following themes: 1. Service Structure and Delivery 2. Mobility Management 3. Customer Experience 4. Travel Demand Management 3 | P a g e Appendix A: Transit’s Five-Year Business Plan Update Report: TR-03-19 1. Streamline Service Structure and Delivery The way services are structured and delivered defines the primary customer aspects of any transit system. Where services go, how often vehicles are scheduled, how long the trip takes, how accessible are stops, and how the service is delivered (focus on customer service) are all key factors in residents choosing not only which services to take, but if transit is an option for them at all. There are a number of strategic directions that will be implemented over the next five years to move towards this ridership growth target. These are described in more detail below: Strategy 1A: Move to a More Direct Grid-Based System Burlington Transit has already recognised the benefits that grid-based systems can bring and is making its first steps towards this goal in its September 2019 service change. In order for the grid network to be successful, there must be continued emphasis on: Intensification of land use along the arterial roadway network; Connectivity to the arterial grid to expand the market within a five-minute walk of the network; Improvements to the pedestrian environment at and connected to bus stops; and Investments in service levels to limit waiting times for customers that must now transfer between two arterial routes.